Learning from Failed Political Leadership — HBS Working Knowledge

Learning from Failed Political Leadership — HBS Working Knowledge: "Russia is now rearming and will be a major threat in the next decade; China is growing rapidly and modernizing its military as fast as it can, and will be a major threat beginning in about another ten years. Even Europe, which is now trying to move unification forward by anti-Americanism (which we cannot stop, no matter how much we might toe a European line), will become an increasingly aggressive rival as the century lengthens. These threats will take on many forms including terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the breakout of wars with the potential to become nuclear exchanges. America must devise a more realistic and effective foreign policy to avoid becoming ensnared in future global conflicts.Russia is now rearming and will be a major threat in the next decade; China is growing rapidly and modernizing its military as fast as it can, and will be a major threat beginning in about another ten years. Even Europe, which is now trying to move unification forward by anti-Americanism (which we cannot stop, no matter how much we might toe a European line), will become an increasingly aggressive rival as the century lengthens. These threats will take on many forms including terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the breakout of wars with the potential to become nuclear exchanges. America must devise a more realistic and effective foreign policy to avoid becoming ensnared in future global conflicts."

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "The analysis in this essay reveals that there are five main factors that influence a state's strategic behavior: the type of anarchy present in a system, its polarity, the power balance, the geo-political situation and the perception of state leaders. Taking these variables into account, the conclusions drawn differ greatly from Waltz's balance of power theory. They are that a state seems more interested in non-balancing strategic behavior, thereby further destabilizing the balance of power in the system. "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "In amalgamating the viewpoints of the various scholars earlier discussed, this essay argues that when facing a hegemonic threat,16 states in the system have three strategic options from which to choose: balancing, bandwagoning, and withdrawing. In selecting the balancing strategy, a state, either on its own or with others, opposes the hegemonic threat through warfare, political coalitions, and military alliances. In selecting the bandwagoning strategy, a state forms political and military alliances with the hegemon or potential hegemon, thus joining its camp. In selecting the withdrawing strategy, a state joins neither side, and attempts to stay out of the conflict. There are various ways of pursuing a withdrawing strategy. They include: a state's ‘distancing’ itself from the hegemon and its allies, thereby ‘hiding from the threat’; or adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude in order to join in the conflict at the most opportune moment; or assuming the ‘isolationist’ stance of keeping a safe distance and completely ignoring the struggle. In other words, withdrawing encompasses the strategic options external to balancing and bandwagoning that have been raised by various scholars.17 Taking into account the high costs associated with balancing and the advantages of bandwagoning or withdrawing in order to eliminate short-term threats, from a systemic perspective, the latter two strategies are much more common than that of balancing. "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "The main reason for states not pursuing a balancing strategy is its high cost. Most states under most circumstances simply cannot bear the burden, and opt for a less costly strategy. Schroeder believes that when under threat, a state has a number of strategies from which to choose: balancing, hiding, transcending, and bandwagoning. Balancing is actually the least common strategy adopted, and is usually a last resort, while bandwagoning and hiding are far more common.11 "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "Schweller tries to bring the concept of the ‘revisionist state’ back into the language of realism. He does not believe that the world consists of identical states that all seek to maintain the status quo, but that there are state quo states and revisionist states. The former are supporters of the current international system and intent upon ‘preserving their own status and position within the system’. They are satisfied states. The latter are losers under the current arrangement, or sometimes outside of it, and want to revise the existing system.6 Status quo states balance against states and alliances they perceive as a threat to their own security and/or the security of the system as a whole; they are ‘security-maximizing states’. Revisionist states, on the other hand, are primarily concerned with destroying the current order and making additional gains. Many, therefore, choose to bandwagon with revisionist great powers bent on constructing a new international system; they are ‘power-maximizing states’.7 "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "In today's post-Cold War global environment, the United States (US) has clearly become the dominant power and a hegemonic force. Waltz's theory would predict other states’ attempting to counter US supremacy, thereby leading to a new balance of power in international politics. But this has not been the case; on the contrary, many states have chosen to participate in American power and primacy. Moreover, when reviewing the history of non-European regions, it is clear that balances of power have not frequently occurred. Also, that the existence of hegemonic states or empires is possible within the realm of international politics. During China's Warring States (475–221 BC) period the ultimate result of the ‘seven powers competition’ was not ‘seven powers co-existence’, but the creation of a ‘unified’ empire after the state of Qin had destroyed the other six. "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "In his Theory of International Politics, Waltz established the foundations of the structural realism upon which he constructed his balance of power theory. He asserts that international politics operates in an anarchical system where there is no overarching government and where power is the ultimate arbiter. Each country exists in a Hobbesian ‘state of nature’ and faces tremendous pressure in the competition to survive. This competitive pressure engenders different types of state behavior: on the one hand, it requires members of the international system to ‘imitate’ the actions of the most successful states, which leads to ‘socialization’ and ‘like units’; on the other, a rapid increase in one state's power prompts others to augment theirs in response to it and, if this is insufficient, to ally with other states in order to contain the latent hegemon. Once a balance of power occurs, hegemonic ambitions disappear. In this sense, the anarchical international system resembles Adam Smith's ‘invisible hand’ of the marketplace. Under such conditions, ‘structural constraints’ emerge and ‘patterns of behavior’ develop that either reward or punish different state actions. As self-interested state actors continue to pursue selfish goals under the pressure of this ‘invisible hand’, one unexpected by-product is a balance of power.2 "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "A problem that frequently arises for states in international politics is that of how to deal with one particular state's rapid growth in power and subsequent hegemonic ambitions. The ‘standard solution’ provided by the realist theory of international relations (IR) is that of other states increasing their power (internally balancing) or allying with others (externally balancing) in order to counter the rising power and ensure their own security and survival. Kenneth Waltz, one of the founders of structural realism, contends that in an international system characterized by anarchy where no overarching government exists to enforce laws, ‘balancing, not bandwagoning, is the behaviour induced by the system’.1 "

