Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman

Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "This damage has put the American model of free-market capitalism under a cloud. The financial system is seen as having collapsed; and the regulatory framework, as having spectacularly failed to curb widespread abuses and corruption. Now, searching for stability, the U.S. government and some European governments have nationalized their financial sectors to a degree that contradicts the tenets of modern capitalism. Much of the world is turning a historic corner and heading into a period in which the role of the state will be larger and that of the private sector will be smaller. As it does, the United States' global power, as well as the appeal of U.S.-style democracy, is eroding. Although the United States is fortunate that this crisis coincides with the promise inherent in the election of Barack Obama as president, historical forces -- and the crash of 2008 -- will carry the world away from a unipolar system regardless."

Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman

Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the United States and Europe. Over the medium term, Washington and European governments will have neither the resources nor the economic credibility to play the role in global affairs that they otherwise would have played. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the interim, they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the United States."

Economic Growth Fueling Rise of Emerging Players
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.

200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial

200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial: "Other projections in 'Global Trends 2025': include:
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."

200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial

200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial

The ODNI report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system.  The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says.  Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, "Global Trends 2025" concludes. 

Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018

Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018: "The eight trends are as follows:
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."

Global Trends 2025: A "more complex international system" is likely by the year 2025, with global power shifts making the world "almost unrecognizable" by then. The National Intelligence Council, which does strategic thinking for the U.S. intelligence community, takes a look into the future with its "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Globalization and the rise of eastern nations and non-state actors mean that "the players are changing." Among the changes likely in the coming decades: the gap between developed and developing nations will narrow, conflicts will erupt over ever scarcer resources like water and oil, and the United States is likely to remain the major world power, but it will "become more constrained" as other nations and factions rise. Uncertainties remain about whether these demographic and economic issues will lead to a more cooperative or fragmented world, but unpredictable "major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises" are sure to affect the course of history.

Intervention by any name Ultra-modern conventional armed forces and weapons are ill-suited to fight today’s asymmetrical wars against non-state actors resorting to sub-conventional arms and tactics. But supercarriers, supersonic aircraft, anti-missile missiles, military satellites, surveillance robots, and unmanned vehicles and boats are not going out of season. Intervention, direct and indirect, open and covert, military and civic, in the internal affairs of other states has been standard US foreign policy since 1945. The US has not hesitated to intervene, mostly unilaterally, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Bolivia and Colombia, in pursuit of its imperial interest.

Taking the USAID (United States Agency for International Development), Fulbright Programme and Congress for Cultural Freedom of the anti-Communist cold war as their model, the stalwarts of the new global war on terror have created equivalents in the State Department’s Millennial Challenge and Middle East Partnership Initiative. The defence department enlists universities through Project Minerva to help with the new model counterinsurgency warfare and unconventional military state-building operations.

But though they endure, overextended empires suffer injuries to their power and prestige. In such moments they tend to lash out, to avoid being taken for paper tigers. Given Washington’s predicament in Iraq, will the US escalate its intervention in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Somalia or Venezuela? The US has the strongest army the world has ever known. Preponderant on sea, in the air and in space (including cyberspace), the US has an awesome capacity to project its power over enormous distances with speed, a self-appointed sheriff rushing to master or exploit real and putative crises anywhere on earth. In the words of the former secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld: “No corner of the world is remote enough, no mountain high enough, no cave or bunker deep enough, no SUV fast enough to protect our enemies from our reach.”

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/2008/10survivebush.htm

A disruptive technology is defined "as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable -- even if temporary -- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of U.S. national power," the report said. Those elements are geopolitical, military, economic or social cohesion. It identified six technologies that have that potential.

Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.

Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.

Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.

Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.

Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.

The U.S. population will get older, but not to the extent of Western Europe, Japan and China, where the the ratio of young productive people to seniors will begin to approach 1-3. "That is a pretty heavy burden on economic growth," Fingar said.

The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.

Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.

"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.

The "overwhelming dominance that the United States has enjoyed in the international system in military, political, economic and arguably cultural arenas is eroding and will erode at an accelerating pace, with the partial exception of military,"

At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com

At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com: "The participants were not particularly optimistic. They presented data showing that the boom in biofuels was depleting Southeast Asian rain forests, that “bot herders” — computer hackers for hire — were hijacking millions of computers, and that the lack of progress over handling nuclear waste was both hampering the revival of nuclear energy and adding to terrorism risks."

What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila

What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila: ". Restructuring of American Business
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best."
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company ca n make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.

This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing - outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.

Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia

Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia: "According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet.According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet."

Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times

Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times: "Toward a Type 1 civilization
Along with energy policy, political and economic systems must also evolve.
By Michael Shermer
July 22, 2008
Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium."
We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain.


In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.

Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0.

Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1.

Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization.

We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like:



Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.

Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy.

Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor.

Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.

Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.

Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.

Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy.

Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.

Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.

Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.

The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens.

For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward.

The bulk of the book is devoted to demonstrating the accuracy of this contention through
three historical examples of states that had become Great Powers by following a sound and
balanced geostrategy, but failed to adjust to the sixteenth century geopolitical shift by becoming
undisciplined, complacent, or fearful. In the case of Venice, the doges initially made good use of
the city’s favorable location between Latin Christendom and the Byzantine Empire to become the
western terminus of Eurasian trade networks and the main supplier of Asian goods to the whole
of Western Europe. By establishing control over a network of bases and harbors in the Adriatic
and the Aegean in the eleventh century, Venice ensured its rise as the premier Great Power in the
Mediterranean.

