“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "But it’s also about asking the question, what is an economy is really for? Not only can the global economy not keep growing forever, growth isn’t even working for many of us in wealthy nations anymore: U.S. per-capita income has tripled since 1950, for instance, but the share of Americans who say they’re very happy has dropped over the last 30 years.But it’s also about asking the question, what is an economy is really for? Not only can the global economy not keep growing forever, growth isn’t even working for many of us in wealthy nations anymore: U.S. per-capita income has tripled since 1950, for instance, but the share of Americans who say they’re very happy has dropped over the last 30 years."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "Waste minimization is another way to reduce scale. Every year we dig up and process more than half a trillion tons of raw materials—and six months later more than 99 percent of it is waste. That can be fixed too: Ray Anderson’s Interface carpet company is a leader in this area, reducing manufacturing waste by 70 percent since the mid-1990s and saving over $300 million while doing it. Waste minimization is another way to reduce scale. Every year we dig up and process more than half a trillion tons of raw materials—and six months later more than 99 percent of it is waste. That can be fixed too: Ray Anderson’s Interface carpet company is a leader in this area, reducing manufacturing waste by 70 percent since the mid-1990s and saving over $300 million while doing it."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "We’ve gotten really good at economic growth. Since Adam Smith’s time, the number of people in the world has exploded from about 1 billion to nearly 7 billion. And in the last 200 years, Gross World Product has risen by nearly a factor of 60. The ecosystem has suffered as a result, hence the headlines we see every day: climate change, species extinctions, dwindling rainforests, water shortages, and all the rest. We’ve gotten really good at economic growth. Since Adam Smith’s time, the number of people in the world has exploded from about 1 billion to nearly 7 billion. And in the last 200 years, Gross World Product has risen by nearly a factor of 60. The ecosystem has suffered as a result, hence the headlines we see every day: climate change, species extinctions, dwindling rainforests, water shortages, and all the rest."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "How big is the global economy relative to the global ecosystem? This is crucial, because the economy resides totally inside the global ecosystem—the ecosystem gives the economy a place to operate, supplies all of its raw materials, and supports it with many critical services. In physical terms, economic activity is basically converting bits and pieces of the ecosystem to human uses: trees and forests into lumber and houses, grasslands and other habitats into farms to feed the billions of humans, and so on. How big is the global economy relative to the global ecosystem? This is crucial, because the economy resides totally inside the global ecosystem—the ecosystem gives the economy a place to operate, supplies all of its raw materials, and supports it with many critical services. In physical terms, economic activity is basically converting bits and pieces of the ecosystem to human uses: trees and forests into lumber and houses, grasslands and other habitats into farms to feed the billions of humans, and so on."

NationMaster - GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country

NationMaster - GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country: "Economy Statistics > GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country"

Reading Material — UN University OCW

Reading Material — UN University OCW: "Bijker, W. E. (2006b). Why and How Technology Matters. In Goodin, R. E. & C. Tilly (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis (pp. 681-706). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Available at: http://www.fdcw.unimaas.nl/staff/files/users/148/Bijker%20PoliticsOxfordHndb%202006.pdf"

nsf.gov - SRS US Doctorates in the 20th Century - US National Science Foundation (NSF)

nsf.gov - SRS US Doctorates in the 20th Century - US National Science Foundation (NSF): "The number and kinds of students seeking doctoral degrees during the last 25 years of the 20th century changed dramatically and included more women, minorities, and international students. As knowledge in many fields strained traditional discipline boundaries, new interdisciplinary programs as well as entire new fields developed. The costs associated with graduate education, and the way students paid for their education, became more complex. Career options available to doctoral graduates broadened, and traditional patterns of postgraduate employment changed. These and other changes, shifts, and trends are documented in this publication."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Five advanced technologies available only in Japan include true mobile digital TV (all the regular terrestrial channels at no cost), mobile wallet service (phones have smart cards embedded inside, letting you add applications like electronic money or a credit card), connected cars (with a navigation system connected to a cell phone), primary wave earthquake warning systems, and home-help robots."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The electronic world is replacing the natural world for leisure time in rich nations, University of Illinois at Chicago researchers believe.

