ZNet |Economy | Factors in Our Colossal Mess: "Given this growing consensus of risks, on November 13 Sir John Gieve, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, concluded, in the Financial Times, that each national state regulating full-blown financial crises was no longer feasible: the financial system is international in scope today and no national mechanism can handle it. There have been at least 13 borderline or full-blown financial crises since the late 1970s and some of the methods for dealing with them would be 'less easy to deploy' under present conditions-which is a polite way of saying they were irrelevant. His conclusion: Regulators 'should practise coping with global crisis,' 'work together' on practical examples to develop machinery, especially to avoid the 'moral hazards' of bailing out firms in trouble, including 'closing down a large firm in an orderly way.'"

Peter Norvig forecasts the future - science-forecasts - 18 November 2006 - New Scientist: "We are in the middle of an expansion of information access, with the internet providing democratic access to billions of pages of text. Most of this is mediated by search engines. The only other comparable expansion started in 1456, with the introduction of the printing press. Fifty years and 15 million books later, the theologian Sebastian Brant wrote 'There is nothing nowadays that our children... fail to know.'

Today, 12 years into the era of search engines, we still have not made good on Brant's boast. Search engines deliver relevance but knowledge requires human work.

In 50 years the scene will be transformed. Instead of typing a few words into a search engine, people will discuss their needs with a digital intermediary, which will offer suggestions and refinements. The result will not be a list of links, but an annotated report (or a simple conversation) that synthesises the important points, with references to the original literature. People won't think of 'search' as a separate category - it will all be part of living."

Daniel Pauly forecasts the future - science-forecasts - 18 November 2006 - New Scientist: "In light of the time span considered here, I think the most important development for the oceans would be a device that could detect, amplify and transmit to us the emotions and fleeting, inarticulate 'thoughts' of animals in such a form as to evoke analogous emotions and thoughts in human brains. This would first work with primates, then mammals in general, then the other vertebrates including fish."

Francis Collins forecasts the future - science-forecasts - 18 November 2006 - New Scientist: "The challenge doesn't stop there. We are already setting our sights on the ultimate nemesis of Generation C: ageing. Genomic research will prove key to discovering how to reprogram the mechanisms that control the balance between the cell growth that causes cancer and the cell death that leads to ageing. It is possible that a half-century from now, the most urgent question facing our society will not be 'How long can humans live?' but 'How long do we want to live?'"

Robert May forecasts the future - 18 November 2006 - New Scientist: "Application of the physical and biological sciences has made today arguably the best of times: we live longer and healthier lives, food production has doubled in the past 35 years and energy subsidies have substituted for human labour, washing away hierarchies of servitude. But the unintended consequences of these well-intentioned actions - climate change, biodiversity loss, inadequate water supplies, and much else - could well make tomorrow the worst of times."

Special Report on Brilliant Minds Forecast the Next 50 Years - New Scientist: "
What will be the biggest breakthrough of the next 50 years? As part of our 50th anniversary celebrations we asked over 70 of the world's most brilliant scientists for their ideas.
In coming decades will we: discover that we are not alone in the universe? Unravel the physiological basis for consciousness? Routinely have false memories implanted in our minds? Begin to evolve in new directions? And will physicists finally hit upon a universal theory of everything? In fact, if the revelations of the last 50 years are anything to go on - the internet and the human genome for example - we probably have not even thought up the exciting advances that lay ahead of us.
Delve into those visions of the future by author in the story list of this special report, or navigate forecasts by topic here:
Life: Ageing, alien life, consciousness, ecology, embryology, environment, evolution, genetics, health, humans, language, neuroscience, oceans, psychology, sex and social science.
Space and technology: Artificial intelligence, communications, computing, cosmology, space and technology.
Physical sciences: Chemistry, energy, materials, maths and physics."

The Arlington Institute: "We are no more than 20 years away from the introduction of an utterly transformative technology: molecular manufacturing. This is the ability to create just about anything molecule-by-molecule, using millions of tiny nanodevices acting in concert inside of a 'factory' not much bigger than a laser printer. In principle, you'll be able to make a new toothbrush, laptop or even new nanofactory at home just as easily as you now burn a CD."

