Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Thanks also, I should note, to the success of the system’s
modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of
entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption,
drugs, liquor, and religion that has so far successful deadened most of
the general public into apathetic stupor."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Third, military overstretch. Empires are by definition
colonizers, and trying to keep control over hostage peoples by force
inevitably leads to large and often uncontrollable armies, massive
drains on the economy, and ultimately rebellion on the
periphery. As the Roman empire collapsed when the
“barbarians” at its frontiers revolted and the Roman legions, stretched
from Germany to Africa to Persia and grown unruly and corrupt, were
defeated, as the Persian empire fell in the 5th century BC because it
was unable to maintain the colonies it had established from India to
Africa and the peripheries rose in revolt, so the American empire is
overextended, weakened at the peripheries, forced to use ill-equipped
and undertrained troops to maintain it, and even the generals admit
that it can’t be sustained. We have 547,000 – more than half a million – active troops,
based at (this is amazing and little understood) more than 725 admitted
military bases in at least 40 countries around the world, plus a formal
“military presence” in no less than 153 countries, on every continent
but Antarctica, and nearly a dozen fully armed carrier and missile
fleets on all the seven seas."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "I have studied empires pretty carefully
over the last few years, and I have figured out the basic nature of
these systems and concluded that all empires collapse, and usually
within less than a century, because of their inherent nature.
They not only make mistakes but usually the same set of mistakes,
simply because of the inevitable character of the imperial structure,
which ultimately fails because of its size, complexity, territorial
reach, social stratification, economic disparities, heterogeneity,
domination of people and nature, hierarchy, and environmental ignorance."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Let’s say for starters, you know your empire is collapsing when the
empire that is your fiercest rival buys up a total of 26 percent of
three of your major Wall Street firms for $9 billion, and declares that
it has another $200 billion that it is looking to invest.[Since we’re going to be doing some numbers here, I should pause
to give a little reference for the concept “billion.” A billion seconds
ago was . . . 1959, which means some of you here haven’t yet lived a
billion seconds. A billion minutes ago Jesus was walking along
the Sea of Galilee – more than 2 millennia ago. A billion hours
ago, about 100,000 years before the present, the classic Neanderthal
peoples were wandering Europe and the Middle East, and Homo sapiens
started to move out of Africa. We throw the term around a lot,
but a billion is a big, big number.]Next, you might figure your empire is collapsing when its total debt
obligations amount to $50.5 trillion. That is so big that it’s about
the same as the total household income of everyone in the"

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise: "TR10: Modeling Surprise
Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "China has other challenges as well. Aside from its risky social experiment, it has an economy in which less than a quarter of its people truly participate, and its one-child policy is exacerbating the problems of an already aging population. India, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with its overwhelming number of have-nots and its aforementioned corruption. True, India is a democracy, but a democracy muddled by a profusion of divergent political parties."

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "But “right now” doesn’t mean forever. All you need is a ruler to draw the straight-line extrapolation showing that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. For China, that would occur as early as 2045; for India, the date would be some 20 years later. Which is why you so often hear experts predicting that, by midcentury, the U.S. will be trailing the two new world superpowers.

We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions."

Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study

Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study: "Three Chinese institutions were among the world's top four banks at the end of 2007 at a time when the market capitalisation of Western banks was suffering from a global financial crisis, a study showed Wednesday.
The number one spot in the rankings, compiled by the Boston Consulting Group, was occupied by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with market capitalisation of nearly 340 billion dollars (218 billion euros).
In second place was China Construction Bank, followed by HSBC of Britain, Bank of China, Bank of America and Citigroup of the United States."

Bloomberg.com: News

Bloomberg.com: News: "April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's discoveries of what may be two of the world's three biggest oil finds in the past 30 years could help end the Western Hemisphere's reliance on Middle East crude, Strategic Forecasting Inc. said.
Saudi Arabia's influence as the biggest oil exporter would wane if the fields are as big as advertised, and China and India would become dominant buyers of Persian Gulf oil, said Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at Strategic Forecasting in Austin, Texas. Zeihan's firm, which consults for companies and governments around the world, was described in a 2001 Barron's article as ``the shadow CIA.''
Brazil may be pumping ``several million'' barrels of crude daily by 2020, vaulting the nation into the ranks of the world's seven biggest producers, Zeihan said in a telephone interview. The U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters would be reduced, leaving the region exposed to more conflict, he said.
``We could see that world becoming a very violent one,'' said Zeihan, former chief of Middle East and East Asia analysis for Strategic Forecasting. ``If the United States isn't getting any crude from the Gulf, what benefit does it have in policing the Gulf anymore? All of the geopolitical flux that wracks that region regularly suddenly isn't our problem.''"

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "The migrations of humans out of Africa to populate the rest of the world appear to have begun about 60,000 years ago, but little has been known about humans between Eve and that dispersal.
The new study looks at the mitochondrial DNA of the Khoi and San people in South Africa, who appear to have diverged from other people between 90,000 and 150,000 years ago.
The researchers led by Doron Behar of Rambam Medical Center in Haifa, Israel, and Saharon Rosset of IBM T.J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York, and Tel Aviv University concluded that humans separated into small populations before the Stone Age, when they came back together and began to increase in numbers and spread to other areas."

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Studies using mitochondrial DNA, which is passed down through mothers, have traced modern humans to a single 'mitochondrial Eve,' who lived in Africa about 200,000 years ago."

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Human beings may have had a brush with extinction 70,000 years ago, an extensive genetic study suggests.

Geneticist Spencer Wells, here meeting an African village elder, says the study tells 'truly an epic drama.'
The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought, according to an analysis released Thursday.
The report notes that a separate study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that the number of early humans may have shrunk as low as 2,000 before numbers began to expand again in the early Stone Age."

Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain | Worldwatch Institute

Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain Worldwatch Institute: "Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one cer­tainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.) Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one cer­tainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.)"

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025."

ID21 - communicating development research

ID21 - communicating development research: "A publication from the Oxford Research Group, in the UK, challenges the idea that the ‘war on terror’ must be prioritised over all other global challenges. Current responses to terrorism may actually provoke rather than contain it. The authors identify four challenges more deserving of international attention: climate change; competition over resources; socio-economic marginalisation of the majority world; and global militarisation."

TheMercury.com - News Article

TheMercury.com - News Article: "As important as military strength is to China today, economic development and political stability are just as central to its leaders' thinking—as Ambassador Zhou himself made clear when he was here just 11 weeks ago. From the U.S. perspective, China's growing engagement with the rest of the world is driven primarily by two things: a need for access to markets, resources, technology, and expertise, and a desire to assert its influence in the region and with developing countries in other parts of the world.
I should note that even as it aspires to a larger global role, China faces significant domestic challenges and structural weaknesses: things like uneven income distribution, growing dependence on foreign oil and other imported resources, environmental degradation, an aging population, and massive migration from rural areas to cities. All of these factors will influence China's trajectory, and we can't ignore them. But to me, the key question for the future is whether China is ready to accept the responsibility that comes along with 'great power status.'"

TheMercury.com - News Article

TheMercury.com - News Article: "I say that with full appreciation for the remarkable speed and scope of China's recent military buildup. The Chinese have fully absorbed the lessons of both Gulf wars, developing and integrating advanced weaponry into a modern military force. While it's true that these new capabilities could pose a risk to U.S. forces and interests in the region, the military modernization is as much about projecting strength as anything else. After two centuries of perceived Western hegemony, China is determined to flex its muscle. It sees an advanced military force as an essential element of great power status. And it is the Intelligence Community's view that any Chinese regime, even a democratic one, would have similar nationalist goals."