Futurist pinpoints world's top ten long-term challenges | Emerging Technology Trends
| ZDNet.com: "Below are the top challenges Schwartz outlined, as distilled by The World Future Society, a nonprofit nonpartisan scientific and educational association that publishes The Futurist.
1. Creating long-term solutions to meet our energy demands sustainably.
2. Launching a bio-industrial revolution with sustainable manufacturing.
3. Understanding and enhancing the human brain to avert age-related impairments.
4. Improving agriculture to reduce costs and increase its energy and water efficiency.
5. Building sustainable cities through better urban planning and “smart architecture.”
6. Stimulating job growth and economic development.
7. Fusing the technological with the spiritual and aesthetic dimensions of human culture.
8. Advancing technological instruments to drive scientific discovery forward.
9. Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution.
10. Discovering new ways to lower the costs and environmental impact of space flight and development."
Jun 26, 2009
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Document: "9.7 Human activities significantly alter the biosphere. Earth is experiencing a worldwide decline in biodiversity—a modern mass extinction—due to loss of habitat area and high rates of environmental change caused by human activities. The rates of extinctions are now comparable to the rates of mass extinctions in the geologic past."
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Document: "9.5 Human activities alter the natural land surface. Humans use more than one-third of the land’s surface not covered with ice to raise or grow their food. Large areas of land, including delicate ecosystems such as wetlands, are transformed by human land development. These land surface changes impact many Earth processes such as groundwater replenishment and weather patterns.
9.6 Human activities accelerate land erosion. At present, the rate of global land erosion caused by human activities exceeds all natural processes by a factor of ten. These activities include urban paving, removal of vegetation, surface mining, stream diversions, and increased rain acidity."
9.6 Human activities accelerate land erosion. At present, the rate of global land erosion caused by human activities exceeds all natural processes by a factor of ten. These activities include urban paving, removal of vegetation, surface mining, stream diversions, and increased rain acidity."
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Document: "9.3 Humans cause global climate change through fossil fuel combustion, land-use changes, agricultural practices, and industrial processes. Consequences of global climate change include melting glaciers and permafrost, rising sea levels, shifting precipitation patterns, increased forest fires, more extreme weather, and the disruption of global ecosystems.
9.4 Humans affect the quality, availability, and distribution of Earth’s water through the modification of streams, lakes, and groundwater. Engineered structures such as canals, dams, and levees significantly alter water and sediment distribution. Pollution from sewage runoff, agricultural practices, and industrial processes reduce water quality. Overuse of water for electric power generation and agriculture reduces water availability for drinking."
9.4 Humans affect the quality, availability, and distribution of Earth’s water through the modification of streams, lakes, and groundwater. Engineered structures such as canals, dams, and levees significantly alter water and sediment distribution. Pollution from sewage runoff, agricultural practices, and industrial processes reduce water quality. Overuse of water for electric power generation and agriculture reduces water availability for drinking."
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Document: "Human activities significantly change the rates of many of Earth’s surface processes. Humankind has become a geological agent that must be taken into account equally with natural processes in any attempt to understand the workings of Earth’s systems. As human populations and per capita consumption of natural resources increase, so do our impacts on Earth’s systems."
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Document: "Earth scientists help society move toward greater sustainability. Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal, are being developed. They will replace fossil fuels as those become scarcer, more expensive to retrieve from Earth, and undesirable due to environmental damage. Earth scientists foster global cooperation and science-informed stewardship that can help to ensure the availability of resources for future generations."
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Document: "Geology affects the distribution and development of human populations. Human populations have historically concentrated at sites that are geologically advantageous to commerce, food production, and other aspects of civilization.
7.3 Natural resources are limited. Earth’s natural resources provide the foundation for all of human society’s physical needs. Most are nonrenewable on human time scales, and many will run critically low in the near future."
7.3 Natural resources are limited. Earth’s natural resources provide the foundation for all of human society’s physical needs. Most are nonrenewable on human time scales, and many will run critically low in the near future."
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Document: "Mass extinctions occur when global conditions change faster than species in large numbers can adapt. Mass extinctions are often followed by the origination of many new species over millions of years as surviving species evolve and fill vacated niches.
6.7 The particular life forms that exist today, including humans, are a unique result of the history of Earth’s systems. Had this history been even slightly different, modern life forms might be entirely different and humans might never have evolved."
6.7 The particular life forms that exist today, including humans, are a unique result of the history of Earth’s systems. Had this history been even slightly different, modern life forms might be entirely different and humans might never have evolved."
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Document: "More complex life forms and ecosystems have arisen over the course of Earth’s history. This complexity has emerged in association with adaptations to new and constantly changing habitats. But not all evolution causes greater complexity; organisms adapting to changing local environments may also become simpler.