The Arlington Institute: "# There are more than 4 million closed-circuit television cameras in Britain - about one for every 14 people.
# Average human male testosterone levels have dropped by 1% a year for the past 20 years."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Recent rumors of a Russian-led gas cartel akin to O.P.E.C. and suggestions that it could redirect energy exports to China are driving Europe's fears that Moscow will seize its role as a major energy supplier to take hostile actions against Europe. As Russia possesses over a quarter of the world's gas reserves, and the European Union predicts that it will have to import 70 percent of its energy needs by 2030, Brussels will continue to search for alternatives to Russian energy in the long term while at the same time seek stable trade relations with Moscow.
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WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #6: Ocean Currents May Surpass Wind as an Energy Source. Turbines driven by ocean currents could generate four times more electricity than windmills. At one site alone—in the Channel Islands off the coast of France—the potential electricity could match that produced by three nuclear power plants."

WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #1: Hydrogen fuel cells will be cost competitive by 2010. The cost of power via fuel cell is dropping rapidly—from $600,000 per kilowatt-hour in the 1970s to $1,200 today. By 2012, fuel cell power is expected to cost around $400 per kilowatt-hour. It would then be competitive with every type of power. Fuel cells will power cars and allow each home to have its own non-polluting electricity generator."

UN Pulse | A Service/Blog of the United Nations Library - Connecting to UN Information: "The Report of the High-Level Group of the Alliance of Civilizations has been presented to the Secretary-General today at a meeting in Istanbul. The report concludes that the key reasons for the growing divide between Muslim and Western societies are not religious, but political. Part I of the report presents an analysis of the global context and of the state of relations between Muslim and Western societies; Part II reflects the Group's view that tensions across cultures have spread beyond the political level into the hearts and minds of populations."

Jamaica Gleaner News - Global trends in missions - Saturday | November 11, 2006: "For centuries European Christians were in the forefront of sending missionaries to serve in non-Western nations. But within the last 100 years, the centre of gravity of Christianity has shifted to the Southern hemisphere.
European Christianity is today a shadow of itself. Some even describe Europe as post-Christian and even anti-Christian. The new centre of gravity for Christianity includes Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific nations...
Evangelical Christianity, he said, is the fastest growing religious movement in the world at this time. 'We are growing at more than double the closest religion and more than triple of the world's population growth rate,' he told the audience."

Augean Stables » Media War of Attrition: Inbar on Implications of Walt-Mearsheimer: "Jerusalem needs clarity of purpose and a sophisticated strategy, as well as determination and resources, to help the enlightened world appreciate that we are fighting the bad guys."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "New pledges of aid, tariff reductions, incentives for investment, and programs to strengthen cultural ties are expected to come out of the summit. China will specifically be looking to gain access to natural resources needed to maintain its nine percent economic growth rate. By investing in Africa's infrastructure, Beijing also hopes to secure access to developing markets in Africa for its goods. Two-way trade increased by more than 30 percent in 2005, and it is expected to rise a further 25 percent this year. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "China famously claims, 'Business is business. We try to separate politics from business.' However, after analyzing China's record in Africa, it becomes clear that there is a strategic logic behind China's lending practices. While China is primarily interested in securing natural resources, it also promotes a particular ideology: development before democracy. Beijing is keen to export this model on which it has built its power, and many countries shunned by the West are attracted to this thinking."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "China is also interested in securing other resources from Africa, and is using similar methods to secure iron, uranium, copper, as well as agricultural products. Beijing has remained President Robert Mugabe's main lifeline in Zimbabwe, even as the West has isolated his government for defaulting on loans and continued human rights concerns. China's ambassador to Namibia recently announced Beijing's intention to import uranium from the country.

China's focus on securing Africa's natural resources has drawn concern from some African leaders and from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. By focusing on exporting natural resources, African states are missing out on opportunities to diversify their exports. China has made some steps toward addressing these concerns (for example, it is helping Nigeria to launch a satellite)"

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "As China moves to secure more energy resources for its expanding economy, it has found difficulties in establishing markets where it must compete directly with the large, Western multinational corporations. For this reason, it has been more willing to invest in less competitive areas -- often in countries where sanctions prevent Western companies from investing. In this sense, Africa is ripe with opportunity. "

The Arlington Institute: "A Dangerous Step toward Space Warfare -- (MIT Technology Review -- October 27, 2006)
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17668&ch=infotech
The release of the U.S. National Space Policy has worried many experts, who say the policy marks a strategic shift toward a more military-oriented, unilateral approach to space for the United States. They fear that the policy, if followed, could begin an arms race leading to catastrophic space warfare."

HEALTHmap | Global disease alert mapping system: "Global disease alert mapping system"