Large-scale human behavior change

This coming year, we'll be addressing the subject of tools that can be
used for large-scale human behavior change – essentially looking at
the capabilities that are available to help affect a global social
value shift.

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Worldwatch Global Security Brief #1
► Economic growth will slow and inflation will rise if oil prices stay at or above their current level of more than $40 per barrel. The United States will spend roughly $160 billion on oil imports this year, and many oil-dependent developing countries could soon fall into recession if prices stay high.
► Growing dependence on Persian Gulf oil will alter the international balance of power, flooding those countries with extra cash. If the past is guide, these growing revenues may delay economic and political reforms, and further line the pockets of a wealthy elite.
► Dependence on Russia, the one other country where production is growing substantially, will also grow dramatically, shifting the international balance of power. With China rapidly rivaling the United States as the world’s largest oil importer, international pressures will grow.
► Additional airline bankruptcies are likely given the oil intensity of the industry. A major shakeup in the automobile industry is also possible. Companies such as Toyota that have pioneered highly-efficient hybrid-electric cars may benefit, while some of the U.S. companies that have relied heavily on SUVs for their profits may be in trouble.

Robot Project: We Live in the Robot Age : EXPO 2005 AICHI,JAPAN: "Robot Project: We Live in the Robot Age"

BBC - Science & Nature - Genes - Future of Reproduction: Page 2: "In vitro fertilisation is essentially the externalisation of human reproduction and is an extraordinary milestone, but it too is relatively uncontroversial, perhaps because there is no country where it yet accounts for more than 1 in 100 births. Despite two decades of refinement, IVF is still too expensive and downright unpleasant for couples not afflicted by infertility to use.

This situation could soon change, however, which is critical to the future of human reproduction, because IVF will be the foundation for the technologies poised to shape the genetics of future children. It is easy for journalists to conjure up visions of shopping for designer babies, but such possibilities cannot figure prominently in our future until IVF improves significantly or until their potential benefits are so seductive that would-be parents see the limitations of current IVF as a small price to pay. "

Wired News: Ecobot Eats Dead Flies for Fuel: "Researchers at the University of the West of England, Bristol, are working on creating autonomous robots that power themselves using substances found in the environment. Professors Chris Melhuish and John Greenman plan to give robots their very own guts -- artificial digestive systems and the corresponding metabolisms that will allow robots to digest food. "

Headlines for Wednesday, December 15, 2004: "the WFP is counting on China sharing lessons it has learned since the late 1970s, a period when a total of 300 million Chinese have escaped poverty -- an 'unprecedented accomplishment,' according to Morris. 'China has had more experience moving people out of hunger and poverty than any country in the world in the history of mankind,' he said. "

Headlines for Wednesday, December 15, 2004: "China is set to complete the transition from aid recipient to international donor in the next year, the head of the world's biggest humanitarian agency said yesterday as he announced plans to phase out food support for Beijing and introduce a new period of cooperation to help poor countries in Asia and Africa"

The New York Times > International > Middle East > The Elections: Iraqi Campaign Raises Question of Iran's Sway: "Many American and Iraqi officials say the talk of Iranian influence here reflects what they call a more plausible fear: that Shiite dominance in Iraq, coupled with Shiite rule in Iran, would reshape the geopolitical map of the Middle East. The development would be particularly threatening to Sunni-ruled states that border Iraq and run down the Persian Gulf, the officials say, carrying as it would the threat of increasing unrest among long-suppressed Shiite populations. "

The New York Times > International > Middle East > The Elections: Iraqi Campaign Raises Question of Iran's Sway: "Among the Sunni Arab minority in Iraq, the fear of a Shiite-led government influenced by Iran has helped drive a powerful insurgency. If large numbers of Sunnis boycott the elections, and pro-Iranian Shiite religious groups dominate the 275-seat national assembly the voters will select, some Iraqis fear the country could spiral into civil war. They predict conflicts between Sunni and Shiite militias, or between secular and religious Shiite parties. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The purpose of the summit was to spotlight, consolidate and advance the growing economic and political links between China and the E.U. The E.U. has become, since its enlargement, China's biggest trading partner, and China has become the E.U.'s second-largest trading partner -- total trade between them is now $200 billion per year. Beijing and its European supporters believe that the Sino-European relationship has reached a level at which China should become a full partner with no restrictions. The opponents of lifting the embargo cite Beijing's continued human rights violations, but they are also motivated by pressure from Washington, whose interests are primarily geostrategic."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Currently the major presumptive power centers are China in East Asia, India in South Asia, Brazil in South America, the Franco-German combine in Europe and Russia at the center of its multiregional periphery. As an area of contention that is internally divided and subject to strong pressures from outside powers, the Near East has no single presumptive power center, although Iran is bidding for that role. There is no state in Africa that has the resources to be a hegemon, although Nigeria and the Republic of South Africa might take that position or share it in the future. The U.S. has secure dominance in its North American base, but its global reach is in question as it faces challenges and tests from ascending powers elsewhere."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "What Washington has most essentially lost is acquiescence to its leadership. Other powers no longer have any compunction about opposing U.S. policies and preferences when it is not in their own independent interests to follow them. It is a game of every power for itself, in which each regional power center cooperates with others when it shares common interests with them and opposes them when interests conflict. The result is the absence of a single paradigm of world order or even of a coherent pattern of alliances. In their place are coalitions of convenience that -- taken together -- have no consistent direction."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The tendency toward a multipolar configuration of world politics, in which a number of regional power centers compete for hegemony over their spheres of influence within a framework of international agreements and institutions, is a long term process involving incremental gains and losses for the major players."

