Oct 1, 2008

A disruptive technology is defined "as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable -- even if temporary -- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of U.S. national power," the report said. Those elements are geopolitical, military, economic or social cohesion. It identified six technologies that have that potential.

Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.

Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.

Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.

Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.

Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.

The U.S. population will get older, but not to the extent of Western Europe, Japan and China, where the the ratio of young productive people to seniors will begin to approach 1-3. "That is a pretty heavy burden on economic growth," Fingar said.

The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.

Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.

"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.
The "overwhelming dominance that the United States has enjoyed in the international system in military, political, economic and arguably cultural arenas is eroding and will erode at an accelerating pace, with the partial exception of military,"