Outdoor pursuits, ranging from camping to hunting, have entered a persistent and growing decline since 1987. Their statistical analysis shows that the increase in video games, movie rentals and other electronic entertainment most closely matches the decrease in camping and park visits, as opposed to income, vacation time, park overcrowding, foreign travel or other potential causes."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "French and Spanish researchers have found new evidence to support recent evolution in humans: genes for traits such as skin color and stature changed rapidly to allow humans to survive in new habitats.

The team identified 582 genes that have evolved differently in different populations in the past 60,000 years, including a dozen that protect people from obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and other diseases.

Read Original Article>>"

Technology Review: The Rise of Systemic Financial Risk

Technology Review: The Rise of Systemic Financial Risk: "The financial system as a whole is getting more complex. Financial institutions rely on ever more elaborate systems architecture and electronic communications across different counterparties and sectors. The number of parties involved, the nature of transactions, the volume of transactions as the market grows--taken together, the dynamics among these aspects of financial markets imply that the complexity is growing exponentially. No single human can comprehend that complexity. And as the system grows more complex, it is a well-known phenomenon that the probability of some kind of shock spreading through the system increases as well. Systemic shocks become more likely. Today, we are looking at some significant exposure to relatively rare events."

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out | Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria | Newsweek.com

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria Newsweek.com: "These trends represent a large, ongoing shift in the global economic order. Power is moving away from the traditional centers of the global economy—the Western nations—to the emerging markets. To put it more bluntly: the United States is in the beginning of a period of relative decline. It may not be steep or dramatic, but the fact that it's happening is clear. Even if one assumes a slowdown, the other big economies will still grow at two and three times the pace of the West. Over time they will take up a larger share of the global economy—and the United States and Western Europe will have thinner slices. This is not defeatism, it's math."

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out | Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria | Newsweek.com

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria Newsweek.com: "The United States is in the beginning of a period of relative decline. This is not defeatism, it's math."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "With the end of the oil era approaching, and climate change progressing faster than most models have been predicting, the utilisation of space is essential not only for communications but also for the logistics of survival through things such as weather satellites, agricultural monitoring, GPS and climate science,'"

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic's supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic's supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state's water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state's water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers. Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers."

Stand by for our diplomatic surge David Miliband - Times Online: "Third, we need to recognise that the balance of power in the world order is tilting east, with the emergence of India and China as world economies. That does not mean America’s position as the world’s superpower is under threat. It does mean these countries have a key role in their regions and globally."

Top 10 Scientific Discoveries - 50 Top 10 Lists of 2007 - TIME

Top 10 Scientific Discoveries - 50 Top 10 Lists of 2007 - TIME: "Early this year, an international team of scientists announced that analysis of a skull discovered in South Africa in 1952 revealed the first fossil evidence that modern humans left Africa between 65,000 and 25,000 years ago. Scientists determined the age of the skull, unearthed near Hofmeyr, South Africa, by testing the levels of radiation in sand that had filled the braincase. They figured it was about 36,000 years old — give or take 3,000 years — and matched skulls found in Europe, eastern Asia and Australia, in age and appearance, which supports the theory that modern man originated in sub-Saharan Africa and fanned out from there."

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "But the history of humanity is beginning to be read out from our genes, thanks to a detailed knowledge of the thousands of them that have evolved recently. 'We're going to be classifying these by functional categories and looking for matches between genetic changes and historic and archaeological changes in diet, skeletal form, disease and many other things,' Hawks says. 'We think we will be able to find some of the genetic changes that drove human population growth and migrations—the broad causes of human history.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Not all populations show the same evolutionary speed. For example, Africans show a slightly lower mutation rate. 'Africans haven't had to adapt to a fundamentally new climate,' because modern humanity evolved where they live, Cochran says. 'Europeans and East Asians, living in environments very different from those of their African ancestors and early adopters of agriculture, were more maladapted, less fitted to their environments.'Not all populations show the same evolutionary speed. For example, Africans show a slightly lower mutation rate. 'Africans haven't had to adapt to a fundamentally new climate,' because modern humanity evolved where they live, Cochran says. 'Europeans and East Asians, living in environments very different from those of their African ancestors and early adopters of agriculture, were more maladapted, less fitted to their environments.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "'Ten thousand years ago, no one on planet Earth had blue eyes,' Hawks notes, because that gene—OCA2—had not yet developed. 'We are different from people who lived only 400 generations ago in ways that are very obvious; that you can see with your eyes.'
Comparing the amount of genetic differentiation between humans and our closest relatives, chimpanzees, suggests that the pace of change has accelerated to 10 to 100 times the average long-term rate, the researchers write in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.'Ten thousand years ago, no one on planet Earth had blue eyes,' Hawks notes, because that gene—OCA2—had not yet developed. 'We are different from people who lived only 400 generations ago in ways that are very obvious; that you can see with your eyes.'
Comparing the amount of genetic differentiation between humans and our closest relatives, chimpanzees, suggests that the pace of change has accelerated to 10 to 100 times the average long-term rate, the researchers write in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA."

