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Jun 28, 2007
What are NCDs?
NCDs have been called diseases of civilization, Western diseases, diseases of affluence and lifestyle diseases. Simply put, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are chronic, non-infectious diseases that have gained in prevalence with the advancement of medicine, Western diets, tobacco use and sedentary modern lifestyles. NCDs are not curable, but they are preventable and can be manageable. The most common NCDs include cardiovascular disease (heart diseases), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), hypertension, diabetes mellitus Type 2, chronic respiratory disease and those cancers linked to tobacco use, poor diet and lack of activity.
Environmental Factors
Modernization, urbanization, technological advancements and medical discoveries have brought about a huge shift in human lifestyles. Medical advancements via disease vaccination and treatment have increased the average lifespan by (in many cases) virtually eliminating the risk of contracting a non-chronic, infectious disease. At the same time, modern conveniences have allowed humans to become more and more sedentary. What were once characteristic of lifestyles of only the most affluent sectors of society (lower risk of death by infectious disease, sedentary pursuits, lack of physical exercise, sugary diet and high fat consumption) have become commonplace to society at all levels.
Implications
The world has undergone an epidemiological shift where the average person is much more likely to develop an NCD than contract a fatal infectious disease. NCDs, a product of the modern global lifestyle, are now the major cause of deaths across the globe.
NCDs have been called diseases of civilization, Western diseases, diseases of affluence and lifestyle diseases. Simply put, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are chronic, non-infectious diseases that have gained in prevalence with the advancement of medicine, Western diets, tobacco use and sedentary modern lifestyles. NCDs are not curable, but they are preventable and can be manageable. The most common NCDs include cardiovascular disease (heart diseases), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), hypertension, diabetes mellitus Type 2, chronic respiratory disease and those cancers linked to tobacco use, poor diet and lack of activity.
Environmental Factors
Modernization, urbanization, technological advancements and medical discoveries have brought about a huge shift in human lifestyles. Medical advancements via disease vaccination and treatment have increased the average lifespan by (in many cases) virtually eliminating the risk of contracting a non-chronic, infectious disease. At the same time, modern conveniences have allowed humans to become more and more sedentary. What were once characteristic of lifestyles of only the most affluent sectors of society (lower risk of death by infectious disease, sedentary pursuits, lack of physical exercise, sugary diet and high fat consumption) have become commonplace to society at all levels.
Implications
The world has undergone an epidemiological shift where the average person is much more likely to develop an NCD than contract a fatal infectious disease. NCDs, a product of the modern global lifestyle, are now the major cause of deaths across the globe.
Jun 27, 2007
Foreign Policy: The Ideology of Development
Foreign Policy: The Ideology of Development: "What explains the appeal of development ideology despite its dismal track record? Ideologies usually arise in response to tragic situations in which people are hungry for clear and comprehensive solutions. The inequality of the Industrial Revolution bred Marxism, and the backwardness of Russia its Leninist offshoot. Germany’s defeat and demoralization in World War I birthed Nazism. Economic hardship accompanied by threats to identity led to both Christian and Islamic fundamentalism. Similarly, development ideology appeals to those who want a definitive, complete answer to the tragedy of world poverty and inequality."
Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil
Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil: "The thin layer of topsoil that covers the planet’s land surface is the foundation of civilization. This soil, measured in inches over much of the earth, was formed over long stretches of geological time as new soil formation exceeded the natural rate of erosion. As soil accumulated over the eons, it provided a medium in which plants could grow. In turn, plants protect the soil from erosion. Human activity is disrupting this relationship."
Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil
Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil: "Now fast forward to a trip in 2002 by a United Nations team to assess the food situation in Lesotho, a small country of 2 million people imbedded within South Africa. Their finding was straightforward: “Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future; crop production is declining and could cease altogether over large tracts of the country if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation, and the decline in soil fertility.” Michael Grunwald reports in the Washington Post that nearly half of the children under five in Lesotho are stunted physically. “Many,” he says, “are too weak to walk to school.”"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/virtual_human_dc
Canadian researchers have developed the most detailed model of a human yet, a movable "4D" image that doctors can use to plan complex surgery or show patients what ailments look like inside their bodies. Called CAVEman, the larger-than-life computer image encompasses more than 3,000 distinct body parts, all viewed in a booth that gives the image height, width and depth. CAVEman also plots the passage of time -- the fourth "D."
Canadian researchers have developed the most detailed model of a human yet, a movable "4D" image that doctors can use to plan complex surgery or show patients what ailments look like inside their bodies. Called CAVEman, the larger-than-life computer image encompasses more than 3,000 distinct body parts, all viewed in a booth that gives the image height, width and depth. CAVEman also plots the passage of time -- the fourth "D."