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But no situation can be described as unique, since the words with which we describe it are categories which presume features common to some larger group, hence to some continuing structure that ap pears to be stable. And at the same time no truths hold forever because the world is of course inevitably and eternally changing. We have indeed to work with temporarily useful structures/categories that bear within them the processes by which they get transformed into other structures/categories"

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But, as we have come collectively to know quite clearly in the last few decades, there exists more than one cleavage in any historical system. I therefore began to spend energy trying to analyze which ere the major cleavages in the modern world-system, how they differed the ones from the others, how they related to each other, and how each cleavage limited the effects of each other. I have made an effort to piece apart what I think of as the five major cleavages of our modern world: race, nation, class, ethnicity, and gender"

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein

Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "In the course of my quest, I initially thought that the debate was merely about the empirical analysis of contemporary reality, but I soon became aware that it was a question too of the very tools of analysis. The ones I had been taught seemed to me to circumscribe our empirical analyses and distort our in terpretations. Slowly, over some twenty years, my views evolved, until by the 1970s I began to say that I was trying to look at the world from a perspective that I called “world-systems analysis.” This involved two major intellectual decisions. The first was that the choice of the ‘unit of analysis” was crucial. I became increasingly aware that all of modern social science presumes that the state boundaries constitute the boundaries of “societies.” I came to be convinced that this was a very misleading assumption. Instead, I came to argue that the only plausible unit of analysis was a “world-system,” or more generally, an “historical social system.”"

'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech

'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech: "A new approach to storing electrical energy can store more energy than gasoline in the same volume, and could help extend the range of electric vehicles. But some experts say other approaches are more practical.The biggest technological hurdle facing electric vehicles is their range. Even the best rechargeable batteries cannot match the density of energy stored in a fuel tank.Combining electric power with a combustion engine to make a hybrid electric vehicle sidesteps that problem. But a new take on electrical power storage that is part battery, part chemical fuel cell could ditch gasoline for good.The new design stores energy more densely than petrol, and was conceived by Stuart Licht of the University"

Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred

Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred: "“NATION shall speak peace unto nation.” Eighty years ago, Britain’s state broadcasters adopted that motto to signal their hope that modern communications would establish new bonds of friendship between people divided by culture, political boundaries and distance.
For those who still cling to that ideal, the latest trends on the internet are depressing. Of course, as anyone would expect, governments use their official websites to boast about their achievements and to argue their corner—usually rather clunkily—in disputes about territory, symbols or historical rights and wrongs.
What is much more disturbing is the way in which skilled young surfers—the very people whom the internet might have liberated from the shackles of state-sponsored ideologies—are using the wonders of electronics to stoke hatred between countries, races or religions. Sometimes these cyber-zealots seem to be acting at their governments’ behest—but often they are working on their own,"

The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent

The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent: "Consumer trends can simplistically be broken down to three parts; demographics, health and wellness and aspiration. Looking first at demographics we see the re-emergence of a regular theme in my column: urbanisation. Today, 49 per cent of the world's population lives in towns and cities and by 2030 this is forecast to grow to 60 per cent. In addition, the global urban population will grow from 3 billion in 2003 to 5 billion by 2030. These changing demographics will affect the way wages grow and living standards change, providing fantastic opportunities for the likes of convenience stores, branded products, healthcare providers and retailers."

Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times

Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "Mr. Penn notes that a 2001 bipartisan commission “said that the greatest threat to American national security — behind only terrorist attacks — was the threat of failing to provide sufficient math and science education in America.”"

Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times

Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "The thesis of Mr. Penn’s book is that “you can’t understand the world anymore only in terms of ‘megatrends,’ or universal experience. In today’s splintered society, if you want to operate successfully, you have to understand the intense identity groups that are growing and moving, fast and furious, in crisscrossing directions.” In the United States, he notes, these society-changing “microtrends” can involve as few as three million people, about 1 percent of the population."

Small numbers, big influence

Small numbers, big influence: "The book’s underlying philosophy is quite refined. The argument is that societal fragmentation occurs because, in a post-modernist and individualistic world, people are beginning to make personal choices. In the process, many niches are being created, and the world is becoming more complex.
One of the important things that lend credence to the 75 microtrends mentioned is the amount of research Penn has done. He always provides bars and statistics to back up his identification of each mini segment of society. Each essay also starts off with how these small movements first gain their momentum, as well as their effects on society and the world as a whole."

Small numbers, big influence

Small numbers, big influence: "The book comprises concise essays that are divided into 15 main areas of life: Love, Work, Religion, Health, Family, Politics, Teens, Food and Drink, Lifestyle, Money and Class, Fashion, Technology, Entertainment, Education, and International. Each of these areas has four to five subgroups, for a grand total of 75 essays. To say the least, the book’s scale is large."

Small numbers, big influence

Small numbers, big influence: "MARK Penn’s Microtrends is intriguing because it seems so counter intuitive. Our instinct tells us that the world is dominated by big trends, but, like Stephen Levitt in Freakonomics, Penn argues that these overspanning trends can sometimes be merely a misguided form of conventional wisdom. He points out that to really understand developments that change the world, we have to look at underlying facts, especially through numbers and statistics.
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent

We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "There are grounds for hope, however. The use of renewable energy is growing, and China's largest car maker plans for half its cars to be hybrids within two years. But the report's authors say that governments are not up to the job: 'Many of the world's decision-making processes are inefficient, slow and ill-informed, especially when given the new demands from increasing complexity [and] globalisation.' They call on world leaders to do more long-term planning, and to join in global approaches to the interlocking crises. 'Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organised crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded.'"

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent

We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Yet nuclear power – the solution increasingly favoured by governments, which are planning to add another 350 reactors to the 438 already operating around the world – will not do the job. 'For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants would have to be built, at $5-15bn per plant, over 15 years – and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050.'
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent

We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "And this is happening in a world that is already becoming freer and more democratic. Over the past 30 years, the number of free countries has more than doubled from 43 to 90, it reports, while those that are partly free increased from 46 to 60. Just over one-third of humanity still lives in the 43 countries with authoritarian regimes, but half of these people are in China."

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent

We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Life expectancy and literacy rates are increasing worldwide, while infant mortality and the number of armed conflicts have been falling fast. Per capita income has been growing strongly enough to cut poverty by more than half by 2015 – except, importantly, in Africa.
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent

We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "It goes on. 'This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the internet, international trade, language translation and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve [its] prospects. It is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve [them].'"

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "However, it notes that 'Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges.'"

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions, says this report published by the Millennium Project, a global participatory futures research think tank affiliated with the World Federation of UN Associations."

Bloomberg.com: News

Bloomberg.com: News: "Obesity in China Doubled in 11 Years With Rising Prosperity

By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."