The Strategic Implications of Changes in Military Technology -- Jin 1 (2): 163 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

The Strategic Implications of Changes in Military Technology -- Jin 1 (2): 163 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "Proponents of offense/defense theory often attribute the changes in a nation's offense/defense balance (ODB) to alterations in its military strategies. They assume that when a nation's technological capabilities favor offense, the state will be inclined to adopt an offensive military strategy; similarly, when a nation's armed forces have a defensive advantage, the state will be disposed to pursuing a defensive strategy.1 In essence, offense/defense theory views adjustments in military doctrine as the product of changes in the balance of military capabilities."

WFS--Top Ten Forecasts 2007

WFS--Top  Ten Forecasts 2007: "Workers will increasingly choose more time over more money. The productivity boom in the U.S. economy during the twentieth century created a massive consumer culturepeople made more money, so they bought more stuff. In the twenty-first century, however, workers will increasingly choose to trade higher salaries for more time with their families. Nearly a third of U.S. workers recently polled said they would prefer more time off rather than more hours of paid employment. "

WFS--Top Ten Forecasts 2007

WFS--Top  Ten Forecasts 2007: "Workers will increasingly choose more time over more money. The productivity boom in the U.S. economy during the twentieth century created a massive consumer culturepeople made more money, so they bought more stuff. In the twenty-first century, however, workers will increasingly choose to trade higher salaries for more time with their families. Nearly a third of U.S. workers recently polled said they would prefer more time off rather than more hours of paid employment. "

WFS--Top Ten Forecasts 2007

WFS--Top  Ten Forecasts 2007: "Brown and Weiner also predict that by 2025, 75% of Americans will live on the country’s coasts."

