Over the next 50 years Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could become a much larger force in the world economy. We map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050.

The Costs of Empire Part 2: Counting the Dollars and Cents - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "For fiscal year (FY) 2004, Congress approved about US$400 billion for 'national defense', or in plain English, military spending. But hold on to your hats because, as they say on Broadway, you ain't seen nothing yet. In FY 2004, military spending accounted for over half of all US federal discretionary spending. The annual military appropriations bill is expected to grow from $369 billion this year to nearly $600 billion by 2013, according to the US Congressional Budget "

The Costs of Empire Part 1: Starting With a Solid Base - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: " 'The United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of Great Powers, of what might be called 'imperial overstretch': that is to say, decision-makers in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the total of the United States's global interests and obligations is nowadays far too large for the country to be able to defend them all simultaneously.' "

America: The Accidental Empire? - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "We also tried to take soundings of American public opinion, which revealed little appetite for long-term foreign entanglements along with a sense of unease that America's role in the world was, as many people put it, so misunderstood by their friends and allies abroad. This confirmed the view of Joseph Nye, Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, that there is no appetite among the American public for 'empire'. He calls it 'imperial under-stretch'. 'Domestic opinion in the US will not produce the resources or the public support for an imperial mission over the long run,' Mr Nye says. "

Information Dominance: The Philosophy of Total Propaganda Control? - Empire? - Global Policy Forum Information dominance is a concept of elegant simplicity and at the same time complex interconnectedness. It plays a key role in US military strategy and foreign policy. The now quite well known statement of this is contained in the Pentagon’s Joint Vision 2020, where the key term is ‘full spectrum dominance’ which ‘implies that US forces are able to conduct prompt, sustained and synchronized operations with combinations of forces tailored to specific situations and with access to and freedom to operate in all domains – space, sea, land, air and information’. [1] ...This could hardly be any clearer about the agenda of the US military. There are two new elements to information dominance compared to traditional conceptions of propaganda. The first is the integration of propaganda and psychological operations into a much wider conception of information war. The second is the integration of information war into the core of military strategy... Achieving ID involves two components: 1) building up and protecting friendly information; and 2) degrading information received by your adversary.’ Both of these refer not simply to military information systems but also to propaganda and the news media.

Power, Propaganda and Conscience in the War on Terror - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "The late Alex Carey, the great Australian social scientist who pioneered the study of corporatism and propaganda, wrote that the three most significant political developments of the twentieth century were, 'the growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy'."

Power, Propaganda and Conscience in the War on Terror - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "'Liberal realism' - in America, Britain, Australia - meant taking the humanity out of the study of nations and viewing the world in terms of its usefulness to western power. "

African Summit to Adopt Security, Defense Policy - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Thirty-nine heads of state or government plan to attend the extraordinary summit in Sirte on February 27 and 28 following a meeting of African defense ministers on February 22 and 23. 'The defense ministers are expected to finalize a document on the creation of African Common Defense and Security policy which the leaders are expected to adopt,' one official said.
Security is possibly the greatest obstacle to Africa's development, with wars such as those in Burundi, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo scaring off investors, uprooting millions and blighting the economies of entire regions. Progress in stabilizing the world's poorest continent is key to the AU's ambitious economic recovery plan, the New Partnership for Africa's Development, which aims to lure Western investment in return for improvements in governance. "

The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies - Commentary - Missing In ActionHowever, by May of 2004, Europe will expand to 450 million people with the addition of ten new member-states. The EU’s aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand from $7-trillion to $9.6-trillion, and it will be purchasing over half of OPEC’s crude oil. This will undoubtedly contribute to OPEC moving towards the euro. Of course, all bets are off if the US decides to use it military presence in Iraq to institute regime change in Iran, Saudi Arabia or any other country contemplating a switch to the euro. It is noteworthy that the US has not articulated a complete exit strategy from Iraq, and that it has pressed for a transitional assembly to take the reigns of government from the current Iraqi Governing Council. Washington would dearly like the new assembly to be US-friendly. In any case, US control over the Iraqi oil patch will have a mitigating effect on any immediate plans by OPEC to switch to the euro.

