Jul 30, 2008
Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia
Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia: "According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet.According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet."
Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times
Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times: "Toward a Type 1 civilization
Along with energy policy, political and economic systems must also evolve.
By Michael Shermer
July 22, 2008
Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium."
We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain.
In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.
Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0.
Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1.
Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization.
We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like:
Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.
Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy.
Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor.
Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.
Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.
Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.
Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy.
Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.
Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.
Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.
The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens.
For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward.
Along with energy policy, political and economic systems must also evolve.
By Michael Shermer
July 22, 2008
Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium."
We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain.
In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.
Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0.
Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1.
Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization.
We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like:
Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.
Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy.
Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor.
Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.
Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.
Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.
Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy.
Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.
Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.
Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.
The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens.
For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward.
The bulk of the book is devoted to demonstrating the accuracy of this contention through
three historical examples of states that had become Great Powers by following a sound and
balanced geostrategy, but failed to adjust to the sixteenth century geopolitical shift by becoming
undisciplined, complacent, or fearful. In the case of Venice, the doges initially made good use of
the city’s favorable location between Latin Christendom and the Byzantine Empire to become the
western terminus of Eurasian trade networks and the main supplier of Asian goods to the whole
of Western Europe. By establishing control over a network of bases and harbors in the Adriatic
and the Aegean in the eleventh century, Venice ensured its rise as the premier Great Power in the
Mediterranean.
three historical examples of states that had become Great Powers by following a sound and
balanced geostrategy, but failed to adjust to the sixteenth century geopolitical shift by becoming
undisciplined, complacent, or fearful. In the case of Venice, the doges initially made good use of
the city’s favorable location between Latin Christendom and the Byzantine Empire to become the
western terminus of Eurasian trade networks and the main supplier of Asian goods to the whole
of Western Europe. By establishing control over a network of bases and harbors in the Adriatic
and the Aegean in the eleventh century, Venice ensured its rise as the premier Great Power in the
Mediterranean.
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But no situation can be described as unique, since the words with which we describe it are categories which presume features common to some larger group, hence to some continuing structure that ap pears to be stable. And at the same time no truths hold forever because the world is of course inevitably and eternally changing. We have indeed to work with temporarily useful structures/categories that bear within them the processes by which they get transformed into other structures/categories"
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But, as we have come collectively to know quite clearly in the last few decades, there exists more than one cleavage in any historical system. I therefore began to spend energy trying to analyze which ere the major cleavages in the modern world-system, how they differed the ones from the others, how they related to each other, and how each cleavage limited the effects of each other. I have made an effort to piece apart what I think of as the five major cleavages of our modern world: race, nation, class, ethnicity, and gender"
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "In the course of my quest, I initially thought that the debate was merely about the empirical analysis of contemporary reality, but I soon became aware that it was a question too of the very tools of analysis. The ones I had been taught seemed to me to circumscribe our empirical analyses and distort our in terpretations. Slowly, over some twenty years, my views evolved, until by the 1970s I began to say that I was trying to look at the world from a perspective that I called “world-systems analysis.” This involved two major intellectual decisions. The first was that the choice of the ‘unit of analysis” was crucial. I became increasingly aware that all of modern social science presumes that the state boundaries constitute the boundaries of “societies.” I came to be convinced that this was a very misleading assumption. Instead, I came to argue that the only plausible unit of analysis was a “world-system,” or more generally, an “historical social system.”"
Jul 28, 2008
'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech
'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech: "A new approach to storing electrical energy can store more energy than gasoline in the same volume, and could help extend the range of electric vehicles. But some experts say other approaches are more practical.The biggest technological hurdle facing electric vehicles is their range. Even the best rechargeable batteries cannot match the density of energy stored in a fuel tank.Combining electric power with a combustion engine to make a hybrid electric vehicle sidesteps that problem. But a new take on electrical power storage that is part battery, part chemical fuel cell could ditch gasoline for good.The new design stores energy more densely than petrol, and was conceived by Stuart Licht of the University"
Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred
Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred: "“NATION shall speak peace unto nation.” Eighty years ago, Britain’s state broadcasters adopted that motto to signal their hope that modern communications would establish new bonds of friendship between people divided by culture, political boundaries and distance.
For those who still cling to that ideal, the latest trends on the internet are depressing. Of course, as anyone would expect, governments use their official websites to boast about their achievements and to argue their corner—usually rather clunkily—in disputes about territory, symbols or historical rights and wrongs.
What is much more disturbing is the way in which skilled young surfers—the very people whom the internet might have liberated from the shackles of state-sponsored ideologies—are using the wonders of electronics to stoke hatred between countries, races or religions. Sometimes these cyber-zealots seem to be acting at their governments’ behest—but often they are working on their own,"
For those who still cling to that ideal, the latest trends on the internet are depressing. Of course, as anyone would expect, governments use their official websites to boast about their achievements and to argue their corner—usually rather clunkily—in disputes about territory, symbols or historical rights and wrongs.