Jun 26, 2007
Scientists Report Virgin Shark Birth – (CNN – May 23, 2007)
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/05/23/virgin.sharks.ap/index.html
Female sharks can fertilize their own eggs and give birth without sperm from males, according to a new study of the asexual reproduction of a hammerhead shark in a U.S. zoo. Asexual reproduction is common in some insect species, rarer in reptiles and fish, and has never been documented in mammals. The list of animals documented as capable of this has grown along with the numbers being raised in captivity -- but until now, sharks were not considered a likely candidate.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH
Female sharks can fertilize their own eggs and give birth without sperm from males, according to a new study of the asexual reproduction of a hammerhead shark in a U.S. zoo. Asexual reproduction is common in some insect species, rarer in reptiles and fish, and has never been documented in mammals. The list of animals documented as capable of this has grown along with the numbers being raised in captivity -- but until now, sharks were not considered a likely candidate.
WFS Futurist Update
WFS Futurist Update: "The United States is no longer the biggest air polluter in the world. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China surpassed U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions by 8% in 2006. Other top emitters are the European Union, India, and Russia.
The growth of China's manufacturing sector, driven by increasing demand for Chinese goods globally, is one cause of this surge in emissions."
The growth of China's manufacturing sector, driven by increasing demand for Chinese goods globally, is one cause of this surge in emissions."
Jun 25, 2007
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Vision Robotics, a San Diego company, is working on a pair of robots that would trundle through orchards plucking oranges, apples or other fruit from the trees.
In a few years, troops of these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season.
Vision Robotics, a San Diego company, is working on a pair of robots that would trundle through orchards plucking oranges, apples or other fruit from the trees.
In a few years, troops of these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season.
Computers and the Internet - Hackers - Homeland Security - Cybersecurity - Russia - United States - New York Times
Computers and the Internet - Hackers - Homeland Security - Cybersecurity - Russia - United States - New York Times: "Whatever form cyberwar might take, most experts have concluded that what happened in Estonia earlier this month was not an example.
The cyberattacks in Estonia were apparently sparked by tensions over the country’s plan to remove Soviet-era war memorials. Estonian officials initially blamed Russia for the attacks, suggesting that its state-run computer networks blocked online access to banks and government offices.
The Kremlin denied the accusations. And Estonian officials ultimately accepted the idea that perhaps this attack was the work of tech-savvy activists, or “hactivists,” who have been mounting similar attacks against just about everyone for several years."
The cyberattacks in Estonia were apparently sparked by tensions over the country’s plan to remove Soviet-era war memorials. Estonian officials initially blamed Russia for the attacks, suggesting that its state-run computer networks blocked online access to banks and government offices.
The Kremlin denied the accusations. And Estonian officials ultimately accepted the idea that perhaps this attack was the work of tech-savvy activists, or “hactivists,” who have been mounting similar attacks against just about everyone for several years."
Jun 18, 2007
T H E H U M A N S E C U R I T Y B R I E F
http://www.humansecurityinstitute.ca/images/stories/HSBrief2006/figures.html
http://www.humansecurityinstitute.ca/images/stories/HSBrief2006/figures.html
Jun 5, 2007
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "There is a saying in heuristics and biases that people do not evaluate events, but descriptions of events – what is called non-extensional reasoning. The extension of humanity’s extinction includes the death of yourself, of your friends, of your family, of your loved ones, of your city, of your country, of your political fellows. Yet people who would take great offense at a proposal to wipe the country of Britain from the map, to kill every member of the Democratic Party in the U.S., to turn the city of Paris to glass – who would feel still greater horror on hearing the doctor say that their child had cancer – these people will discuss the extinction of humanity with perfect calm. “Extinction of humanity”, as words on paper, appears in fictional novels, or is discussed in philosophy books – it belongs to a different context than the Spanish flu. "
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "In addition to standard biases, I have personally observed what look like harmful modes of thinking specific to existential risks. The Spanish flu of 1918 killed 25-50 million people. World War II killed 60 million people. 10^7 is the order of the largest catastrophes in humanity’s written history. Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the entire human species, seem to trigger a different mode of thinking - enter into a “separate magisterium”."
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk
The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "One of many biases not discussed in this chapter describes the biasing effect of not knowing what we do not know."
Jun 2, 2007
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
It is a commonplace complaint among commentators on the human condition that technology seems to have outstripped moral inquiry. As Isaac Asimov put it, "The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." But in the past decade, a realization that technology can after all be a force for the greater good has come about. The freedom of communication brought about by the Internet has been of enormous value in opening eyes and aspirations to possibilities yet to come.
It is a commonplace complaint among commentators on the human condition that technology seems to have outstripped moral inquiry. As Isaac Asimov put it, "The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." But in the past decade, a realization that technology can after all be a force for the greater good has come about. The freedom of communication brought about by the Internet has been of enormous value in opening eyes and aspirations to possibilities yet to come.
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
In a wealthy country, natural resources such as farmland are worth more but only by a small amount, mostly because they can be more efficiently used. The fraction of total wealth contributed by natural resources in a wealthy country is only 2 percent, as compared to 26 percent in a poor one. The vast majority of the wealth in high-income countries is intangible: it is further broken down by the report to show that roughly half of it represents people's education and skills, and the other half the value of the institutions—in other words, the opportunities the society gives its citizens to turn efforts into value.