Headlines for Tuesday, December 14, 2004MT: “Do you think there is a big difference for developing countries between now and thirty years ago?” Bourguignon: “It depends on the country. If you look at growth over the past twenty years, the growth rate has not been extraordinary. Some countries have positive growth rates. You also have to look at the shocks some countries have encountered over that period. It is possible that everything that has been achieved is destroyed by a shock, particularly one linked to primary resources. Has aid been inefficient? It has been in some countries, and it has been efficient in other countries. Recipient countries are not necessarily to blame. Until the 1990s, with the Cold War, a lot of development aid decisions were not efficient because they were based on geopolitical strategies.”

Foreign Policy: Spreading Democracy: "The effort to spread democracy is also dangerous in a more indirect way: It conveys to those who do not enjoy this form of government the illusion that it actually governs those who do. But does it? We now know something about how the actual decisions to go to war in Iraq were taken in at least two states of unquestionable democratic bona fides: the United States and the United Kingdom. Other than creating complex problems of deceit and concealment, electoral democracy and representative assemblies had little to do with that process. Decisions were taken among small groups of people in private, not very different from the way they would have been taken in nondemocratic countries. Fortunately, media independence could not be so easily circumvented in the United Kingdom. But it is not electoral democracy that necessarily ensures effective freedom of the press, citizen rights, and an independent judiciary. "

Foreign Policy: Spreading DemocracyDemocracy is rightly popular. In 1647, the English Levellers broadcast the powerful idea that “all government is in the free consent of the people.” They meant votes for all. Of course, universal suffrage does not guarantee any particular political result, and elections cannot even ensure their own perpetuation—witness the Weimar Republic. Electoral democracy is also unlikely to produce outcomes convenient to hegemonic or imperial powers. (If the Iraq war had depended on the freely expressed consent of “the world community,” it would not have happened.) But these uncertainties do not diminish the appeal of electoral democracy.

Google Is Adding Major Libraries to Its Database: "Google, the operator of the world's most popular Internet search service, plans to announce an agreement today with some of the nation's leading research libraries and Oxford University to begin converting their holdings into digital files that would be freely searchable over the Web.
It may be only a step on a long road toward the long-predicted global virtual library. But the collaboration of Google and research institutions that also include Harvard, the University of Michigan, Stanford and the New York Public Library is a major stride in an ambitious Internet effort by various parties. The goal is to expand the Web beyond its current valuable, if eclectic, body of material and create a digital card catalog and searchable library for the world's books, scholarly papers and special collections. "

A new trade pact between the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China represents a move towards a two billion person pan-Asian market, which according to the Guardian could "rival the EU and the US." In addition to the establishment of a free trade zone by 2010, the pact calls for military and security cooperation, tourism promotion and the creation of early-warning systems for infectious diseases.

"Save the World, Not the Empire" - Empire?: This is neither to suggest that the war in Afghanistan was devised on the same pretexts of the latter war, nor that the ruling class in Washington adheres to the same political, ideological or self-motivated philosophy. The increasingly prevailing narrative now indicates that Iraq was the prize sought by the neo-conservative elements in US administrations as early as a decade prior to September 11, 2001. While the justifications for the war were modified according to the political atmosphere in Washington, Israel’s security was, and remains a focal point. This in part explains why neo-conservatives are often labeled the '‘Likudists'’ on Capital Hill, referring to Israel’s right wing Likud party. The allegation is equally strengthened by the incontrovertible fact that some neo-cons – as they are often called - have served as advisors to past Israeli governments.
But the war party’s interests are, of course, not limited to that of Israel, or even to any other lone factor, be it strategic control over oil reserves, obstructing the growing Chinese economic force from encompassing the Middle East, defending the reputation of a weakening empire, or simply hunting for some Pentagon contracts. Added to that is the religious fanaticism and its rampant fervor that has more institutionalized and far-reaching influence in Washington than anywhere else in the world, with the possible exception of Israel and Iran.