6.5 Microorganisms dominated Earth’s early biosphere and continue today to be the most widespread, abundant, and diverse group of organisms on the planet. Microbes change the chemistry of Earth’s surface and play a critical role in nutrient cycling within most ecosystems."
6.5 Microorganisms dominated Earth’s early biosphere and continue today to be the most widespread, abundant, and diverse group of organisms on the planet. Microbes change the chemistry of Earth’s surface and play a critical role in nutrient cycling within most ecosystems."
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Document: "Evolution, including the origination and extinction of species, is a natural and ongoing process. Changes to Earth and its ecosystems determine which individuals, populations, and species survive. As an outcome of dynamic Earth processes, life has adapted through evolution to new, diverse, and ever-changing niches."
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Document: "5.8 Fresh water is less than 3% of the water at Earth’s surface. Most of this fresh water is stored as glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. Less than 1% of Earth’s near-surface water is drinkable liquid fresh water, and about 99% of this water is in the form of groundwater in the pores and fractures within soil, sediment, and rock."
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Document: "5.2 Water is essential for life on Earth. Earth is unique in our Solar System in that water has coexisted at Earth’s surface in three phases (solid, liquid, and gas) for billions of years, allowing the development and continuous evolution of life.
5.3 Water’s unique combination of physical and chemical properties are essential to the dynamics of all of Earth’s systems. These properties include the manner in which water absorbs and releases heat, reflects sunlight, expands upon freezing, and dissolves other materials."
5.3 Water’s unique combination of physical and chemical properties are essential to the dynamics of all of Earth’s systems. These properties include the manner in which water absorbs and releases heat, reflects sunlight, expands upon freezing, and dissolves other materials."
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Document: "3.7 Changes in part of one system can cause new changes to that system or to other systems, often in surprising and complex ways. These new changes may take the form of “feedbacks” that can increase or decrease the original changes and can be unpredictable and/or irreversible. A deep knowledge of how most feedbacks work within and between Earth’s systems is still lacking.
3.8 Earth’s climate is an example of how complex interactions among systems can result in relatively sudden and significant changes. The geologic record shows that interactions among tectonic events, solar inputs, planetary orbits, ocean circulation, volcanic activity, glaciers, vegetation, and human activities can cause appreciable, and in some cases rapid, changes to global and regional patterns of temperature and precipitation."
3.8 Earth’s climate is an example of how complex interactions among systems can result in relatively sudden and significant changes. The geologic record shows that interactions among tectonic events, solar inputs, planetary orbits, ocean circulation, volcanic activity, glaciers, vegetation, and human activities can cause appreciable, and in some cases rapid, changes to global and regional patterns of temperature and precipitation."
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Document: "3.5 Regions where organisms actively interact with each other and their environment are called ecosystems. Ecosystems provide the goods (food, fuel, oxygen, and nutrients) and services (climate regulation, water cycling and purification, and soil development and maintenance) necessary to sustain the biosphere. Ecosystems are considered the planet’s essential life-support units.
3.6 Earth’s systems are dynamic; they continually react to changing influences. Components of Earth’s systems may appear stable, change slowly over long periods of time, or change abruptly with significant consequences for living organisms."
3.6 Earth’s systems are dynamic; they continually react to changing influences. Components of Earth’s systems may appear stable, change slowly over long periods of time, or change abruptly with significant consequences for living organisms."
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Document: "Big Idea 3. Earth is a complex system of interacting rock, water, air, and life.
3.1 The four major systems of Earth are the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes a metallic core, solid and molten rock, soil, and sediments. The atmosphere is the envelope of gas surrounding Earth. The hydrosphere includes the ice, water vapor, and liquid water in the atmosphere, the ocean, lakes, streams, soils, and groundwater. The biosphere includes Earth’s life, which can be found in many parts of the geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Humans are part of the biosphere, and human activities have important impacts on all four spheres.
3.2 All Earth processes are the result of energy flowing and mass cycling within and between Earth’s systems. This energy is derived from the sun and Earth’s interior. The flowing energy and cycling matter cause chemical and physical changes in Earth’s materials and living organisms. For example, large amounts of carbon continually cycle among systems of rock, water, air, organisms, and fossil fuels such as coal and oil."
3.1 The four major systems of Earth are the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes a metallic core, solid and molten rock, soil, and sediments. The atmosphere is the envelope of gas surrounding Earth. The hydrosphere includes the ice, water vapor, and liquid water in the atmosphere, the ocean, lakes, streams, soils, and groundwater. The biosphere includes Earth’s life, which can be found in many parts of the geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Humans are part of the biosphere, and human activities have important impacts on all four spheres.