HealthMap | Global disease alert map

HealthMap | Global disease alert map: "HealthMap
Global disease alert map"

Global Catastrophic Risks

Global Catastrophic Risks: "In the history of life on Earth the human species is a very latecomer. But the human impact on the Earth has slowly and then rapidly increased, most of all in the last 250 years, to what has been widely predicted as an unsustainable level in just a few generations hence.
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."

Global Catastrophic Risks

Global Catastrophic Risks: "Global catastrophes have occurred many times in history, even if we only count disasters causing more than 10 million deaths. A very partial list of examples includes the An Shi Rebellion (756-763), the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), and the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the native American population through smallpox and other diseases following the arrival of European colonizers. Many others could be added to this list."

Dr Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity, has co-edited a book called Global Catastrophic Risks, to be published by OUP in June 2008. The book
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.

Science Journal - WSJ.com

Science Journal - WSJ.com: "In ways we are only beginning to understand, the synapses and neurons in the human nervous system work in concert to perceive the world around them, to learn from their perceptions, to remember important experiences, to plan ahead, and to decide and act on incomplete information. In a rudimentary way, they predetermine our choices."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet, with the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, according to a report by Jupiter Research.

Asia will have the highest online growth rate compared to other regions in the world, ans a large pool of sophisticated online users."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Christian Science Monitor, June 18, 2008

A simple new low-cost solar dish developed by MIT students produces steam heat for less than the cost of heat from oil or natural gas, according to the MIT team.

The steam heat can be used cost effectively for manufacturing, food pasteurization, and heating buildings.

New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists

New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists: "A new discovery by a scientist from The University of Western Ontario provides conclusive evidence which supports decades-old evolutionary doctrines long accepted as fact."

Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order

Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order: "On the supply side, when we look at how much money we need to invest to increase production, we mainly look at how much oil demand will grow in the future. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. The main problem here is that the existing fields, many mature fields, are declining. So we have to increase production, not only to meet the growth in demand, but also to compensate for the decline in existing mature fields outside of OPEC. These decline-rate issues are not really taken into consideration, which is much more important than demand growth when it comes to production prospects. Our book, World Energy Outlook 2008, will provide a lot of data on that."

Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order

Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order: "The bulk of the oil has in the past been produced by the international oil companies, so-called Big Oil. But their existing reserves are declining in what they have under ownership. They have no access to new reserves, the bulk of which are in Middle East countries. In most of these countries, only the national oil company can, by law, invest. So, even though the international oil companies may have the capital and the technology, they don’t have access to the reserves. Therefore, the bulk of the growth in the future needs to come from the national oil companies, and perhaps price will no longer be the main determinant when they make their [production] decisions, because for many countries, oil is their only natural endowment. And those countries legitimately value and want to leave their one and only natural endowment for future generations."

Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US Interests out to 2025 – (National Intelligence Council – April, 2008)http://www.dni.gov/nic/confreports_disruptive_tech.htmlA “disruptive technology” is defined as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion). The six disruptive technologies most likely to enhance or degrade US national power out to 2025 were in the areas of: Biogerontechnology; Energy Storage Materials; Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals; Clean Coal Technologies; Service Robotics; and the Internet of Things.

The Dirty Truth about Canada's Tar-Sands Baby – (Foreign Policy – October 30, 2007)http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/6843Canada is already the largest supplier of oil to the United States. Tar-sand extraction has exploded since oil prices began to rise with the start of the Iraq war, and Canada's total oil output will soon double Kuwait's. But tar-sand extraction comes at a much higher environmental cost than traditional drilling. The extraction of the oil requires heat, and thus the burning of vast amounts of natural gas - effectively one barrel of gas to extract two of crude - and some estimate that Fort McMurray and the Athabasca oil sands will soon be Canada's biggest contributor to global warming; nearly as much as the whole of Denmark. This in an area that has already seen, according to David Schindler, professor of ecology at the University of Alberta, two degrees of warming in the past 40 years.

Africa Fast Running Down Resources – (Planet Ark – June 10, 2008http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/48713/story.htmMany African countries are rapidly running down their natural resources as growing populations push the continent towards its ecological limits. The warning was issued in its first-ever detailed report on Africa's ecological footprint -- an estimate of the area of a country or region's land and sea surface used annually in meeting the individual consumption demands of its people. The report put Egypt, Libya and Algeria at the head of a list of nations of the continent already living well beyond their ecological means. But nine others were also using up their bio-capacity -- Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

The World is Upside Down – (Herald Tribune – June 1, 2008) http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/01/opinion/edcohen.php?page=1
Globalization is now a two-way street; in fact it's an Indian street with traffic weaving in all directions. "In an inverted world, not only have developing economies become dominant forces in global exports in the space of a few years, but their companies are becoming major players in the global economy, challenging the incumbents that dominated the international scene in the 20th century," said Claudio Frischtak, a Brazilian economist and consultant.A shift in economic power is underway whose implications the developed world has not grasped.

FUTUREdition - The Future Today

FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "Harnessing Sunlight on the Cheap (Phys Org – May 7, 2008)
http://www.physorg.com/news129389932.html
For a project that could be on the very cutting edge of renewable energy, this one is actually decidedly low tech–and that’s the point. A team of MIT students has spent the last few months assembling a prototype for a concentrating solar power system they think could revolutionize the field. It’s a 12-foot-square mirrored dish capable of concentrating sunlight by a factor of 1,000, built from simple, inexpensive industrial materials selected for price, durability and ease of assembly rather than for optimum performance."

FUTUREdition - The Future Today

FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "Tasmanian Tiger DNA Resurrected – (BBC News – May 20, 2008)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7408840.stm
A fragment of DNA from the Tasmanian tiger has been brought back to life. The last living specimen died in Hobart zoo in 1936. Australian scientists extracted genetic material from a 100-year-old museum specimen, and put it into a mouse embryo to study how it worked.
It is the first time DNA of an extinct species has been used in this way, says a University of Melbourne team. Some researchers think the method could help reveal the function of genes in species such as the Neanderthals or mammoths."