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Roughly 10,000 years ago, humanity made the transition from living off the land to actively raising crops and domesticated animals. Because this concentrated populations, diseases such as malaria, smallpox and tuberculosis, among others, became more virulent. At the same time, the new agriculturally based diet offered its own challenges—including iron deficiency from lack of meat, cavities and, ultimately, shorter stature due to poor nutrition, says anthropologist John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, another team member.
'Their bodies and teeth shrank. Their brains shrank, too,' he adds. 'But they started to get new alleles [alternative gene forms] that helped them digest the food more efficiently. New protective alleles allowed a fraction of people to survive the dread illnesses better.'Roughly 10,000 years ago, humanity made the transition from living off the land to actively raising crops and domesticated animals. Because this concentrated populations, diseases such as malaria, smallpox and tuberculosis, among others, became more virulent. At the same time, the new agriculturally based diet offered its own challenges—including iron deficiency from lack of meat, cavities and, ultimately, shorter stature due to poor nutrition, says anthropologist John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, another team member.
'Their bodies and teeth shrank. Their brains shrank, too,' he adds. 'But they started to get new alleles [alternative gene forms] that helped them digest the food more efficiently. New protective alleles allowed a fraction of people to survive the dread illnesses better.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Homo sapiens sapiens has spread across the globe and increased vastly in numbers over the past 50,000 years or so—from an estimated five million in 9000 B.C. to roughly 6.5 billion today. More people means more opportunity for mutations to creep into the basic human genome and new research confirms that in the past 10,000 years a host of changes to everything from digestion to bones has been taking place.
'We found very many human genes undergoing selection,' says anthropologist Gregory Cochran of the University of Utah, a member of the team that analyzed the 3.9 million DNA sequences* showing the most variation. 'Most are very recent, so much so that the rate of human evolution over the past few thousand years is far greater than it has been over the past few million years.'Homo sapiens sapiens has spread across the globe and increased vastly in numbers over the past 50,000 years or so—from an estimated five million in 9000 B.C. to roughly 6.5 billion today. More people means more opportunity for mutations to creep into the basic human genome and new research confirms that in the past 10,000 years a host of changes to everything from digestion to bones has been taking place.
'We found very many human genes undergoing selection,' says anthropologist Gregory Cochran of the University of Utah, a member of the team that analyzed the 3.9 million DNA sequences* showing the most variation. 'Most are very recent, so much so that the rate of human evolution over the past few thousand years is far greater than it has been over the past few million years.'"

Religion trends on the horizon for 2008 :: The Courier News :: Lifestyles

Religion trends on the horizon for 2008 :: The Courier News :: Lifestyles: "First, 2008 is the year of the 29th Olympiad to be held in Beijing, China. In the spectator section of the official Beijing Games Web site (http://en.beijing2008.cn/spectators) is a listing of places of worship for those attending the Olympic Games Aug. 8-24, and the Paralympic Games there from Sept. 6-17. The list includes five Buddhist temples, one Protestant church, five Catholic churches and one Islamic mosque."

Strategic News Service Blog » Blog Archives » My Top Ten Predictions for 2008

Strategic News Service Blog » Blog Archives » My Top Ten Predictions for 2008: "Most large IT corporations now make more than half of their revenues outside the U.S., and most other countries are showing GDP growth rates that will remain robust, even with a dip in the U.S. China now depends more on Europe than on the U.S. (and, interestingly, Europeans fear Chinese trade policies more than Americans do – 59% to 50%). India increasingly is doing work that may be outsourced, at the very high end (doctors reading medical imaging, engineers reviewing structural requirements), or may be destined for domestic or other non-U.S. clients."

