Technology Review: The Rise of Systemic Financial Risk

Technology Review: The Rise of Systemic Financial Risk: "The financial system as a whole is getting more complex. Financial institutions rely on ever more elaborate systems architecture and electronic communications across different counterparties and sectors. The number of parties involved, the nature of transactions, the volume of transactions as the market grows--taken together, the dynamics among these aspects of financial markets imply that the complexity is growing exponentially. No single human can comprehend that complexity. And as the system grows more complex, it is a well-known phenomenon that the probability of some kind of shock spreading through the system increases as well. Systemic shocks become more likely. Today, we are looking at some significant exposure to relatively rare events."

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out | Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria | Newsweek.com

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria Newsweek.com: "These trends represent a large, ongoing shift in the global economic order. Power is moving away from the traditional centers of the global economy—the Western nations—to the emerging markets. To put it more bluntly: the United States is in the beginning of a period of relative decline. It may not be steep or dramatic, but the fact that it's happening is clear. Even if one assumes a slowdown, the other big economies will still grow at two and three times the pace of the West. Over time they will take up a larger share of the global economy—and the United States and Western Europe will have thinner slices. This is not defeatism, it's math."

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out | Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria | Newsweek.com

Zakaria: The World Bails Us Out Newsweek Voices - Fareed Zakaria Newsweek.com: "The United States is in the beginning of a period of relative decline. This is not defeatism, it's math."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "With the end of the oil era approaching, and climate change progressing faster than most models have been predicting, the utilisation of space is essential not only for communications but also for the logistics of survival through things such as weather satellites, agricultural monitoring, GPS and climate science,'"

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic's supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic's supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state's water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state's water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers. Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. Scenarios for what a war with China or Russia would look like make the clashes and wars in which the United States is now involved seem insignificant. The power of radical jihadists is trivial compared with Soviet missile capabilities, for instance. The focus of U.S. foreign policy should thus be on preventing an engagement among Great Powers."

Stand by for our diplomatic surge David Miliband - Times Online: "Third, we need to recognise that the balance of power in the world order is tilting east, with the emergence of India and China as world economies. That does not mean America’s position as the world’s superpower is under threat. It does mean these countries have a key role in their regions and globally."

Top 10 Scientific Discoveries - 50 Top 10 Lists of 2007 - TIME

Top 10 Scientific Discoveries - 50 Top 10 Lists of 2007 - TIME: "Early this year, an international team of scientists announced that analysis of a skull discovered in South Africa in 1952 revealed the first fossil evidence that modern humans left Africa between 65,000 and 25,000 years ago. Scientists determined the age of the skull, unearthed near Hofmeyr, South Africa, by testing the levels of radiation in sand that had filled the braincase. They figured it was about 36,000 years old — give or take 3,000 years — and matched skulls found in Europe, eastern Asia and Australia, in age and appearance, which supports the theory that modern man originated in sub-Saharan Africa and fanned out from there."

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "But the history of humanity is beginning to be read out from our genes, thanks to a detailed knowledge of the thousands of them that have evolved recently. 'We're going to be classifying these by functional categories and looking for matches between genetic changes and historic and archaeological changes in diet, skeletal form, disease and many other things,' Hawks says. 'We think we will be able to find some of the genetic changes that drove human population growth and migrations—the broad causes of human history.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Not all populations show the same evolutionary speed. For example, Africans show a slightly lower mutation rate. 'Africans haven't had to adapt to a fundamentally new climate,' because modern humanity evolved where they live, Cochran says. 'Europeans and East Asians, living in environments very different from those of their African ancestors and early adopters of agriculture, were more maladapted, less fitted to their environments.'Not all populations show the same evolutionary speed. For example, Africans show a slightly lower mutation rate. 'Africans haven't had to adapt to a fundamentally new climate,' because modern humanity evolved where they live, Cochran says. 'Europeans and East Asians, living in environments very different from those of their African ancestors and early adopters of agriculture, were more maladapted, less fitted to their environments.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "'Ten thousand years ago, no one on planet Earth had blue eyes,' Hawks notes, because that gene—OCA2—had not yet developed. 'We are different from people who lived only 400 generations ago in ways that are very obvious; that you can see with your eyes.'
Comparing the amount of genetic differentiation between humans and our closest relatives, chimpanzees, suggests that the pace of change has accelerated to 10 to 100 times the average long-term rate, the researchers write in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.'Ten thousand years ago, no one on planet Earth had blue eyes,' Hawks notes, because that gene—OCA2—had not yet developed. 'We are different from people who lived only 400 generations ago in ways that are very obvious; that you can see with your eyes.'
Comparing the amount of genetic differentiation between humans and our closest relatives, chimpanzees, suggests that the pace of change has accelerated to 10 to 100 times the average long-term rate, the researchers write in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA."

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Roughly 10,000 years ago, humanity made the transition from living off the land to actively raising crops and domesticated animals. Because this concentrated populations, diseases such as malaria, smallpox and tuberculosis, among others, became more virulent. At the same time, the new agriculturally based diet offered its own challenges—including iron deficiency from lack of meat, cavities and, ultimately, shorter stature due to poor nutrition, says anthropologist John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, another team member.
'Their bodies and teeth shrank. Their brains shrank, too,' he adds. 'But they started to get new alleles [alternative gene forms] that helped them digest the food more efficiently. New protective alleles allowed a fraction of people to survive the dread illnesses better.'Roughly 10,000 years ago, humanity made the transition from living off the land to actively raising crops and domesticated animals. Because this concentrated populations, diseases such as malaria, smallpox and tuberculosis, among others, became more virulent. At the same time, the new agriculturally based diet offered its own challenges—including iron deficiency from lack of meat, cavities and, ultimately, shorter stature due to poor nutrition, says anthropologist John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, another team member.
'Their bodies and teeth shrank. Their brains shrank, too,' he adds. 'But they started to get new alleles [alternative gene forms] that helped them digest the food more efficiently. New protective alleles allowed a fraction of people to survive the dread illnesses better.'"

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American

Culture Speeds Up Human Evolution: Scientific American: "Homo sapiens sapiens has spread across the globe and increased vastly in numbers over the past 50,000 years or so—from an estimated five million in 9000 B.C. to roughly 6.5 billion today. More people means more opportunity for mutations to creep into the basic human genome and new research confirms that in the past 10,000 years a host of changes to everything from digestion to bones has been taking place.
'We found very many human genes undergoing selection,' says anthropologist Gregory Cochran of the University of Utah, a member of the team that analyzed the 3.9 million DNA sequences* showing the most variation. 'Most are very recent, so much so that the rate of human evolution over the past few thousand years is far greater than it has been over the past few million years.'Homo sapiens sapiens has spread across the globe and increased vastly in numbers over the past 50,000 years or so—from an estimated five million in 9000 B.C. to roughly 6.5 billion today. More people means more opportunity for mutations to creep into the basic human genome and new research confirms that in the past 10,000 years a host of changes to everything from digestion to bones has been taking place.
'We found very many human genes undergoing selection,' says anthropologist Gregory Cochran of the University of Utah, a member of the team that analyzed the 3.9 million DNA sequences* showing the most variation. 'Most are very recent, so much so that the rate of human evolution over the past few thousand years is far greater than it has been over the past few million years.'"