FUTUREdition - The Future Today

FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "A Critique of Shortsighted Anthropic Principles – (Phys Org – May 16, 2008)
http://www.physorg.com/news130167074.html
Many people marvel that we live in a universe that seems to be precisely tailored to suit the development of intelligent life. The observation is the basis for some forms of “Anthropic Principles” that strive to explain why the laws of physics take the form we observe, given the nearly countless other possibilities permitted by schools of thought such as string theory. But a new paper in Physical Review Letters from a group of physicists at Case Western Reserve University argues that any connection between the laws of physics and the existence of life is likely to be an illusion stemming from our shortsighted definition of intelligent life."

We're really subsidising Opec-Swaminomics-Swaminathan A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Times of India

We're really subsidising Opec-Swaminomics-Swaminathan A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Times of India: "Rich countries have learned from history, but developing countries have not. The demand for oil in rich countries is slowing today with rising prices. Petrol consumption has fallen in the US as the price has risen to $4/gallon. US demand for gas-guzzling large cars has collapsed, and General Motors wants to sell its Hummer brand, the largest car of all. All these positive outcomes flow from passing on the burden of Opec to the consumer.

But China, India and many developing countries have tried to keep oil prices artificially low. Thus, they have kept demand artificially high (they now account for a big chunk of world demand). And that is why Opec is able to sell oil at $135/barrel, despite a global slowdown.

Ideally, India should pass on the full cost to consumers, as it did in 1974. But for politicians who view high subsidies as electoral necessities, here is a proposal. First, abolish all implicit and explicit subsidies on oil. Use the money saved to cut excise duties on other items of common consumption and provide cash to poor families. Overall inflation and government revenue will be unchanged. Yet, the poor will benefit, and high oil prices will encourage energy-efficiency. India's oil use will fall, helping lower Opec's prices. That will be better than today's policy, which ends up subsidising Saudi Arabia."

Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com

Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com: "By 2010, China will have more Ph.D. scientists and engineers than the United States. These professionals are not fundamentally a threat. To the contrary, they are creators, whose ideas are likely to improve the lives of ordinary Americans, not just the business elites. The more access the Chinese have to American and other markets, the more they can afford higher education and the greater their incentive to innovate."

Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com

Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com: "THE last 20 years have brought the world more trade, more globalization and more economic growth than in any previous such period in history. Few commentators had believed that such a rise in trade and living standards was possible so quickly.
David G. KleinMore than 400 million Chinese climbed out of poverty between 1990 and 2004, according to the World Bank. India has become a rapidly growing economy, the middle class in Brazil and Mexico is flourishing, and recent successes of Ghana and Tanzania show that parts of Africa may be turning the corner as well."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Thanks also, I should note, to the success of the system’s
modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of
entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption,
drugs, liquor, and religion that has so far successful deadened most of
the general public into apathetic stupor."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Third, military overstretch. Empires are by definition
colonizers, and trying to keep control over hostage peoples by force
inevitably leads to large and often uncontrollable armies, massive
drains on the economy, and ultimately rebellion on the
periphery. As the Roman empire collapsed when the
“barbarians” at its frontiers revolted and the Roman legions, stretched
from Germany to Africa to Persia and grown unruly and corrupt, were
defeated, as the Persian empire fell in the 5th century BC because it
was unable to maintain the colonies it had established from India to
Africa and the peripheries rose in revolt, so the American empire is
overextended, weakened at the peripheries, forced to use ill-equipped
and undertrained troops to maintain it, and even the generals admit
that it can’t be sustained. We have 547,000 – more than half a million – active troops,
based at (this is amazing and little understood) more than 725 admitted
military bases in at least 40 countries around the world, plus a formal
“military presence” in no less than 153 countries, on every continent
but Antarctica, and nearly a dozen fully armed carrier and missile
fleets on all the seven seas."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "I have studied empires pretty carefully
over the last few years, and I have figured out the basic nature of
these systems and concluded that all empires collapse, and usually
within less than a century, because of their inherent nature.
They not only make mistakes but usually the same set of mistakes,
simply because of the inevitable character of the imperial structure,
which ultimately fails because of its size, complexity, territorial
reach, social stratification, economic disparities, heterogeneity,
domination of people and nature, hierarchy, and environmental ignorance."

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons

Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Let’s say for starters, you know your empire is collapsing when the
empire that is your fiercest rival buys up a total of 26 percent of
three of your major Wall Street firms for $9 billion, and declares that
it has another $200 billion that it is looking to invest.[Since we’re going to be doing some numbers here, I should pause
to give a little reference for the concept “billion.” A billion seconds
ago was . . . 1959, which means some of you here haven’t yet lived a
billion seconds. A billion minutes ago Jesus was walking along
the Sea of Galilee – more than 2 millennia ago. A billion hours
ago, about 100,000 years before the present, the classic Neanderthal
peoples were wandering Europe and the Middle East, and Homo sapiens
started to move out of Africa. We throw the term around a lot,
but a billion is a big, big number.]Next, you might figure your empire is collapsing when its total debt
obligations amount to $50.5 trillion. That is so big that it’s about
the same as the total household income of everyone in the"

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise: "TR10: Modeling Surprise
Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "China has other challenges as well. Aside from its risky social experiment, it has an economy in which less than a quarter of its people truly participate, and its one-child policy is exacerbating the problems of an already aging population. India, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with its overwhelming number of have-nots and its aforementioned corruption. True, India is a democracy, but a democracy muddled by a profusion of divergent political parties."

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?

Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "But “right now” doesn’t mean forever. All you need is a ruler to draw the straight-line extrapolation showing that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. For China, that would occur as early as 2045; for India, the date would be some 20 years later. Which is why you so often hear experts predicting that, by midcentury, the U.S. will be trailing the two new world superpowers.

We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions."

Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study

Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study: "Three Chinese institutions were among the world's top four banks at the end of 2007 at a time when the market capitalisation of Western banks was suffering from a global financial crisis, a study showed Wednesday.
The number one spot in the rankings, compiled by the Boston Consulting Group, was occupied by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with market capitalisation of nearly 340 billion dollars (218 billion euros).
In second place was China Construction Bank, followed by HSBC of Britain, Bank of China, Bank of America and Citigroup of the United States."