March 21, 2007: Massive Diversion of U.S. Grain to Fuel Cars is Raising World Food Prices

March 21, 2007: Massive Diversion of U.S. Grain to Fuel Cars is Raising World Food Prices: "Ethanol euphoria is not an acceptable substitute for a carefully thought through policy. For Washington, it is time to decide whether to continue with the current policy of subsidizing more and more grain-based fuel distilleries or to encourage a shift to more fuel-efficient cars and a new automotive fuel economy centered on plug-in hybrid cars and wind energy. The choice is between a future of rising world food prices, spreading hunger, and growing political instability, or one of stable food prices, sharply reduced dependence on oil, and much lower carbon emissions."

“The process of meeting the needs of current and future generation, without undermining the resilience of the life-supporting properties, or the integrity and cohesion of social systems.”

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SEF - Quickfinder: "GLOBAL TRENDS is a standard work containing facts, analyses and forecasts on key developments in global society. Prepared in collaboration with the Institute for Development and Peace, it is published every two years (only once in English as yet)."

Oberg - What is peace? Summarising 35 years of thinking and practising: "The only realistic way to handle conflict is to accept and embrace them, become clever at handling them – in short, stop conflict avoidance and reduce conflict illiteracy, i.e. intensify across the board education and professionalization when it comes to learning how to “quarrel well.” This means that, grosso modo, peace can be learnt and has extremely little to do with good versus evil human beings as some will have us believe.
So, the dynamics or peace is perfectly compatible with conflict, indeed it can’t be separated from it. What it is incompatible with and must be separated from is violence. Thus, for true peace we need violence prevention or, to quote the UN Charter most significant and globally recognized (but violated) norm: peace by peaceful means (Article 1.1) and the abolition of war as an accepted social institution (the Preamble’s first sentence)."

Oberg - What is peace? Summarising 35 years of thinking and practising

Oberg - What is peace? Summarising 35 years of thinking and practising: "In short, conflict happens. Development creates it, security seeks to handle it. No human person can mature and develop as human being without experiencing conflict, for instance inner moral dilemmas and quarrels with parents, siblings and friends. A society without conflict cannot but be authoritarian, Orwellian or a dictatorship. There are those who say that - in theory at least - democracy is, so far, the best way to handle conflict.
In parenthesis, the modern talk of ‘conflict prevention’ is philosophical nonsense and, subconsciously probably just another way to avoid the unpleasant fact that conflict is an essential and unavoidable aspect of our lives. How much easier it would be if conflict would just go away! But, alas, the conflict-free world is a utopia, a place that can never be. Should we ever develop it, it would be dystopia. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Conflict over increasing energy needs is foreseeable; consequently, although demand for energy resources at the global level may be a catalyst for short-term cooperation, it may also lead to conflicts. "

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "“Our psychological architecture makes us think in particular ways,” says Bering, now at Queens University in Belfast, Northern Ireland. “In this study, it seems, the reason afterlife beliefs are so prevalent is that underlying them is our inability to simulate our nonexistence"

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "The bottom line, according to byproduct theorists, is that children are born with a tendency to believe in omniscience, invisible minds, immaterial souls — and then they grow up in cultures that fill their minds, hard-wired for belief, with specifics. It is a little like language acquisition, Paul Bloom says, with the essential difference that language is a biological adaptation and religion, in his view, is not. We are born with an innate facility for language but the specific language we learn depends on the environment in which we are raised. In much the same way, he says, we are born with an innate tendency for belief, but the specifics of what we grow up believing — whether there is one God or many, whether the soul goes to heaven or occupies another animal after death — are culturally shaped. "

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "A second mental module that primes us for religion is causal reasoning. The human brain has evolved the capacity to impose a narrative, complete with chronology and cause-and-effect logic, on whatever it encounters, no matter how apparently random. “We automatically, and often unconsciously, look for an explanation of why things happen to us,” Barrett wrote, “and ‘stuff just happens’ is no explanation. Gods, by virtue of their strange physical properties and their mysterious superpowers, make fine candidates for causes of many of these unusual events.” The ancient Greeks believed thunder was the sound of Zeus’s thunderbolt. Similarly, a contemporary woman whose cancer treatment works despite 10-to-1 odds might look for a story to explain her survival. It fits better with her causal-reasoning tool for her recovery to be a miracle, or a reward for prayer, than for it to be just a lucky roll of the dice."