The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies - Commentary - Missing In Action: "the US has built up a number of structural imbalances over the past 30 years. Primary among them are the massive trade deficit, the national debt and the budget deficit facing the US economy. Given these deficits, Clark outlines what would occur if OPEC were to make a sudden shift to the euro: "

The Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies - Commentary - Missing In Action An alternative explanation for Washington’s determination to be rid of the Baathist regime may be found in its interest in maintaining dollar hegemony through the continued recycling of petrodollars. According to this theory, the Bush administration aims to maintain dollar hegemony by arresting momentum towards the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) switching to the euro as an oil transaction currency. Such a change in the oil transaction ‘currency of choice’ would have a devastating effect on the US economy.

US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Optimists claim that the world oil market will be able to accommodate China and that, instead of conflict, China's thirst could create mutual desire for stability in the Middle East and thus actually bring Beijing closer to the U.S. History shows the opposite: Superpowers find it difficult to coexist while competing over scarce resources. The main bone of contention probably will revolve around China's relations with Saudi Arabia, home to a quarter of the world's oil. "

US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Dependence on oil means dependence on the Middle East, home to 70% of the world's proven reserves. With 60% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, China can no longer afford to sit on the sidelines of the tumultuous region. Its way of forming a footprint in the Middle East has been through providing technology and components for weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems to unsavory regimes in places such as Iran, Iraq and Syria. A report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a group created by Congress to monitor U.S.-China relations, warned in 2002 that 'this arms trafficking to these regimes presents an increasing threat to U.S. security interests in the Middle East.' The report concludes: 'A key driver in China's relations with terrorist-sponsoring governments is its dependence on foreign oil to fuel its economic development. This dependency is expected to increase over the coming decade.' "

US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "With 1.3 billion people and an economy growing at a phenomenal 8% to 10% a year, China, already a net oil importer, is growing increasingly dependent on imported oil. Last year, its auto sales grew 70% and its oil imports were up 30% from the previous year, making it the world's No. 2 petroleum user after the U.S. By 2030, China is expected to have more cars than the U.S. and import as much oil as the U.S. does today. "

US, China Are on Collision Course Over Oil - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council With China's increasing dependence on oil supplies in the Middle East, the US has perceived China as a major competitor for both energy and influence in the region. Washington is pushing to persuade Beijing to shift from oil into other sources of energy so as to reduce future conflicts over resources, and to ensure continued US hegemony in the region.

One More Seat at the Table - UN Security Council - Global Policy Forum: "A special United Nations panel meets this weekend to consider how to make the organization, particularly the Security Council, more effective in a more dangerous world. No nation has more of an interest in its success than the United States. Far from undermining American power, a stronger United Nations can extend American influence while also making unilateral action by the United States unnecessary in the future. "

Democracy Much of our thinking about democracy assumes the existence of a state: by “state” I mean a politically organized society, with a central authority, operating over a territory, that monopolizes the legitimate use of force and has a wide range of policy competences (employment, environment, health, product safety, domestic security, research/development, etc.). Our standard conceptions of democracy—current paradigms of democraticness—are linked to this institutional setting...the authorization to exercise power results from the collective decisions of the equal persons who are governed by that power... It took considerable invention, both intellectually and practically, to see how the abstract idea of democracy could be brought to bear on a modern, centralized, large, sovereign state.....Democracy names a class of arrangements through which the interests, beliefs, principles, and ideals of persons who are subject to collective decisions are brought to bear on making those decisions: ways that the authorization to exercise power results from the collective decisions of the members of a society who are governed by that power.