Bloomberg.com: News

Bloomberg.com: News: "April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's discoveries of what may be two of the world's three biggest oil finds in the past 30 years could help end the Western Hemisphere's reliance on Middle East crude, Strategic Forecasting Inc. said.
Saudi Arabia's influence as the biggest oil exporter would wane if the fields are as big as advertised, and China and India would become dominant buyers of Persian Gulf oil, said Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at Strategic Forecasting in Austin, Texas. Zeihan's firm, which consults for companies and governments around the world, was described in a 2001 Barron's article as ``the shadow CIA.''
Brazil may be pumping ``several million'' barrels of crude daily by 2020, vaulting the nation into the ranks of the world's seven biggest producers, Zeihan said in a telephone interview. The U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters would be reduced, leaving the region exposed to more conflict, he said.
``We could see that world becoming a very violent one,'' said Zeihan, former chief of Middle East and East Asia analysis for Strategic Forecasting. ``If the United States isn't getting any crude from the Gulf, what benefit does it have in policing the Gulf anymore? All of the geopolitical flux that wracks that region regularly suddenly isn't our problem.''"

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "The migrations of humans out of Africa to populate the rest of the world appear to have begun about 60,000 years ago, but little has been known about humans between Eve and that dispersal.
The new study looks at the mitochondrial DNA of the Khoi and San people in South Africa, who appear to have diverged from other people between 90,000 and 150,000 years ago.
The researchers led by Doron Behar of Rambam Medical Center in Haifa, Israel, and Saharon Rosset of IBM T.J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York, and Tel Aviv University concluded that humans separated into small populations before the Stone Age, when they came back together and began to increase in numbers and spread to other areas."

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Studies using mitochondrial DNA, which is passed down through mothers, have traced modern humans to a single 'mitochondrial Eve,' who lived in Africa about 200,000 years ago."

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com

Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Human beings may have had a brush with extinction 70,000 years ago, an extensive genetic study suggests.

Geneticist Spencer Wells, here meeting an African village elder, says the study tells 'truly an epic drama.'
The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought, according to an analysis released Thursday.
The report notes that a separate study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that the number of early humans may have shrunk as low as 2,000 before numbers began to expand again in the early Stone Age."

Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain | Worldwatch Institute

Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain Worldwatch Institute: "Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one cer­tainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.) Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one cer­tainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.)"

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025."

ID21 - communicating development research

ID21 - communicating development research: "A publication from the Oxford Research Group, in the UK, challenges the idea that the ‘war on terror’ must be prioritised over all other global challenges. Current responses to terrorism may actually provoke rather than contain it. The authors identify four challenges more deserving of international attention: climate change; competition over resources; socio-economic marginalisation of the majority world; and global militarisation."

TheMercury.com - News Article

TheMercury.com - News Article: "As important as military strength is to China today, economic development and political stability are just as central to its leaders' thinking—as Ambassador Zhou himself made clear when he was here just 11 weeks ago. From the U.S. perspective, China's growing engagement with the rest of the world is driven primarily by two things: a need for access to markets, resources, technology, and expertise, and a desire to assert its influence in the region and with developing countries in other parts of the world.
I should note that even as it aspires to a larger global role, China faces significant domestic challenges and structural weaknesses: things like uneven income distribution, growing dependence on foreign oil and other imported resources, environmental degradation, an aging population, and massive migration from rural areas to cities. All of these factors will influence China's trajectory, and we can't ignore them. But to me, the key question for the future is whether China is ready to accept the responsibility that comes along with 'great power status.'"

TheMercury.com - News Article

TheMercury.com - News Article: "I say that with full appreciation for the remarkable speed and scope of China's recent military buildup. The Chinese have fully absorbed the lessons of both Gulf wars, developing and integrating advanced weaponry into a modern military force. While it's true that these new capabilities could pose a risk to U.S. forces and interests in the region, the military modernization is as much about projecting strength as anything else. After two centuries of perceived Western hegemony, China is determined to flex its muscle. It sees an advanced military force as an essential element of great power status. And it is the Intelligence Community's view that any Chinese regime, even a democratic one, would have similar nationalist goals."

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 07 - yves.conta@gmail.com

"We Have the Technology that Can Make a Cloned Child – (Independent – April 14, 2008)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/now-we-have-the-technology-that-can-make-a-cloned-child-808625.html
A new form of cloning has been developed that is easier to carry out than the technique used to create Dolly the sheep, raising fears (and hopes) that it may one day be used on human embryos to produce 'designer' babies. Scientists who used the procedure to create baby mice from the skin cells of adult animals have found it to be far more efficient than the Dolly technique, with fewer side effects, which makes it more acceptable for human use."

He Wrote 200,000 Books (but Computers Did Some of the Work) - New York Times

Meteorites Delivered the 'Seeds' of Earth's Left-hand Life – (PhysOrg – April 6, 2008)
http://www.physorg.com/news126694357.html
Flash back three or four billion years — Earth is a hot, dry and lifeless place. All is still. Without warning, a meteor slams into the desert plains at over ten thousand miles per hour. With it, this violent collision may have planted the chemical seeds of life on Earth. Scientists have evidence that desert heat, a little water, and meteorite impacts may have been enough to cook up one of the first prerequisites for life: the dominance of “left-handed” amino acids, the building blocks of life on this planet. In a report at the 235th national meeting of the American Chemical Society, Ronald Breslow, Ph.D., University Professor, Columbia University, and former ACS President, described how our amino acid signature came from outer space.

Evolution: 24 myths and misconceptions - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution: 24 myths and misconceptions - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "Shared misconceptions:

Everything is an adaptation produced by natural selection

Natural selection is the only means of evolution

Natural selection leads to ever-greater complexity

Evolution produces creatures perfectly adapted to their environment

Evolution always promotes the survival of species

It doesn't matter if people do not understand evolution

'Survival of the fittest' justifies 'everyone for themselves'

Evolution is limitlessly creative

Evolution cannot explain traits such as homosexuality

Creationism provides a coherent alternative to evolution"

Evolution myths: 'Survival of the fittest' justifies 'everyone for themselves' - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: 'Survival of the fittest' justifies 'everyone for themselves' - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "Looked at from this point of view, the concept of the survival of the fittest could be used to justify socialism rather than laissez-faire capitalism. Then again, the success of social insects could be used to argue for totalitarianism. Which illustrates another point: it is nonsense to appeal to the 'survival of the fittest' to justify any economic or political ideology, especially on the basis that it is 'natural'.