Strategic News Service Blog » Blog Archives » My Top Ten Predictions for 2008

Strategic News Service Blog » Blog Archives » My Top Ten Predictions for 2008: "The global economy has now essentially “outgrown” the U.S., particularly in IT markets.
If this were a question, most economists would answer with an unqualified “No.” But my bet is that, for the first time, IT spending will continue to grow so quickly outside the U.S. that a decline in U.S. markets will not pull down total spending."

Official Google Blog: A world in motion

Official Google Blog: A world in motion: "In this regard, we are excited to announce that we have acquired Gapminder's Trendalyzer software, and we welcome the Trendalyzer team to Google. Trendalyzer generates moving graphics and other novel effects in the display of facts, figures, and statistics in presentations. In its nimble hands, Trendalyzer views development data—such as regional income distribution or trends in global health—as literally a world of opportunity. Like Google, Gapminder strives to make information more useful, and Trendalyzer will improve any function or application in which data might be better visualized."

Gapminder - Home

Gapminder - Home: "This website, powered by Trendalyzer, enables you to explore the changing world from your own computer. Moving graphics show how the development of all countries by the indicators you choose." ******

NOVA | World in the Balance | Earth in Peril | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Earth in Peril PBS: "According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, humans have altered approximately half of all the land on Earth for our own uses—around 22 percent for farming and forestry combined, 26 percent for pasture areas, and 2 to 3 percent for housing, industry, and roads. Population growth will necessitate further conversion of land, which in some regions can interfere with natural defenses against flooding, landslides, and erosion. Furthermore, experts believe that the abundance of agricultural topsoil on which our food supply depends is sharply diminishing due to overuse, urbanization, and other human-induced factors."

NOVA | World in the Balance | Earth in Peril | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Earth in Peril PBS: "Water covers roughly 70 percent of Earth's surface, but only 2.5 percent of it is freshwater, which humans need for irrigation, drinking water, and other everyday uses. According to the United Nations, the scarcity of freshwater due to overuse and contamination will be the second most pressing global concern in the 21st century, after population growth. On the map above, countries with less than 5,000 cubic meters of freshwater per capita are considered short of water. Experts believe that people may be able to replenish water tables with new water-saving irrigation methods, bioengineered crops that require less water, rainwater harvesting, and public information campaigns, but it will be centuries, if ever, before freshwater is plentiful again worldwide."

NOVA | World in the Balance | Earth in Peril | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Earth in Peril PBS: "Water covers roughly 70 percent of Earth's surface, but only 2.5 percent of it is freshwater, which humans need for irrigation, drinking water, and other everyday uses. According to the United Nations, the scarcity of freshwater due to overuse and contamination will be the second most pressing global concern in the 21st century, after population growth. On the map above, countries with less than 5,000 cubic meters of freshwater per capita are considered short of water. Experts believe that people may be able to replenish water tables with new water-saving irrigation methods, bioengineered crops that require less water, rainwater harvesting, and public information campaigns, but it will be centuries, if ever, before freshwater is plentiful again worldwide."

NOVA | World in the Balance | Human Numbers Through Time | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Human Numbers Through Time PBS: "World Population Growth, 1800-2050
At the turn of the 21st century, almost 75 million people were being added to the earth every year—about a quarter of the entire U.S. population. In the future, almost all population growth will be in the developing world."

NOVA | World in the Balance | Human Numbers Through Time | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Human Numbers Through Time PBS: "Over the next half century, our numbers will increase again, likely to a staggering nine billion people. Nearly all of this growth will take place in developing countries, where the demand for food and water already outstrips supplies."

NOVA | World in the Balance | Human Numbers Through Time | PBS

NOVA World in the Balance Human Numbers Through Time PBS: "...at the dawn of the first millennium A.D. the world's population was around 300 million people."

http://www.php.isn.ethz.ch/documents/ZB79_000.pdf
Th e Warsaw Pact participants explained how great the pressure from
the arms industry was. Th e greater part of the industrial capability was
directly and indirectly employed in making defence-related products. In
many cities and other areas, the population was dependent on the defence
industry. Th is was another reason why politicians and the military had to
maintain a very negative picture of the enemy. Th at way, the population
would continue to support defence policy. Th e military profi ted from
it; their jobs were not questioned. Armament had a dynamic of its own,
entirely divorced from the requirements of military strategy and logic.