PINR - Support for War in Iraq Based on Fallacious Reasoning: "The Bush administration has consistently framed their foreign policy objectives in ways in which they will receive support from the American people, through the use of 'moral logic' and a virtual demagoguery of sorts expressed in its preoccupation with security. Only a small percentage of Americans would still find palatable the U.S.' foreign policy objectives if expressed in the terms power politics, economic interests, and realpolitik. "

Globalization of Law and Practices - Globalization - Global Policy Forum: "The term 'globalization of law' refers to the degree to which the whole world lives under a single set of legal rules. Such a single set of rules might be imposed by an international body, adopted by global consensus, or arrived at by parallel development in all parts of the globe. In today's world of increasing international trade and inter-dependence the need for transnational law has increased many folds. Since more and more countries, open their economy, either partially or completely, there is a growing need to recognize and work towards a uniform system of law. This process of globalization is evident in all facets of law. "

The Economics of Empire - Empire? - Global Policy Forum In the post-World War II period, during its struggle with communism, Washington did come up with a political formula to legitimize its global reach. The two elements of this formula were multilateralism as a system of global governance and liberal democracy. Today, however, Washington or Westminster-type liberal democracy is in trouble throughout the developing world, where it has been reduced to a façade for oligarchic rule. With no moral vision to bind the global majority to the imperial center, this mode of imperial management can only inspire one thing: resistance.... The great problem for unilateralism is overextension, or a mismatch between the goals of the United States and the resources needed to accomplish these goals. Overextension is relative, that is, it is to a great degree a function of resistance. Among the key indicators of overextension are the following:
- the inflaming of Arab and Muslim sentiment in the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, resulting in massive ideological gains for Islamic fundamentalists;
- the collapse of the Cold War Atlantic Alliance and the emergence of a new countervailing alliance, with Germany and France at the center of it;
- the forging of a powerful global civil society movement against US hegemony;
- the coming to power of anti-neoliberal, anti-U.S. movements in South America;
- an increasingly negative impact of militarism on the U.S. economy, as military spending becomes dependent on deficit spending, and deficit spending become more and more dependent on financing from foreign sources.

The Economics of Empire - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "Shortly after the Asian financial crisis, key intellectual defenders of the neoclassical free market model began leaving the fold-among them Jeffrey Sachs, noted earlier for his advocacy of 'free market' shock treatment in Eastern Europe in the early 1990's; Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist of the World Bank; Columbia Professor Jagdish Bhagwati, who called for global controls on capital flows; and financier George Soros, who condemned the lack of controls in the global financial system that had enriched him. "

the reality that is largely ignored is that U.S. policies and actions are significant factors in triggering terrorist attacks; those factors go beyond any hatred of America, its culture, and its values.61 That anti-American animosity is fueled more by “what we do” than by “who we are” is reinforced by various polls taken around the world. A changed national security strategy would come directly to grips with the fact that, since terrorist attacks are virtually impossible to deter, prevent, or mitigate, U.S. security would be better served by not engaging in unnecessary military deployments and interventions that fuel the flames of vehement anti-American sentiment.

The real rationale for missile defense is to protect U.S. forces so they can engage in military intervention throughout the world. Such thinking is not set forth in the new national security strategy, but it is explicit in a document many consider a “blueprint” and inspiration for the new strategy, Rebuilding America’s Defenses by the Project of the New American Century published in September 2000.

According to the Pentagon, the extant and emerging threat to the United States, friends, and allies includes: 12 nations with nuclear weapons programs, 28 nations with ballistic missiles, 13 nations with biological weapons, and 16 nations with chemical weapons.