Is cannibalism fine because polar bears do it? Is killing your brother or sister fine because nestlings of many bird species do it? Is murdering your children fine because mice sometimes eat their own pups? Is paedophilia fine because bonobo adults have sex with juveniles?"

Evolution myths: 'Survival of the fittest' justifies 'everyone for themselves' - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: 'Survival of the fittest' justifies 'everyone for themselves' - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "What we see in the wild is not every animal for itself. Cooperation is an incredibly successful survival strategy. Indeed it has been the basis of all the most dramatic steps in the history of life. Complex cells evolved from cooperating simple cells. Multicellular organisms are made up of cooperating complex cells. Superorganisms such as bee or ant colonies consist of cooperating individuals."

Evolution myths: Evolution is limitlessly creative - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Evolution is limitlessly creative - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "Nevertheless, there are structures that would clearly be useful but have never evolved. Zebras with built-in machine guns would rarely be bothered by lions, some point out. So why can evolution invent some things but not others?"

Evolution myths: Natural selection leads to ever greater complexity - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Natural selection leads to ever greater complexity - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "In fact, natural selection often leads to ever greater simplicity. And, in many cases, complexity may initially arise when selection is weak or absent.

If you don't use it, you tend to lose it. Evolution often takes away rather than adding. For instance, cave fish lose their eyes, while parasites like tapeworms lose their guts.

Such simplification might be much more widespread than realised. Some apparently primitive creatures are turning out to be the descendants of more complex creatures rather than their ancestors. For instance, it appears the ancestor of brainless starfish and sea urchins had a brain.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that evolution has produced more complex life-forms over the past four billion years. The tough question is: why? It is usually simply assumed to be the result of natural selection, but recently a few biologists studying our own bizarre and bloated genomes have challenged this idea."

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "Random genetic drift has certainly played a big role in human evolution. Human populations were tiny until around 10,000 years ago, and went through a major bottleneck around 2 million years ago. Other bottlenecks occurred when a few individuals migrated out of Africa around 60,000 years ago and colonised other regions.

There is no doubt that most of the genetic differences between humans and other apes – and between different human populations – are due to genetic drift. However, most of these mutations are in the nine-tenths of our genome that is junk, so they make no difference. The interesting question is which mutations affecting our bodies or behaviour have spread because of drift rather than selection, but this is far from clear."

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "The DNA in all organisms is under constant attack from highly reactive chemicals and radiation, and errors are often made when it is copied. As a result, there are at least 100 new mutations in each human embryo, possibly far more. Some are harmful and are likely to be eliminated by natural selection – by death of the embryo, for instance. Most make no difference to our bodies, because most of our DNA is useless junk anyway. A few cause minor changes that are neither particularly harmful nor beneficial.

You might think that largely neutral mutations would remain restricted to a few individuals. In fact, while the vast majority of neutral mutations die out, a few spread throughout a population and thus become 'fixed'. It is pure chance – some just happen to be passed on to more and more individuals in each generation."

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Natural selection is the only means of evolution - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "Much change is due to random genetic drift rather than positive selection. It could be called the survival of the luckiest."

Evolution myths: Everything is an adaptation - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist

Evolution myths: Everything is an adaptation - life - 16 April 2008 - New Scientist: "For all these reasons and more, we need to be sceptical of headline-grabbing claims about evolutionary explanations for different behaviours. Evolutionary psychology in particular is notorious for attempting to explain every aspect of behaviour, from gardening to rape, as an adaptation that arose when our ancestors lived on the African savannah.

Needless to say, without solid evidence, claims about how, for instance, TV dinners 'evolved' should be taken with a large pinch of salt."

The Institute For The Future

The Institute For The Future: "The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is an independent, nonprofit research group with nearly 40 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. We provide insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas."

Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Home

Delta Scan: The Future of Science and Technology, 2005-2055: Home: "Welcome to the Delta Scan. This is a forum for scanning the science and technology horizon over the next 50 years. The forum contains a hundred outlook pages covering a wide range of scientific disciplines and technologies. These include topics associated with the future geography and structure of science."

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net: "University of East Anglia scientist Andrew Watson has developed a new mathematical model of the probability of intelligent life in the universe.

His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests the odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets are low, given the time it has taken for beings such as humans to evolve, the remaining life span of Earth, and the low probability of the four independent evolutionary steps needed to create intelligent life (less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years)."

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net: "In the biggest analysis of flu strains ever, Cambridge University researchers have shown the annual flu epidemic comes from eastern and southeast Asia, a product of the connectedness of people and the patchiness of the region's rainy seasons.

New viruses appeared in eastern and southeast Asia 6 to 9 months before they showed up anywhere else, and took another 6 to 9 months to reach Latin America.

The team found that outbreaks follow the cooler temperatures of the rainy seasons, which are staggered in time across the region because of complex geography and air movements. There is always a flu epidemic happening somewhere in east and southeast Asia, they said.

Then when the climatic conditions are right in the northern or southern temperate zones, they seed the next winter epidemic, which goes to Europe, Oceania, and North America first."

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net: "Among the forecasts:

- Our grandchildren will live to be 140 years old.
- Diseases such as breast cancer and heart disease will be preventable or even wiped out.
- Each of us will have a copy of our own complete DNA sequence, incorporated into a highly accurate electronic medical record and can be accessible from anywhere.
- Schizophrenia and bipolar disorders will be well understood and treatable.
- People will be forced to marry others based on genotypes and those who are not authorized will be subject to tremendous tax burdens for any sick or disabled children.
- Humans will have exhausted most of the coal and oil reserves of the planet and added many pollutants to the environment.
- We may have lived through a nuclear war."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Recent insights from fields such as complexity theory suggest that the very nature of civilization means that ours, like previous civilizations, is destined to collapse sooner or later.