3.2 All Earth processes are the result of energy flowing and mass cycling within and between Earth’s systems. This energy is derived from the sun and Earth’s interior. The flowing energy and cycling matter cause chemical and physical changes in Earth’s materials and living organisms. For example, large amounts of carbon continually cycle among systems of rock, water, air, organisms, and fossil fuels such as coal and oil."
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Document: "Life on Earth began more than 3.5 billion years ago. Fossils indicate that life began with single-celled organisms, which were the only life forms for billions of years. Humans (Homo sapiens) have existed for only a very small fraction (about 0.004%) of Earth’s history.
2.7 Over Earth’s vast history, both gradual and catastrophic processes have produced enormous changes. Super-continents formed and broke apart, the compositions of the atmosphere and ocean changed, sea level rose and fell, living species evolved and went extinct, ice sheets advanced and melted away, meteorites slammed into Earth, and mountains formed and eroded away."
2.7 Over Earth’s vast history, both gradual and catastrophic processes have produced enormous changes. Super-continents formed and broke apart, the compositions of the atmosphere and ocean changed, sea level rose and fell, living species evolved and went extinct, ice sheets advanced and melted away, meteorites slammed into Earth, and mountains formed and eroded away."
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Document: "2.3 Earth formed from the accumulation of dust and gas, and multiple collisions of smaller planetary bodies. Driven by gravity, Earth’s metallic core formed as iron sank to the center. Rock surrounding the core was mostly molten early in Earth’s history, and slowly cooled to form Earth’s mantle and crust. The atoms of different elements combined to make minerals, which combined to make rocks. Earth’s ocean and atmosphere began to form more than 4 billion years ago from the rise of lighter materials out of the mantle.
2.4 Earth’s crust has two distinct types: continental and oceanic. Continental crust persists at Earth’s surface and can be billions of years old. Oceanic crust continuously forms and recycles back into the mantle; in the ocean, it is nowhere older than about 200 million years."
2.4 Earth’s crust has two distinct types: continental and oceanic. Continental crust persists at Earth’s surface and can be billions of years old. Oceanic crust continuously forms and recycles back into the mantle; in the ocean, it is nowhere older than about 200 million years."
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Document: "Our Solar System formed from a vast cloud of gas and dust 4.6 billion years ago. Some of this gas and dust was the remains of the supernova explosion of a previous star; our bodies are therefore made of “stardust.” This age of 4.6 billion years is well established from the decay rates of radioactive elements found in meteorites and rocks from the Moon."
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Document: "Earth’s rocks and other materials provide a record of its history. Earth scientists use the structure, sequence, and properties of rocks, sediments, and fossils to reconstruct events in Earth’s history. Decay rates of radioactive elements are the primary means of obtaining numerical ages of rocks and organic remains. Understanding geologic processes active in the modern world is crucial to interpreting Earth’s past."
Futurum - Abstract Database of Futures Studies
Futurum - Abstract Database of Futures Studies: "Futurum is the first and only abstract database in the field of foresight and futures studies. Futurum makes latest research results and methodological development, published in leading journals of futures studies, easily accessible. The database does not contain full text articles, but the user gets full availability information of all the journals in the database."
Jun 1, 2009
Quick guide to the Motion Chart Gadget - Gapminder.org
Quick guide to the Motion Chart Gadget - Gapminder.org: "QUICK GUIDE TO THE MOTION CHART GADGET
Motion Chart is a free gadget in Google Spreadsheet (an online spreadsheet similar to excel). In motion chart you can convert your data-series into a Gapminder-like graph and put it on your web-page or blog. All you need is a free Google-account.
Motion Chart is a free gadget in Google Spreadsheet (an online spreadsheet similar to excel). In motion chart you can convert your data-series into a Gapminder-like graph and put it on your web-page or blog. All you need is a free Google-account.
Futures Research Methodology--V3.0
Futures Research Methodology--V3.0: "Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.
Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.
The CD-ROM contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages.
Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format."
Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.
The CD-ROM contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages.
Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format."
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource, according to the Millennium Project.
Written by leading futurists Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, the 39 chapters include methods such as prediction markets, real-time delphi, robust decisionmaking, structural analysis, state of the future index, wild cards, and normative forecasting. Version 3.0 has added new chapters and updated and improved previous ones.
More info: The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource, according to the Millennium Project.
Written by leading futurists Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, the 39 chapters include methods such as prediction markets, real-time delphi, robust decisionmaking, structural analysis, state of the future index, wild cards, and normative forecasting. Version 3.0 has added new chapters and updated and improved previous ones.
More info: The Millennium Project
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