Expanding Military Intervention - Empire? - Global Policy Forum Missile Defense: Defending America or Building Empire? (May 28, 2003) This article argues the “real rationale” behind US missile defense plans is to protect US forces engaged in military intervention abroad to “enforce a Pax Americana – a strategy of empire by another name.” It warns missile defenses will only increase resentment and animosity towards “what is perceived by the rest of the world as an imperialist America.” (Cato Institute)

Lifting the Natural Resource Curse - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council Insufficient supervision and regulation of the world's natural resources creates an impediment to development. This article suggests a range of measures, such as the Publish What You Pay Campaign, which calls on natural resources companies to disclose information about their transactions, making sure that revenues don't fuel conflicts. (Foreign Service Journal)

In Quest for Energy Security, US Makes New Bet: on Democracy - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "The episode, with its echoes of today's bitter quarrels over Iraq and relations with the Saudi kingdom, highlights America's struggle with a quandary that has tormented it for decades: how to deal with countries that America doesn't trust, that don't trust America but that can dictate the fate of America's economy through their control of oil. For more than half a century, the U.S. has veered between confrontation and cajolery as it strove to secure a pillar of its global power: a steady flow of fuel at a stable price from the Persian Gulf. The U.S. has jumped from country to country in search of reliable friends. "

In Quest for Energy Security, US Makes New Bet: on Democracy - Global Policy Forum - UN Security CouncilIn Quest for Energy Security, US Makes New Bet: on Democracy - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council In Quest for Energy Security, US Makes New Bet: on Democracy (February 4, 2004) With US companies trying to secure long-term energy supplies, Washington has changed its Middle East strategy from maintaining political stability in the region to changing the political system in individual countries. The US uses the war on terror as an excuse to put “reliable” regime into place, as the case of Iraq has illustrated. (Wall Street Journal)

State of the World Trends and Facts: The State of Consumption Today: The United States, with less than 5 % of the global population, uses about a quarter of the world’s fossil fuel resources—burning up nearly 25 % of the coal, 26 % of the oil, and 27 % of the world’s natural gas.... An estimated 65 % of U.S. adults are overweight or obese, leading to an annual loss of 300,000 lives and at least $117 billion in health care costs in 1999... “If the levels of consumption that...the most affluent people enjoy today were replicated across even half of the roughly 9 billion people projected to be on the planet in 2050, the impact on our water supply, air quality, forests, climate, biological diversity, and human health would be severe.”

State of the World Trends and Facts: The State of Consumption Today: "A growing share of the global consumer class now lives in developing countries. China and India alone claim more than 20 percent of the global total -with a combined consumer class of 362 million, more than in all of Western Europe. (Though the average Chinese or Indian member consumes substantially less than the average European.) Developing countries also have the greatest potential to expand the ranks of consumers. China and India's large consumer set constitutes only 16 percent of the region�s population, whereas in Europe the figure is 89 percent."... Every day in 2003, some 11,000 more cars merged onto Chinese roads—4 million new private cars during the year. Auto sales increased by 60 % in 2002 and by more than 80 % in the first half of 2003. If growth continues apace, 150 million cars could jam China’s streets by 2015—18 million more than were driven on U.S. streets and highways in 1999.

State of the World Trends and Facts: The State of Consumption Today: "At least part of the rise in global consumption is the result of population growth. The U.N. projects that world population will increase 41 percent by 2050, to 8.9 billion people, with nearly all of this growth in developing countries.This surge in human numbers threatens to offset any savings in resource use from improved efficiency, as well as any gains in reducing per-capita consumption. "

State of the World Trends and Facts: The State of Consumption Today In 2002, 1.12 billion households—about three quarters of humanity—owned at least one television set. There were 1.1 billion fixed phone lines in 2002, and another 1.1 billion mobile lines. The Internet now connects about 600 million users.

State of the World Trends and Facts: The State of Consumption Today By one calculation, there are now more than 1.7 billion members of “the consumer class”—nearly half of them in the developing world. A lifestyle and culture that became common in Europe, North America, Japan, and a few other pockets of the world in the twentieth century is going global in the twenty-first.

The true costs of our dependence Oil has many benefits and energy is necessary for all our activities. But each stage in its life cycle carries hazards for humans, wildlife and the environmental systems on which we and other species depend. Dependence on oil has also skewed incomes within nations and altered power relations among them. Efficiency gains, and more diffuse and distributed generation, could transform the current system into one that is healthier, less costly and more resilient. The transition to clean and efficient energy technologies will depend on nationally and internationally coordinated policies and incentives. Understanding the health and environmental consequences of oil use may help decision makers assess the true costs of our dependence on this non-renewable resource.