It appears that once a society develops beyond a certain level of complexity it becomes increasingly fragile. Eventually, the tipping point is reached when all the energy and resources available to a society are required just to maintain its existing level of complexity, says archaeologist Joseph Tainter and author of the 1988 book The Collapse of Complex Societies."

Technology Review: On Markets and Complexity

Technology Review: On Markets and Complexity: "complexity also raises the specter of risks that can cause a crisis in which you don't fully understand what's happening, because you're in a new environment where the structures are different from what they were ten years ago. There's a psychological reason for that. We tend to be much more comfortable doing something familiar than we are with doing something new, even if the risk is the same in both cases. I'm not saying that bad things haven't happened. But if you take a horizon of, say, ten years, on the whole, the system is structurally better, but we probably have had a mismatch between the infrastructural growth and the growth of the innovations such that we find ourselves in a situation that is very costly and expensive and unnerving."

Technology Review: On Markets and Complexity

Technology Review: On Markets and Complexity: "Sometimes the term 'complex' is used as a euphemism for 'less-well understood.' People sometimes say, 'Things have gotten more complex,' but what they're really saying is, 'I understand things less well.'"

On Deep History and the Brain - Daniel Lord Smail - Book Review - New York Times

On Deep History and the Brain - Daniel Lord Smail - Book Review - New York Times: "In “On Deep History and the Brain,” Daniel Lord Smail suggests that human history can be understood as a long, unbroken sequence of snorts and sighs and other self-modifications of our mental states. We want to alter our own moods and feelings, and the rise of man from hunter-gatherer and farmer to office worker and video-game adept is the story of the ever proliferating devices — from coffee and tobacco to religious rites and romance novels — we’ve acquired to do so. Humans, Smail writes, have invented “a dizzying array of practices that stimulate the production and circulation of our own chemical messengers,” and those devices have become more plentiful with time. We make our own history, albeit with neurotransmitters not of our choosing."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "This means that two astounding advances were unfolding during Homo habilis' brief stay on Earth. First, entirely new knowledge was being intentionally generated out of the brain of a single creature. Toolmaking marked the birth of invention. Second, knowledge could now be duplicated and relocated to other minds; it was no longer doomed to die with the brain that conceived it. Just as the evolution of DNA made it possible for a gene to be copied and shared from one generation to the next, mirror neurons, and the new behaviors they made possible, meant that an idea—a “meme,” as Richard Dawkins has put it—could be copied and passed along from one mind to the next. Conscious communication had emerged, even if only in an embryonic form, and in its wake everything from gossip to oratory, mathematics to the laws of Hammurabi, stand-up comedy to the computer code that sends probes to the moons of Saturn would follow. We were building the scaffolding for true human behavior, relationships, and, ultimately, that most monumental of all human inventions: culture."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "Both our toes and thumbs are linked to the third trait—our unusual throats and the uniquely shaped pharynx inside, which enables us to make more precise sounds than any animal. Standing up straightened and elongated our throats so that our voice box dropped. In time that made speech possible, but we also needed a brain that could generate the complex mental constructions that language and speech demand. Because toolmaking required a brain that could manipulate objects, it supplied the neural foundations for logic, syntax, and grammar so that eventually it could not only take objects and arrange them in an orderly manner, it also could conceive ideas for our pharynx to transform into the sound symbols we call words and organize them so they made sense as well."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "Scientists also keep nibbling away at the mysterious edges of paleoanthropology, psychology, physiology, sociology, and computer science, to mention only a handful, shedding light bit by bit on the special brand of behaviors we call human. In other words, we remain largely unknown to ourselves, but we are making impressive progress."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "The other field is brain research. Being a human being (as opposed to a wasp or a fruit fly), all of your behaviors and actions are not dictated by your genes alone. Your brain holds many of the secrets that make humans human. Genes may be outrageously complicated, but the human brain makes our genetic code look like the crayon drawings of a four-year-old. Though it weighs a mere three pounds, it consists of a hundred billion neurons, each of which is connected in a thousand different ways to the other neurons around it. This means that every waking moment your brain is linked along a hundred trillion separate paths, trafficking in thought and insight, processing great streams of sensory input, running the complex plumbing of your body, generating (but not always resolving) all of your colliding and conflicting emotions, conscious and unconscious. These connections, by one estimate, make your possible states of mind during the course of your life greater than all of the electrons and protons in the universe. Given the immensity of this number, you are never likely to think all of the thoughts you are actually capable of thinking, nor feel every possible feeling. Nevertheless, each shining day we give it a try."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "During the past decade enormous strides have been made in two broad scientific fields: genetics and neurobiology. Advances in genetics are helping us gain insights into the way all living things evolve and develop. Each of us has come to exist in the unique form we do because of the combinations of genes that our parents passed along. You are, to a large degree, the person you are because of the messages these genes sent, and continue to send, to the ten thousand trillion cells that have assembled just so to form you. Hardly a day goes by without some news about a remarkable discovery that further illuminates the molecular machinery of the DNA that makes life possible."

Why Language Is All Thumbs

Why Language Is All Thumbs: "Human beings are insatiably curious, especially when it comes to the subject of ourselves. This is not a new insight. Philosophers, poets, theologians, and scientists from Plato to Darwin, St. Augustine to Freud have already penned volumes about our humanness that bow endless rows of the sturdiest library shelves. You might ask, if these thinkers have fallen gasping to the mat trying to wrestle these questions into submission, why this book should have any better luck. The simple answer is that today we have far more solid information to work with."