>"Save the World, Not the Empire" (December 1, 2004) This article asserts that US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan represent classical "historical imperatives" that predict the demise of an empire. It suggests that the only way to bring about an end to international chaos and disorder "ensued and nurtured by fundamental and right-wing elements" is continued Iraqi resistance and popular opposition abroad. (YellowTimes.org)

Newsletter Dec. 6-10 Japan Shifts to High Gear in Military Fast Lane (December 9, 2004) Despite public opposition, Japan will extend the deployment of its 600-troop Self Defense Force in Iraq for another year. Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi defended his cabinet's decision, saying it was "appropriate [...] as the next year will be an important one for Iraq." Critics fear that Japan's close cooperation with the US "greatly endangers the security of the Japanese" and simply courts "die-hard conservatives who want to promote an overseas role for Japanese troops as a means of restoring past military glory." (Inter Press Service)

Gmail Militainment Gone Amok (December 3, 2004) What do you get when you combine US military psychological operations and media? Cable television's latest offering, the new Military Channel. According to this article, the channel will combine "accurate information to the media and public" with "misleading information and propaganda to influence the outcome of a campaign or battle." (Mediachannel.org)

Gmail There is nothing wrong with these principles per se, but they bear little relation to reality.
Ethnicity and religion are highly politicized in all African states, and even quite democratic, federal states have problems in dealing with their ethnic and religious diversity once it has become politicized.

Gmail Countries with economic or strategic interests in the big states have, not surprisingly, sought to protect those interests without much attention to the long-term consequences of their policies or the long-term needs of their countries. With the weakening of colonial ties, most recently those of France with its former colonies, and the end of the Cold War, expediency is now directed less at safeguarding interests than at avoiding the pressure to become involved directly in stabilizing troubled countries.

Gmail - Worldwatch: A Message from the President: "Unfortunately, much of the media has turned a blind eye to the most critical problems of our time. On issues ranging from oceans to climate change, short-term private interests are getting priority over the long-term future of people and the planet. "

Global Economic Prospects 2005 - Global Growth: "The world economy accelerated sharply in 2004, expanding by an estimated 4 percent.
The United States and Japan, whose economies grew by more than 4 percent, continued to lead Europe in the recovery.
Even stronger growth was experienced by a number of large developing countries, notably China (8.8 percent), Russia (8.0 percent), and India (6.0 percent). Their performance helped power developing countries as a whole to an anticipated 6.1 percent growth rate in 2004-an expansion without precedent over the past 30 years. "

Headlines for Monday, December 6, 2004: "The Financial Times (12/06) writes Oxfam said in its report the 'war on terror' threatens to revive an era when foreign aid was dictated by security concerns rather than poverty reduction. In 2002, a third of the increase in aid flows from rich to poor countries came from allocations to Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to the report. Flows of US aid to Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and Afghanistan in the past three years are equal to aid to the rest of the world combined. Development campaigners have contrasted the quick progress in reaching agreement among the Paris Club countries to write off up to 80 percent of Iraq's debt with slow progress in forgiving the debt of poor African countries."

Headlines for Monday, December 6, 2004: "The amount of aid rich countries give to poorer nations has fallen by half since the 1960s, risking the lives of millions of children, a leading development charity said in a report released Monday, reports The Associated Press (12/06)."

Population 8.97 billion by 2300 In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.

The Resort to Force, by Noam Chomsky (Excerpted from Hegemony or Survival): "the Clinton doctrine that the US is entitled to resort to 'unilateral use of military power' to ensure 'uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies, and strategic resources.' The world 'is a much more insecure place' now that Russia has decided to follow the US lead"

UN Body Rejects Censure, Threatens Revolt - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "''The action by the General Assembly committee highlights a political-cultural divide in a world split between those who insist on the application of the rule of law, peaceful resolution of international disputes and the universality of human rights, on one hand, and those who practice unilateralism, preventive wars and selective standards of human rights, on the other. ''Claims of divine inspiration, reinforced by expansionist designs and driven by an outdated moral mission, are no longer accepted by a broad segment of a divided world that has grown tired of global autocracy and a reincarnation of old-fashioned imperialism,''"

GPF Newsletter Nov. 29 - Dec. 3 This TomDispatch article highlights recurring similarities in US media language covering rebellions against US interventions since the 1980s. The author points out that the dichotomy between the labels "freedom fighters" and "terrorists" changes once the US becomes a country's prime enemy and target. The government's position in a given conflict, the article claims, has generally directed reportage.