World’s climate system The aggregate of gas and particulate emissions from burning oil have begun to alter the world’s climate system; with implications for human health, agricultural productivity, vulnerable ecosystems and societal infrastructure.

Extreme weather There is increasing volatility and rising risks from extreme weather. Yearly losses from natural disasters (primarily from extreme weather events) increased from $4 billion annually in the 1980s to $40 billion in the 1990s; reached $55 billion in 2002 and $60 billion in 2003. The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that annual losses from extreme weather events could reach $150 billion by the end of this decade if current trends continue. Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest re-insurance company, recently announced that it plans to become a greenhouse neutral company and has opened a Washington, DC office to advance policies to mitigate climate change.

Extreme weatherThere is increasing volatility and rising risks from extreme weather. Yearly losses from natural disasters (primarily from extreme weather events) increased from $4 billion annually in the 1980s to $40 billion in the 1990s; reached $55 billion in 2002 and $60 billion in 2003. The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that annual losses from extreme weather events could reach $150 billion by the end of this decade if current trends continue. Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest re-insurance company, recently announced that it plans to become a greenhouse neutral company and has opened a Washington, DC office to advance policies to mitigate climate change.

Dangerously unequal place The world has become a dangerously unequal place—and this is true even for the rich in Western metropolises. Through debt repayment alone, $US200 billion is transferred annually from South to North.

State and society The principle of reciprocal determination between state and society: the territorial nation-state is both creator and guarantor of individual citizenship rights, and citizens organise themselves to influence and legitimise state actions.

TNC The map clearly shows that the 100 largest TNCs are mostly located in Europe and the US, and that, of those 100 TNCs, the most globalised in terms of foreign assets are located in the UK, France, Germany, the US, and Japan.

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The most significant transformation of Christianity in the world today is not the liberal Reformation that is so much desired in the North. It is the Counter-Reformation coming from the global South. And it's very likely that in a decade or two neither component of global Christianity will recognize its counterpart as fully or authentically Christian. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Present-day battles in Africa and Asia may anticipate the political outlines to come, and the roots of future great-power alliances. These battles are analogous to the ideological conflicts of the twentieth century, the alternating hot and cold wars between advocates of fascism and of democracy, of socialism and of capitalism. This time, however, the competing ideologies are explicitly religious, promising their followers a literal rather than merely a metaphorical kingdom of God on earth. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Across the regions of the world that will be the most populous in the twenty-first century, vast religious contests are already in progress, though so far they have impinged little on Western opinion. The most significant conflict is in Nigeria, a nation that by rights should be a major regional power in this century and perhaps even a global power; but recent violence between Muslims and Christians raises the danger that Nigerian society might be brought to ruin by the clash of jihad and crusade. Muslims and Christians are at each other's throats in Indonesia, the Philippines, Sudan, and a growing number of other African nations; Hindu extremists persecute Christians in India. Demographic projections suggest that these feuds will simply worsen. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "'Governments will have less and less control over flows of information, technology, diseases, migrants, arms, and financial transactions, whether licit or illicit, across their borders. The very concept of 'belonging' to a particular state will probably erode.' "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Northern communities will move to ever more decentralized and privatized forms of faith as Southerners maintain older ideals of community and traditional authority. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The cultural gap between Christians of the North and the South will increase rather than diminish in the coming decades"

