Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise: "The question is how wide a range of human activities can be modeled this way. While the algorithms used in SmartPhlow are, of necessity, domain specific, Horvit­z is convinced that the overall approach could be generalized to many other areas. He has already talked with political scientists about using surprise modeling to predict, say, un­expected conflicts. He is also optimistic that it could predict, for example, when an expert would be surprised by changes in housing prices in certain markets, in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or in the exchange rate of a currency. It could even predict business trends. 'Over the past few decades, companies have died because they didn't foresee the rise of technologies that would lead to a major shift in the competitive landscape,' he says.
Most such applications are a long way off, Horvitz concedes. 'This is a longer-term vision. But it's very important, because it's at the foundation of what we call wisdom: understanding what we don't know.'"

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise

Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise: "Much of modern life depends on forecasts: where the next hurricane will make landfall, how the stock market will react to falling home prices, who will win the next primary. While existing computer models predict many things fairly accurately, surprises still crop up, and we probably can't eliminate them. But Eric Horvitz, head of the Adaptive Systems and Interaction group at Microsoft Research, thinks we can at least minimize them, using a technique he calls 'surprise modeling.'
Horvitz stresses that surprise modeling is not about building a technological crystal ball to predict what the stock market will do tomorrow, or what al-Qaeda might do next month. But, he says, 'We think we can apply these methodologies to look at the kinds of things that have surprised us in the past and then model the kinds of things that may surprise us in the future.' The result could be enormously useful for decision makers in fields that range from health care to military strategy, politics to financial markets"

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Futurist Peter von Stackelberg of research and consulting firm Social Technologies has released a report on the future of on providing clean water to the world.

Less than 2% of the planet's water store is fresh, and much of that is threatened by pollution, he says. 'By 2025, about 3.4 billion people will live in regions that are defined by the UN as water-scarce.'

He suggests ideas for technological advances in three major areas that will be critical for the hydrological future: desalination of seawater or brackish groundwater, purification of water containing chemical or biological contaminants, and conservation to cut demand."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "New York Times, Feb. 26, 2008

Scientists are building a Web site called the Encyclopedia of Life, dedicated to documenting all species on Earth.

Spearheaded by Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson with $50 million initial funding, the first 30,000 pages will be introduced on Thursday this week. Within a decade, they predict, they will have the other 1.77 million."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Science Daily, Feb. 26, 2008

University of Sheffield Professor Noel Sharkey is concerned that we are beginning to see the first steps towards an international robot arms race.

He warns that it may not be long before robots become a standard terrorist weapon to replace the suicide bomber."

How can future engineers make the world a better place? The U.S.National Academies have issued a set of twenty-first-century challengesdesigned to inspire engineering students toward creative problemsolving and "game changing" projects that could dramatically improvelife. Among the Grand Challenges are:
* Make solar energy affordable.* Provide access to clean water.* Restore and improve urban infrastructure.* Engineer better medicines.* Reverse-engineer the brain.* Prevent nuclear terror.* Secure cyberspace.* Advance personalized learning.
"Tremendous advances in quality of life have come from improvedtechnology in such areas as farming and manufacturing," says Googleco-founder Larry Page, a member of the Challenges committee. "If wefocus our effort on the important grand challenges of our age, we canhugely improve the future."
SOURCE: National Academy of Engineering, National Academies:http://national-academies.org or http://www.engineeringchallenges.org

INFERTILITY MAY BECOME COMMON
Future generations already have a problem: There may be fewer of them,as infertility becomes common, according to recent research publishedin the BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL.
In affluent countries, infertility affects approximately 15% of couplestrying to conceive; up to 6% of children are conceived through assistedreproductive technologies in some countries.
SOURCE: BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL (16 February 2008), http://www.bmj.com

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 02 - yves.conta@gmail.com

Ethanol for $1 a Gallon without Corn – (Wired – January 24, 2008)http://www.wired.com/cars/energy/news/2008/01/ethanol23A biofuel startup in Illinois can make ethanol from just about anything organic for less than $1 per gallon, and it wouldn't interfere with food supplies, company officials said. Coskata, which is backed by General Motors and other investors, uses bacteria to convert almost any organic material, from corn husks (but not the corn itself) to municipal trash, into ethanol. "It's not five years away, it's not 10 years away. It's affordable, and it's now," said Wes Bolsen, the company's vice president of business development.

Gmail - Volume 11, Number 02 - yves.conta@gmail.com

The Lowdown on Topsoil: It's Disappearing – (Seattle Post Intelligencer – January 22, 2008)http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/348200_dirt22.htmlThe planet is getting skinned. While many worry about the potential consequences of atmospheric warming, a few experts are trying to call attention to another global crisis quietly taking place under our feet. On average, the planet is covered with little more than 3 feet of topsoil - the shallow skin of nutrient-rich matter that sustains most of our food and plays a critical role in supporting life on Earth. However, the estimate is that we are now losing about 1% of our topsoil every year to erosion, most of this caused by agriculture.