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The second annual 'IBM Next Five in Five' is a list of innovations with the potential to change the way people work, live and play over the next five years:

1. It will be easy for you to be green and save money doing it.
2. The way you drive will be completely different.
3. You are what you eat, so you will know what you eat.
4. Your cell phone will be your wallet, your ticket broker, your concierge, your bank, your shopping buddy, and more.
5. Doctors will get enhanced 'super senses' to better diagnose and treat you.

Read Original Article>>"

Technology Review: Some US companies say China may be losing competitive edge as costs

Technology Review: Some US companies say China may be losing competitive edge as costs: "China may be losing its competitive advantage, mainly because of rising costs, according to a survey of companies compiled by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai."

The biggest library ever built | Ben Macintyre - Times Online

The biggest library ever built Ben Macintyre - Times Online: "The great Internet Library is more ambitious: it may one day contain the entire written culture, not just all the books, but countless millions of articles, half a million films, and billions of web pages. Kevin Kelly, “senior maverick” of Wired magazine, recently predicted in The New York Times that the online library would eventually contain “the entire works of humankind, from the beginning of recorded history, in all languages, available to all people, all the time”. Technology has made achievable what the librarians of Alexandria could only dream of: one vast, searchable, all-encompassing book, the complete history of the race. "

The biggest library ever built | Ben Macintyre - Times Online

The biggest library ever built Ben Macintyre - Times Online: "This digitising of human knowledge is the most profound cultural event since the invention of the printing press itself. In the third century BC the librarians of Alexandria sought to collect “books of all the peoples of the world”, and amassed perhaps half a million scrolls. But even the library at Alexandria was thought to contain perhaps as little as a third of all the books then written. "

Minyanville - NEWS & VIEWS-Article

Minyanville - NEWS & VIEWS-Article: "Another important driver of energy demand comes from the often overlooked global change in dietary trends. As global living standards increase, people want not just more food, but better food. While much of the energy required to harvest agriculture product comes from natural gas (in the production of fertilizer), oil also plays a significant role. Most farm equipment is run on oil-based products, as are the planes, trains and trucks used to transport agricultural product to consumers. The average distance the typical American meal travels from “farm to fork” is about 1,500 miles. It is estimated that about 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American. As per capita income continues to trend up in developing countries, food demand will continue to increase adding incremental energy demand. "

They are of potentially
global consequence with the biggest threat of all
coming from man's traditional enemy - humanity itself.
Whether the hobbyist gene-hacker, the mischiefmaking
virus-creator of software viruses, the apparently
socio-pathic suicide bomber, or the institutional
socio-pathology of the military, the unlocking of Pandora's
box of knowledge is making it easier than ever
to create self-propagating disruption some of which
have runaway and hence global catastrophic consequences.
Also the unintended side effects of an intended
`good use’ of the scientific and technological
knowledge might be disastrous. One such risk which
just recently has gained publicity and political attention
is a man-made greenhouse effect.

Moreover, our prospective
well-being depends on the future course of economic,
social and political systems - and not merely those in
the West. That these evolutions are hard to predict
was starkly illustrated in recent history by the collapse
of the eastern block.

It seems a wonderful time to be alive - greater prosperity
than ever before, technology advancing ever
onwards and upwards to improved standards of living,
and unprecedented capabilities for many to change
their lives for the better. We live at a time when we
have begun to understand life itself and in many parts
of the world begun to apply this knowledge to reduce
disease, improve health, and live longer. Developments
in bio-science include unravelling the human
genome, learning how to modify genes, and applying
stem cells for a wide variety of beneficial purposes. In
material science, we can already witness exploitation
of the extraordinary properties of matter at the nanoscale.
This is just the beginning of a revolution offering
exciting and potent new physical and chemical capabilities
which can be likened to the change brought
by cars to the age of the horse.