In a wealthy country, natural resources such as farmland are worth more but only by a small amount, mostly because they can be more efficiently used. The fraction of total wealth contributed by natural resources in a wealthy country is only 2 percent, as compared to 26 percent in a poor one. The vast majority of the wealth in high-income countries is intangible: it is further broken down by the report to show that roughly half of it represents people's education and skills, and the other half the value of the institutions—in other words, the opportunities the society gives its citizens to turn efforts into value.
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Corporate AIs will almost certainly start out self-interested, and evolution favors effective self-interest. It has been suggested by commentators such as Steven Pinker, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Jeff Hawkins, that AIs would not have the "baser" human instincts built in and thus would not need moral restraints. But it should be clear they could be programmed with baser instincts, and it seems likely that corporate ones will be aggressive, opportunistic, and selfish, and that military ones will be programmed with different but equally disturbing motivations.
Corporate AIs will almost certainly start out self-interested, and evolution favors effective self-interest. It has been suggested by commentators such as Steven Pinker, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Jeff Hawkins, that AIs would not have the "baser" human instincts built in and thus would not need moral restraints. But it should be clear they could be programmed with baser instincts, and it seems likely that corporate ones will be aggressive, opportunistic, and selfish, and that military ones will be programmed with different but equally disturbing motivations.
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Third, intelligence does not spring fully formed like Athena from the forehead of Zeus. Even we humans, with the built-in processing power of a supercomputer at our disposal, take years to mature. Again, once mature, a human requires about a decade to become really expert in any given field, including AI programming. More to the point, it takes the scientific community some extended period to develop a theory, then the engineering community some more time to put it into practice. Even if we had a complete and valid theory of mind, which we do not, putting it into software would take years; and the early versions would be incomplete and full of bugs. Human developers will need years of experience with early AIs before they get it right. Even then they will have systems that are the equivalent of slow, inexperienced humans.
Third, intelligence does not spring fully formed like Athena from the forehead of Zeus. Even we humans, with the built-in processing power of a supercomputer at our disposal, take years to mature. Again, once mature, a human requires about a decade to become really expert in any given field, including AI programming. More to the point, it takes the scientific community some extended period to develop a theory, then the engineering community some more time to put it into practice. Even if we had a complete and valid theory of mind, which we do not, putting it into software would take years; and the early versions would be incomplete and full of bugs. Human developers will need years of experience with early AIs before they get it right. Even then they will have systems that are the equivalent of slow, inexperienced humans.
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Most existing AI research is completely pragmatic, without any reference to moral structures in cognitive architectures. That is to be expected: just getting the darn thing to be intelligent is as hard a problem as we can handle now, and there is time enough to worry about the brakes after the engine is working. As I noted before, much of the most advanced research is sponsored by the military or corporations. In the military, the notion of an autonomous machine being able to question its orders on moral grounds is anathema. In corporate industry, the top goal seems likely to be the financial benefit of the company. Thus, the current probable sources of AI will not adhere to a universally adopted philanthropic formulation, such as Asimov's Three Laws. The reasonable assumption then is that a wide variety of AIs with differing goal structures will appear in the coming decades.
Most existing AI research is completely pragmatic, without any reference to moral structures in cognitive architectures. That is to be expected: just getting the darn thing to be intelligent is as hard a problem as we can handle now, and there is time enough to worry about the brakes after the engine is working. As I noted before, much of the most advanced research is sponsored by the military or corporations. In the military, the notion of an autonomous machine being able to question its orders on moral grounds is anathema. In corporate industry, the top goal seems likely to be the financial benefit of the company. Thus, the current probable sources of AI will not adhere to a universally adopted philanthropic formulation, such as Asimov's Three Laws. The reasonable assumption then is that a wide variety of AIs with differing goal structures will appear in the coming decades.
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Over the past decade, the concept of a technological singularity has become better understood. The basic idea is that the process of creating AI and other technological change will be accelerated by AI itself, so that sometime in the coming century the pace of change will become so rapid that we mere mortals won't be able to keep up, much less control it.
Over the past decade, the concept of a technological singularity has become better understood. The basic idea is that the process of creating AI and other technological change will be accelerated by AI itself, so that sometime in the coming century the pace of change will become so rapid that we mere mortals won't be able to keep up, much less control it.
Jun 1, 2007
NOAA Home Page - Earth Observing System (GEOSS)
NOAA Home Page - Earth Observing System (GEOSS): "More than 60 countries, the European Commission and more than 40 international organizations are supporting the development of a global Earth Observation System that, over the next decade, will revolutionize the understanding of Earth and how it works. With benefits as broad as the planet itself, the U.S.-led initiative promises to make people and economies around the globe healthier, safer and better equipped to manage basic daily needs. The aim is to make 21st century technology as interrelated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects, providing the science on which sound policy and decision-making must be built."
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