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "But it’s also about asking the question, what is an economy is really for? Not only can the global economy not keep growing forever, growth isn’t even working for many of us in wealthy nations anymore: U.S. per-capita income has tripled since 1950, for instance, but the share of Americans who say they’re very happy has dropped over the last 30 years.But it’s also about asking the question, what is an economy is really for? Not only can the global economy not keep growing forever, growth isn’t even working for many of us in wealthy nations anymore: U.S. per-capita income has tripled since 1950, for instance, but the share of Americans who say they’re very happy has dropped over the last 30 years."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "Waste minimization is another way to reduce scale. Every year we dig up and process more than half a trillion tons of raw materials—and six months later more than 99 percent of it is waste. That can be fixed too: Ray Anderson’s Interface carpet company is a leader in this area, reducing manufacturing waste by 70 percent since the mid-1990s and saving over $300 million while doing it. Waste minimization is another way to reduce scale. Every year we dig up and process more than half a trillion tons of raw materials—and six months later more than 99 percent of it is waste. That can be fixed too: Ray Anderson’s Interface carpet company is a leader in this area, reducing manufacturing waste by 70 percent since the mid-1990s and saving over $300 million while doing it."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "We’ve gotten really good at economic growth. Since Adam Smith’s time, the number of people in the world has exploded from about 1 billion to nearly 7 billion. And in the last 200 years, Gross World Product has risen by nearly a factor of 60. The ecosystem has suffered as a result, hence the headlines we see every day: climate change, species extinctions, dwindling rainforests, water shortages, and all the rest. We’ve gotten really good at economic growth. Since Adam Smith’s time, the number of people in the world has exploded from about 1 billion to nearly 7 billion. And in the last 200 years, Gross World Product has risen by nearly a factor of 60. The ecosystem has suffered as a result, hence the headlines we see every day: climate change, species extinctions, dwindling rainforests, water shortages, and all the rest."

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head | Worldwatch Institute

“Green Economics”: Turning Mainstream Thinking on Its Head Worldwatch Institute: "How big is the global economy relative to the global ecosystem? This is crucial, because the economy resides totally inside the global ecosystem—the ecosystem gives the economy a place to operate, supplies all of its raw materials, and supports it with many critical services. In physical terms, economic activity is basically converting bits and pieces of the ecosystem to human uses: trees and forests into lumber and houses, grasslands and other habitats into farms to feed the billions of humans, and so on. How big is the global economy relative to the global ecosystem? This is crucial, because the economy resides totally inside the global ecosystem—the ecosystem gives the economy a place to operate, supplies all of its raw materials, and supports it with many critical services. In physical terms, economic activity is basically converting bits and pieces of the ecosystem to human uses: trees and forests into lumber and houses, grasslands and other habitats into farms to feed the billions of humans, and so on."

NationMaster - GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country

NationMaster - GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country: "Economy Statistics > GDP (purchasing power parity) (per capita) (most recent) by country"

Reading Material — UN University OCW

Reading Material — UN University OCW: "Bijker, W. E. (2006b). Why and How Technology Matters. In Goodin, R. E. & C. Tilly (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis (pp. 681-706). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Available at: http://www.fdcw.unimaas.nl/staff/files/users/148/Bijker%20PoliticsOxfordHndb%202006.pdf"

nsf.gov - SRS US Doctorates in the 20th Century - US National Science Foundation (NSF)

nsf.gov - SRS US Doctorates in the 20th Century - US National Science Foundation (NSF): "The number and kinds of students seeking doctoral degrees during the last 25 years of the 20th century changed dramatically and included more women, minorities, and international students. As knowledge in many fields strained traditional discipline boundaries, new interdisciplinary programs as well as entire new fields developed. The costs associated with graduate education, and the way students paid for their education, became more complex. Career options available to doctoral graduates broadened, and traditional patterns of postgraduate employment changed. These and other changes, shifts, and trends are documented in this publication."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Five advanced technologies available only in Japan include true mobile digital TV (all the regular terrestrial channels at no cost), mobile wallet service (phones have smart cards embedded inside, letting you add applications like electronic money or a credit card), connected cars (with a navigation system connected to a cell phone), primary wave earthquake warning systems, and home-help robots."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The electronic world is replacing the natural world for leisure time in rich nations, University of Illinois at Chicago researchers believe.

Outdoor pursuits, ranging from camping to hunting, have entered a persistent and growing decline since 1987. Their statistical analysis shows that the increase in video games, movie rentals and other electronic entertainment most closely matches the decrease in camping and park visits, as opposed to income, vacation time, park overcrowding, foreign travel or other potential causes."

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View

Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "French and Spanish researchers have found new evidence to support recent evolution in humans: genes for traits such as skin color and stature changed rapidly to allow humans to survive in new habitats.

The team identified 582 genes that have evolved differently in different populations in the past 60,000 years, including a dozen that protect people from obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and other diseases.

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