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Disease, exploitation, pollution, drink, drugs, and violence, taken together, can account for why people might easily accept that they are under siege from demonic forces, and that only divine intervention can save them. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The population shift is even more marked in the specifically Catholic world, where Euro-Americans are already in the minority. Africa had about 16 million Catholics in the early 1950s; it has 120 million today, and is expected to have 228 million by 2025. The World Christian Encyclopedia suggests that by 2025 almost three quarters of all Catholics will be found in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Within the next twenty-five years the population of the world's Christians is expected to grow to 2.6 billion (making Christianity by far the world's largest faith). By 2025, 50 percent of the Christian population will be in Africa and Latin America, and another 17 percent will be in Asia. Those proportions will grow steadily. By about 2050 the United States will still have the largest single contingent of Christians, but all the other leading nations will be Southern: Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and the Philippines. By then the proportion of non-Latino whites among the world's Christians will have fallen to perhaps one in five. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The growth in Africa has been relentless. In 1900 Africa had just 10 million Christians out of a continental population of 107 million?about nine percent. Today the Christian total stands at 360 million out of 784 million, or 46 percent. And that percentage is likely to continue rising, because Christian African countries have some of the world's most dramatic rates of population growth. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "During the past half century the critical centers of the Christian world have moved decisively to Africa, to Latin America, and to Asia. The balance will never shift back."

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The revolution taking place in Africa, Asia, and Latin America is far more sweeping in its implications than any current shifts in North American religion, whether Catholic or Protestant. There is increasing tension between what one might call a liberal Northern Reformation and the surging Southern religious revolution, which one might equate with the Counter-Reformation, the internal Catholic reforms that took place at the same time as the Reformation?although in references to the past and the present the term 'Counter-Reformation' misleadingly implies a simple reaction instead of a social and spiritual explosion. No matter what the terminology, however, an enormous rift seems inevitable. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "In the global South (the areas that we often think of primarily as the Third World) huge and growing Christian populations?currently 480 million in Latin America, 360 million in Africa, and 313 million in Asia, compared with 260 million in North America?now make up ....the Third Church, a form of Christianity as distinct as Protestantism or Orthodoxy, and one that is likely to become dominant in the faith. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "In the view of liberal Catholics, much of the current crisis derives directly from archaic if not primitive doctrines, including mandatory celibacy among the clergy, intolerance of homosexuality, and the prohibition of women from the priesthood, not to mention a more generalized fear of sexuality. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "The twenty-first century will almost certainly be regarded by future historians as a century in which religion replaced ideology as the prime animating and destructive force in human affairs, guiding attitudes to political liberty and obligation, concepts of nationhood, and, of course, conflicts and wars. "

The Atlantic | October 2002 | The Next Christianity | Jenkins: "Liberal Catholics invoke the word these days to emphasize the urgency of reform?changes both broad and specific that they demand from the Church. Their view is that the crisis, which exposes fault lines of both sexuality and power, is the most serious the Church has faced in 500 years?as serious as the one it faced in Luther's time. "

Fortune.com: "In sum, the risk of abrupt climate change remains uncertain, and it is quite possibly small. But given its dire consequences, it should be elevated beyond a scientific debate. Action now matters, because we may be able to reduce its likelihood of happening, and we can certainly be better prepared if it does. It is time to recognize it as a national security concern. "

Fortune.com: "As the planet's carrying capacity shrinks, an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies. As Harvard archeologist Steven LeBlanc has noted, wars over resources were the norm until about three centuries ago. When such conflicts broke out, 25% of a population's adult males usually died. As abrupt climate change hits home, warfare may again come to define human life. "

Fortune.com Global warming, rather than causing gradual, centuries-spanning change, may be pushing the climate to a tipping point. Growing evidence suggests the ocean-atmosphere system that controls the world's climate can lurch from one state to another in less than a decade—like a canoe that's gradually tilted until suddenly it flips over. Scientists don't know how close the system is to a critical threshold. But abrupt climate change may well occur in the not-too-distant future. If it does, the need to rapidly adapt may overwhelm many societies—thereby upsetting the geopolitical balance of power.

Fortune.com: "Global warming may be bad news for future generations, but let's face it, most of us spend as little time worrying about it as we did about al Qaeda before 9/11. Like the terrorists, though, the seemingly remote climate risk may hit home sooner and harder than we ever imagined. In fact, the prospect has become so real that the Pentagon's strategic planners are grappling with it. "