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "What does this mean for belief in the supernatural? It means our brains are primed for it, ready to presume the presence of agents even when such presence confounds logic. “The most central concepts in religions are related to agents,” Justin Barrett, a psychologist, wrote in his 2004 summary of the byproduct theory, “Why Would Anyone Believe in God?” Religious agents are often supernatural, he wrote, “people with superpowers, statues that can answer requests or disembodied minds that can act on us and the world.”"

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: " how culture is transmitted among human groups and what evolutionary function it might serve. “I started looking at history, and I wondered why no society ever survived more than three generations without a religious foundation as its raison d’être,” he says. Soon he turned to an emerging subset of evolutionary theory — the evolution of human cognition."

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "religious belief requires taking “what is materially false to be true” and “what is materially true to be false.” One example of this is the belief that even after someone dies and the body demonstrably disintegrates, that person will still exist, will still be able to laugh and cry, to feel pain and joy. This confusion “does not appear to be a reasonable evolutionary strategy,” "

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "When a trait is universal, evolutionary biologists look for a genetic explanation and wonder how that gene or genes might enhance survival or reproductive success. In many ways, it’s an exercise in post-hoc hypothesizing: what would have been the advantage, when the human species first evolved, for an individual who happened to have a mutation that led to, say, a smaller jaw, a bigger forehead, a better thumb? How about certain behavioral traits, like a tendency for risk-taking or for kindness? "

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "Angels, demons, spirits, wizards, gods and witches have peppered folk religions since mankind first started telling stories. Charles Darwin noted this in “The Descent of Man.” “A belief in all-pervading spiritual agencies,” he wrote, “seems to be universal.” According to anthropologists, religions that share certain supernatural features — belief in a noncorporeal God or gods, belief in the afterlife, belief in the ability of prayer or ritual to change the course of human events — are found in virtually every culture on earth."

Evolution and Religion - Darwin’s God - Robin Marantz Henig - New York Times: "Call it God; call it superstition; call it, as Atran does, “belief in hope beyond reason” — whatever you call it, there seems an inherent human drive to believe in something transcendent, unfathomable and otherworldly, something beyond the reach or understanding of science. “Why do we cross our fingers during turbulence, even the most atheistic among us?” "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "In recent years, Russia has acquired new confidence about its role in global affairs. Putin succeeded in reinforcing the state, which was threatened with disintegration, and in gaining renewed geopolitical influence in its near abroad by using its energy leverage. Russia is moving powerfully in other contexts to play a greater role in the global geopolitical system. Putin's recent trip to the Persian Gulf is an example of this. Russia's foreign policy is aimed at gaining a part of the influence it lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The situation of the global energy market is a fundamental concern for Russia and this issue could represent an element of division between it and Saudi Arabia because they have two divergent approaches to the question. Both countries want to use energy as a geopolitical lever, but their aims in such a field are different. Saudi Arabia wants to raise its oil production in order to lower oil prices as an instrument to weaken Iran's emergence as a major regional power and to secure its relations with the West; by maintaining positive relations with the West, Saudi Arabia earns the protection of the United States and its allies. Russia, however, wants to maintain high oil prices because higher revenues in this field could permit Moscow to maintain its strong economic development and to offset the difficult process of modernizing its energy industry. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The Persian Gulf is clearly one of the most important areas for the global balance of power. It is still the most important region for world energy supplies, and it is the theater where an important geopolitical shift is emerging out of competition between the United States and Iran. For Russia, playing a primary role in this region represents an important element to its internal stability."