Why Dont We Invent It Tomorrow? - Paper Cuts - Books - New York Times Blog

Why Dont We Invent It Tomorrow? - Paper Cuts - Books - New York Times Blog: "In his new book “Physics of the Impossible,” Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and a cofounder of string field theory, delves deeply into cutting-edge science to tell us what breakthrough innovations we can expect in our own lifetimes — and which our grandchildren’s grandchildren will still be dreaming about."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Andrew M. Odlyzko, a professor at the University of Minnesota, estimates that digital traffic on the global network is growing about 50 percent a year, fueled by the increasing visual richness of online communications and entertainment -- video clips and movies, social networks and multiplayer games"

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 04 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Iraq War Caused Slowdown in the US – (The Australian – February 28, 2008)http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23286149-2703,00.htmlThe Iraq war has cost the US 50-60 times more than the Bush administration predicted and was a central cause of the sub-prime banking crisis threatening the world economy, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. The former World Bank vice-president said the war had, so far, cost the US something like $US3trillion compared with the $US50-$US60-billion predicted in 2003. Professor Stiglitz and another Clinton administration economist, Linda Bilmes, have produced a book, The Three Trillion Dollar War, pulling together their research on the true cost of the war, which does not include the cost to Iraq. One of the greatest discrepancies is that the official figures do not include the long-term healthcare and social benefits for injured servicemen, who are surviving previously fatal attacks because of improved body armor. The ratio of injuries to fatalities in previous wars was 2:1. In this war they admitted to 7:1 but a true number is (something) like 15:1." Some 100,000 servicemen have been diagnosed with serious psychological problems and the soldiers doing the most tours of duty have not yet returned.

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 04 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Map Pinpoints Disease Hotspots – (BBC News – February 20, 2008)http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7252923.stmA detailed map highlighting the world's hotspots for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has been released. It uses data spanning 65 years and shows the majority of these new diseases come from wildlife. The researchers found that 60% of EID events were caused by "non-human animal" sources. They add that 71% of these outbreaks were "caused by pathogens with a wildlife source". "We are crowding wildlife into ever smaller areas, and human population is increasing," explained Dr Marc Levy. "Where those two things meet, that is the recipe for something crossing over."

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 04 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Running the Numbers – (Chris Jordan – 2008)

http://www.chrisjordan.com/current_set2.php
This series of works by artist Chris Jordan looks at contemporary American culture through the austere lens of statistics. Each image portrays a specific quantity of something: fifteen million sheets of office paper (five minutes of paper use); 106,000 aluminum cans (thirty seconds of can consumption) and so on. Statistics can feel abstract and anesthetizing, making it difficult to connect with and make meaning of 3.6 million SUV sales in one year, for example, or 2.3 million Americans in prison, or 410,000 paper cups used every fifteen minutes. In an elegant fashion, this project visually examines these vast and bizarre measures of our society. The underlying desire is to emphasize the role of the individual in a society that is increasingly enormous, incomprehensible, and overwhelming.

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 03 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Global Migration Patterns and Job Creation – (Gallup – October 11, 2007)http://gmj.gallup.com/content/101680/Global-Migration-Patterns-Job-Creation.aspx#1More and more often, global leaders are asking us the same simple, yet colossal, question: "Does anyone know for sure what the world is thinking?" Global leaders are right to wonder. To know what the whole world is thinking -- not just what people in their own countries are thinking -- on almost all issues all the time would certainly make their jobs a lot easier at the very least. To try to answer that question, Gallup has created a new body of behavioral economic data for world leaders that represents the opinion of all 6 billion inhabitants, reported by country and almost all demographics and sociographics imaginable. They call it the World Poll.

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 03 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Embryos Created with DNA from 3 People – (Associated Press – February 5, 2008)http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hdcbUgqqy77XnKFlLA4PsopRH0pwD8UKDBFO0 British scientists say they have created human embryos containing DNA from two women and a man in a procedure that researchers hope might be used one day to produce embryos free of inherited diseases. The process aims to create healthy embryos for couples to avoid passing on genes carrying diseases. The genes being replaced are the mitochondria, a cell's energy source, which are contained outside the nucleus in a normal female egg. Mistakes in the mitochondria's genetic code can result in serious diseases like muscular dystrophy, epilepsy, strokes and mental retardation.

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "In a new book, The Big Switch: Rewiring the World, from Edison to Google, Nicholas Carr argues that we're moving from the era of the personal computer to an age of utility computing--by which he means the expansion of grid computing, the distribution of computing and storage over the Internet, until it accounts for the bulk of what the human race does digitally."

Center for Global Change and Governance - Recent Books and Articles

Center for Global Change and Governance - Recent Books and Articles: "The arena of global politics is a fast-changing and fascinating one, encompassing as it does the accelerating processes of globalisation, the ever-present threat of war, conflict and terrorism and the role of both key individuals and wider alliances of NGOs and protesters in influencing world events."

Division of Global Affairs - Center for Global Change and Governance

Division of Global Affairs - Center for Global Change and Governance: "The Center for Global Change and Governance (CGCG) defines its academic mission in terms of the complex interplay of global change and governance-the large-scale transformations of political, economic, and cultural relations that simultaneously structure, and are structured by, the changing roles of states and non-state actors involved in creating order and disorder. At the core of the CGCG's concerns is the relationship between globalization, the post-cold war realignment of great-power relations, and the growing role in the promotion and attenuation of conflict of international governmental and non-governmental organizations, transnational corporations, and social movements."

Immigration Watchdog » The New World Order Always Knew We Would Resist

Immigration Watchdog » The New World Order Always Knew We Would Resist: "“For some, the disarray of traditional relationships in international affairs indicates a dangerous deterioration of the international order and portends collapse of the system into chaos or anarchy. Others consider the turbulence of the 1990s as part of the process of evolution, an inevitable consequence of the transformation of the international system into a global system. In some respects, both are right. The international order has indeed deteriorated into ‘disorder’ in large measure, but there is growing evidence that a global system is emerging out of this ‘chaos.’”"

The Strategic Trends approach starts by identifying the major trends in each of these
dimensions and analyses ways in which these trends are likely to develop and interact
during the next 30 years, in order to establish a range of Probable Outcomes. Nothing in
the future is guaranteed, of course, and Strategic Trends varies the strength of its
assessments to highlight sets of Alternative Outcomes that, while less probable, are
nonetheless highly plausible, for example:
• By 2010, most people (above 50%) will be living in urban rather than rural
environments. Poor housing, weak infrastructure and social deprivation will
combine with low municipal capacity to create a range of new instability risks in
areas of rapid urbanization, especially in those urban settlements that contain a
high proportion of unplanned and shanty development.
http://www.skilluminati.com/docs/DCDC_Global_Trends_2007-2036.pdf