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks: "Crunches, ranging from resource depletion or ecological destruction. Misguided world government or another source of social equilibrium that stops technological progress. So, again, in judging the possibility of something like that, don’t think of whether right now at this moment or during the last few years the world has been moving toward global governance or further away from it, but think from a much bigger time perspective whether something like this could happen. We started out by being hunter-gatherer tribes, and then cities and city states, nation states and now regional forms of governance in different parts of the world might not be such a far-fetched idea. And again, listing bad risk here does not mean that one should either be in favor or opposed to international forms of governance. A lot of the things that are listed here that have beneficial effects could help produce risks overall. Dysgenic pressures, this would be evolutionary selection that could kick into effect at various points in our future and lead in the wrong direction. It’s not true that evolution through some natural law must always lead to better, more valuable, higher complexity. It can also evolve things in the other direction."

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks: "Now there is good news and bad news in this. On the one hand, since anthropogenic risks arise from human activity, they also in principle are within our power and ability to do something about. On the other hand, it is often extremely complex and difficult to change these risks that emerge from our human behavior. Here is another way you can divide different types of existential risks. Bangs: earth-originating intelligent life goes extinct in a relatively sudden disaster. So this is what comes most immediately to mind when one thinks of extinction scenarios. It is not the only type of existential risk. The point of using this terminology here is that it draws attention to the other, perhaps subtler ways in which we could suffer an existential disaster. Crunches: humanity’s potential to develop into post-humanity is permanently lost, although human life continues in some form. So here it is just useful to have a term for the potential state of flourishing that human civilization might one day be able to attain if everything goes well. I use the term post-humanity for this, just to have a label for it. Shrieks: a limited form of post-humanity is attained, but it is an extremely narrow band of what is possible and desirable. Whimpers: our post-human civilization is temporarily attained but then it evolves"

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks: "There are different ways you can carve up existential risks into different categories. One distinction one can make is anthropogenic risks that emerged in some way due to human activity. I believe that the real issue is the anthropogenic risks. Without going into details, our species has survived the non-anthropogenic risks for hundreds of thousands of years. They haven’t wiped out the human species yet, so this includes things like meteors, earthquakes and other things. So, if they haven’t managed to do this in the last 100,000 years, then it’s probably not going to happen in the next hundred years. The non-anthropogenic risks, on the other hand, resulting from human activity might very well pose a much greater threat over the next hundred years, because we are now doing a lot of things that we have never done before, and we will be doing a lot more of those things in the coming century, including particularly new technologies. So this is what I think should be the primary focus of efforts to reduce existential risk."

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks: "An existential risk is one where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. We have a lot of experience with other kinds of risks: dangerous animal, hostile tribes and individuals, toxic berries and mushrooms, automobile accidents, Chernobyl, Bhopal, volcano eruptions, earthquakes, droughts, tsunamis, wars, epidemics of different diseases, influenza, smallpox, AIDS. Those kinds of disasters have occurred many, many times throughout human history. And our attitudes towards risks have been shaped by trial and error in dealing with those types of risks. But even the worst of these catastrophes, as tragic as they might have been for the people immediately affected, and millions have been affected by some of these examples, if you zoom out and look at these from the point-of-view of humanity as a whole, even the worst of these disasters would be mere ripples on the great sea of life. They have not significantly affected the total amount of happiness or suffering there will have been. They have not determined or significantly shaped the future of humanity."

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks

People Database blog » Blog Archive » Artificial Intelligence and Existential Risks: "We can characterize risk in terms of three dimensions: Scope, which would be the number of people affected. Intensity, which would be how badly each affected person would be. And probability, the likelihood of its occuring given all the available information."

Waking Up In Time - Acceleration

Waking Up In Time - Acceleration: "Some, such as Vernor Vinge, a mathematician at San Diego State University, see the singularity to be consequence of technological acceleration, with ultra-intelligent computers creating an exponential runaway effect. But I believe technological progress to be but a phase in the overall pattern of development. Millions of years ago it was biological evolution that was accelerating. Ten thousand years ago the development of agriculture was speeding the rate of progress. A century ago it was industrial breakthroughs. Today it is information technology that is pushing the rate of development ever faster. Tomorrow we may be in a new phase of progress. The exploration and development of human consciousness could take over from information technology as an even faster arena of quickening."