What is much more disturbing is the way in which skilled young surfers—the very people whom the internet might have liberated from the shackles of state-sponsored ideologies—are using the wonders of electronics to stoke hatred between countries, races or religions. Sometimes these cyber-zealots seem to be acting at their governments’ behest—but often they are working on their own,"
The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent
The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent: "Consumer trends can simplistically be broken down to three parts; demographics, health and wellness and aspiration. Looking first at demographics we see the re-emergence of a regular theme in my column: urbanisation. Today, 49 per cent of the world's population lives in towns and cities and by 2030 this is forecast to grow to 60 per cent. In addition, the global urban population will grow from 3 billion in 2003 to 5 billion by 2030. These changing demographics will affect the way wages grow and living standards change, providing fantastic opportunities for the likes of convenience stores, branded products, healthcare providers and retailers."
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "Mr. Penn notes that a 2001 bipartisan commission “said that the greatest threat to American national security — behind only terrorist attacks — was the threat of failing to provide sufficient math and science education in America.”"
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "The thesis of Mr. Penn’s book is that “you can’t understand the world anymore only in terms of ‘megatrends,’ or universal experience. In today’s splintered society, if you want to operate successfully, you have to understand the intense identity groups that are growing and moving, fast and furious, in crisscrossing directions.” In the United States, he notes, these society-changing “microtrends” can involve as few as three million people, about 1 percent of the population."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "The book’s underlying philosophy is quite refined. The argument is that societal fragmentation occurs because, in a post-modernist and individualistic world, people are beginning to make personal choices. In the process, many niches are being created, and the world is becoming more complex.
One of the important things that lend credence to the 75 microtrends mentioned is the amount of research Penn has done. He always provides bars and statistics to back up his identification of each mini segment of society. Each essay also starts off with how these small movements first gain their momentum, as well as their effects on society and the world as a whole."
One of the important things that lend credence to the 75 microtrends mentioned is the amount of research Penn has done. He always provides bars and statistics to back up his identification of each mini segment of society. Each essay also starts off with how these small movements first gain their momentum, as well as their effects on society and the world as a whole."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "The book comprises concise essays that are divided into 15 main areas of life: Love, Work, Religion, Health, Family, Politics, Teens, Food and Drink, Lifestyle, Money and Class, Fashion, Technology, Entertainment, Education, and International. Each of these areas has four to five subgroups, for a grand total of 75 essays. To say the least, the book’s scale is large."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "MARK Penn’s Microtrends is intriguing because it seems so counter intuitive. Our instinct tells us that the world is dominated by big trends, but, like Stephen Levitt in Freakonomics, Penn argues that these overspanning trends can sometimes be merely a misguided form of conventional wisdom. He points out that to really understand developments that change the world, we have to look at underlying facts, especially through numbers and statistics.
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."
Jul 14, 2008
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "There are grounds for hope, however. The use of renewable energy is growing, and China's largest car maker plans for half its cars to be hybrids within two years. But the report's authors say that governments are not up to the job: 'Many of the world's decision-making processes are inefficient, slow and ill-informed, especially when given the new demands from increasing complexity [and] globalisation.' They call on world leaders to do more long-term planning, and to join in global approaches to the interlocking crises. 'Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organised crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded.'"
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Yet nuclear power – the solution increasingly favoured by governments, which are planning to add another 350 reactors to the 438 already operating around the world – will not do the job. 'For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants would have to be built, at $5-15bn per plant, over 15 years – and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050.'
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "And this is happening in a world that is already becoming freer and more democratic. Over the past 30 years, the number of free countries has more than doubled from 43 to 90, it reports, while those that are partly free increased from 46 to 60. Just over one-third of humanity still lives in the 43 countries with authoritarian regimes, but half of these people are in China."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Life expectancy and literacy rates are increasing worldwide, while infant mortality and the number of armed conflicts have been falling fast. Per capita income has been growing strongly enough to cut poverty by more than half by 2015 – except, importantly, in Africa.
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "It goes on. 'This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the internet, international trade, language translation and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve [its] prospects. It is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve [them].'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "However, it notes that 'Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges.'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions, says this report published by the Millennium Project, a global participatory futures research think tank affiliated with the World Federation of UN Associations."
Jul 11, 2008
Bloomberg.com: News
Bloomberg.com: News: "Obesity in China Doubled in 11 Years With Rising Prosperity
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
Jul 9, 2008
HealthMap | Global disease alert map
HealthMap | Global disease alert map: "HealthMap
Global disease alert map"
Global disease alert map"
Jul 2, 2008
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "In the history of life on Earth the human species is a very latecomer. But the human impact on the Earth has slowly and then rapidly increased, most of all in the last 250 years, to what has been widely predicted as an unsustainable level in just a few generations hence.
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "Global catastrophes have occurred many times in history, even if we only count disasters causing more than 10 million deaths. A very partial list of examples includes the An Shi Rebellion (756-763), the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), and the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the native American population through smallpox and other diseases following the arrival of European colonizers. Many others could be added to this list."
Dr Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity, has co-edited a book called Global Catastrophic Risks, to be published by OUP in June 2008. The book
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
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