The Coup Connection (November 2004) The International Republican Institute (IRI), a US government-financed organization which calls itself "nonpartisan," aims at "democratization" overseas. This article explains how the IRI organizes political training sessions for opposition movements in countries where the governments' policies do not coincide with Washington's interests, such as in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Cambodia. (Mother Jones)

News Media in the 60th Year of the Nuclear Age - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "When Einstein called for 'the aroused understanding and insistence of the peoples of the world,' he was describing a need that news media ought to help fill. But instead, mostly we get the official stories: dumbed-down, simplistic, and - yes - narrowly nationalistic. The themes are those of Washington's powerful: our nukes good, our allies' nukes pretty good, unauthorized nukes very bad.
That sort of propaganda drumbeat won't be convincing to people who doubt that a Christian Bomb is good and a Jewish Bomb is good but an Islamic Bomb is bad. You don't have to be an Einstein to understand that people are rarely persuaded by hypocritical messages along the lines of 'Do as we say, not as we do.' "

Pentagon Propaganda Shop Lives on, 'LA Times' Reports - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "A key recent development, according to the Times, was the decision by commanders in Iraq in mid-September to combine public affairs, psychological operations, and information operations into a 'strategic communications' office."

Pentagon Propaganda Shop Lives on, 'LA Times' Reports - Empire? The Pentagon in 2002 was forced to shutter its controversial Office of Strategic Influence (OSI) when it became known that the office planned to plant false news stories in the media. But now officials say that much of its mission, including using misinformation in the Iraq war and the war on terrorism, has been taken over by other offices within the government, the Los Angeles Times reported today. “Some of the ongoing efforts include having U.S. military spokesmen play a greater role in psychological operations in Iraq, as well as planting information with sources used by Arabic TV channels such as Al Jazeera to help influence the portrayal of the United States,” the Times revealed.

Gmail - Press Review: "China has taken a first step toward reducing the emission of harmful emissions into the air from burning coal, the World Bank said Thursday, according to a Xinhua report."

BostonHerald.com - Business: Economic `Armageddon' predicted: "America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.'' "..Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants. The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Description of terrorism as “any action, in addition to actions already specified by the existing conventions on aspects of terrorism, the Geneva Conventions and Security Council resolution 1566 (2004), that is intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians or non-combatants, when the purpose of such act, by its nature or context, is to intimidate a population, or to compel a Government or an international organization to do or to abstain from doing any act”.

State use of force The United Nations must achieve the same degree of normative strength concerning non-State use of force as it has concerning State use of force. Lack of agreement on a clear and well-known definition undermines the normative and moral stance against terrorism and has stained the United Nations image.

Current trends indicate persistent and possibly worsening food insecurity in many countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in the developing world and increased per capita consumption in the industrialized
world have led to greater demand for scarce resources. The loss of arable land, water scarcity, overfishing, deforestation and the alteration of ecosystems pose daunting challenges for sustainable development. The world’s population is expected to increase from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050, with nearly all of that growth occurring in the countries least equipped to absorb it. Feeding such a rapidly growing population will only be possible if agricultural yields can be increased significantly and sustainably.

Preventing deadly violenceThe biggest source of inefficiency in our collective security institutions has simply been an unwillingness to get serious about preventing deadly violence.

The security of the most affluent State can be held hostage to the ability of the poorest State to contain an emerging disease. Because international flight times are shorter than the incubation periods for many infectious diseases, any one of 700 million international airline passengers every year can be an unwitting global disease-carrier. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread to more than 8,000 people in 30 countries in three months, killing almost 700.

Global economic integration means that a major terrorist attack anywhere in
the developed world would have devastating consequences for the well-being of millions of people in the developing world. The World Bank estimates that the attacks of 11 September 2001 alone increased the number of people living in poverty by 10 million; the total cost to the world economy probably exceeded 80 billion dollars. These numbers would be far surpassed by an incident involving nuclear terrorism.

The cold war shaped much of global politics for the next 45 years. The rivalry
between the United States and the former Soviet Union blocked the Security Council from playing a dominant role in maintaining international peace and security. Nearly all armed conflicts and struggles for liberation were viewed through the prism of East-West rivalry until the historic collapse of the former Soviet Union and the end of communist rule in Eastern Europe.

Decolonizationwas only one of the forces that shaped the United Nations. The
United Nations founders did not anticipate that the United States and the former Soviet Union would soon embark on a global rivalry, developing and deploying tens of thousands of nuclear weapons capable of destroying the world many times over.

Between 1975 and 1999, sub-Saharan Africa saw no overall increase in its per capita income.

The case for collective securityThe case for collective security today rests on three basic pillars. Today’s threats recognize no national boundaries, are connected, and must be addressed at the global and regional as well as the national levels. No State, no matter how powerful, can by its own efforts alone make itself invulnerable to today’s threats. And it cannot be assumed that every State will always be able, or willing, to meet its responsibility to protect its own peoples and not to harm its neighbours.

The threats are from non-State actors as well as States, and to human security as well as
State security.

A decisive moment in the human story. Historians may well look back on the first years of the twenty-first century as a decisive moment in the human story. The different societies that make up the human family are today interconnected as never before. They face threats that no nation can hope to master by acting alone - and opportunities that can be much more hopefully exploited if all nations work together.

People's Daily Online -- China's development affects Europe: "According to experts' forecast, China will export cars made by China in 10 years. They said they are also astonished at the improvement speed of the car spare parts produced in China. "

Future Survey -- Top Ten Trends, Forecasts, and Proposals: "'The dangers of global fascism cannot be discounted as imaginary or alarmist.'"

Future Survey -- Top Ten Trends, Forecasts, and Proposals: "'The recent appearance and spread of 'bird flu' across Asian poultry populations has raised concerns that a devastating new influenza pandemic is imminent�should the bird flu virus evolve to a form that readily infects humans, widespread loss of life is predicted.'"

Future Survey -- Top Ten Trends, Forecasts, and Proposals: "SURPLUS MALES IN CHINA AND INDIA. 'The masculinization of Asia's sex ratios is one of the overlooked megatrends of our time, a phenomenon that may very likely influence the course of national and perhaps even international politics in the 21st century.'"

The New York Times > International > U.N. Report Urges Big Changes; Security Council Would Expand: "The report addressed six specific and interconnected threats to international peace - 'interstate conflict, civil war, economic and social threats, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and organized international crime.'"

The New York Times > International > U.N. Report Urges Big Changes; Security Council Would Expand: "The United Nations on Tuesday proposed the most sweeping changes in its history, recommending the overhaul of its top decision-making group, the Security Council, and holding out the possibility that it could grant legitimacy to pre-emptive military strikes."

The New York Times > International > U.N. Report Urges Big Changes; Security Council Would Expand: "The United Nations on Tuesday proposed the most sweeping changes in its history, recommending the overhaul of its top decision-making group, the Security Council, and holding out the possibility that it could grant legitimacy to pre-emptive military strikes."

Asia Times Online - The trusted source for news on Central Asia: "The US has now adapted and perfected the latest communication techniques to apply to post-Soviet states to bring about desirable changes. 'Instruments of democracy' are used to topple unpopular dictators or unfriendly regimes, once a successor candidate friendly to the West has been groomed. The Central Intelligence Agency-sponsored Third World uprisings of the Cold War days to remove prime minister Mohammed Mossadaq of Iran, who had nationalized its oil resources, and of Salvador Allende of Chile, which brought US favorite General Augusto Pinochet to power, a man whose crimes are still being catalogued and looked into, are now passe.

That is the promotion of democracy, US style. Who is next in line?"

Asia Times - Asia's most trusted news source for the Middle East: "The mission of PSYOP [psychological operation] is to influence the behavior of foreign target audiences to support US national objectives. PSYOP accomplishes this by conveying selected information and advising on actions that influence the emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign audiences. Behavioral change is at the root of the PSYOP mission. "

Asia Times - Asia's most trusted news source for the Middle East: "The Fallujah offensive has virtually disappeared from the news cycle. But history - if written by Iraqis - may well enshrine it as the new Guernica. Paraphrasing Jean-Paul Sartre memorably writing about the Algerian War (1956-62), after Fallujah no two Americans shall meet without a corpse lying between them: the up to 500,000 victims of the sanctions in the 1990s, according to United Nations experts; the up to 100,000 victims since the beginning of the invasion of Iraq, according to the British medical paper The Lancet; and at least 6,000 victims, and counting, in Fallujah, according to the Iraqi Red Crescent. "

Asia Times - Asia's most trusted news source for the Middle East: "'It's difficult to believe that in this day and age, when people are blogging, emailing and communicating at the speed of light, a whole city is being destroyed and genocide is being committed - and the whole world is aware and silent. Darfur, Americans? Take a look at what you've done in Fallujah.'"