Self-determination goals Of the 161 groups that had self-determination goals in 1998-2000, only one-quarter (41) were engaged in armed conflicts in 1998-2000, usually in the form of guerrilla wars like those being fought by Chechens in Russia, Tamils in Sri Lanka, and southerners in Sudan.

Self-determination We also have documented another seventy-six territorially concentrated groups that currently support significant movements seeking greater self-determination by political means.

Self-determination conflicts Twenty-two armed self-determination conflicts are ongoing as of the beginning of 2003.

Independence Seventy territorially concentrated ethnic groups have waged armed conflicts for autonomy or independence at some time since the 1950 s not counting the peoples of former European colonies.

Bad neighborhoodsThe idea and evidence for our indicator of “bad neighborhoods” is that a conflict-ridden country exports refugees, armed conflict, and insecurity to surrounding countries.

Polarization of forces The US, as the world’s preeminent power and most prominent promoter of globalization, and as the defender of the status quo, has become a favorite target for the militants. This high profile confrontation has contributed strongly to the polarization of forces and the development of a “siege mentality” in both “camps” as many believe their most personal, core, values to be under assault by the “other.” In many locations around the globe there is evidence of strong and persistent tensions between Muslim and non-Muslim populations, whether in Sudan, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Bosnia, the Caucasus, South Asia, Indonesia, or the Philippines.

The emerging global system remains highly vulnerable to sudden shocks; a seemingly small or isolated crisis in one part of the world could have devastating repercussions that spread quickly and reverberate throughout the system.

Resistance to globalization and US hegemony are emerging threats to peace. The
escalating international campaign of protests against multinational economic institutions is the subject of a special feature of this Report. Al Qaeda exemplifies opposition to American hegemony in its most violent and uncompromising form.

Survival of new democracies Armed conflict and lack of development both are inimical to the survival of new democracies. By comparison with their historical predecessors, many “third wave democracies” of the last few decades should have died in infancy. Their survival depends on international support and if that support is diverted, the risks are high that a number of new democracies will falter in the next few years.

Global magnitude of armed conflict Progress and resistance have always been part and parcel of world politics. Whether the global trends toward greater peace and democracy continue or reverse depends on decisions by international policy makers that determine whether and how specific challenges are met. A number of very positive trends have continued during the last two years, as this report documents...The decline in the global magnitude of armed conflict has continued..

La marchandise: La marchandise a pris le pas sur l'esprit. Plus ça va et plus l'homme est plus petit que lui-même, comme l'écrivait Günther Anders. Tout notre mode de pensée s'est mis à tourner autour de la marchandise. Ce qui n'est pas très excitant, sauf bien sûr pour les marchands…

Collaborative learning networks For climate change and biodiversity loss, with planning horizons of 10–20 years, we need to develop collaborative learning networks enabling governments, multilaterals, NGOs, and private firms to develop common views of critical problems, and coordinated approaches to address them.

Global legitimacy What we do not have is a world executive committee that has global legitimacy, representing the interests of the vast majority, dealing with longer term strategic issues. Such a world body would have three main tasks: to think seriously about these internationally issues, to monitor what happens, and to crack the whip when progress is not forthcoming and selfish national or parochial interests threaten to delay progress for the common good.

World community Will we let this window of opportunity close without any real attempt to move toward more effective global governance? Taking those steps will require political commitment by world leaders—the G-8, of course, but increasingly the G-20 developing nations as well—if we are to create a true “world community.”

Geopolitics is once again beginning to affect aid allocation and delivery, as the global war on terror separates allies from less cooperative countries.

Geopolitical goals The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s
made donors more willing to focus on development goals, not just geopolitical goals, in the developing world.

Moving toward a global community Minimizing these risks requires moving toward a global community, not as people observing each other warily and enviously across borders, but as world “citizens” working together to improve the lot of the entire community. And moving toward a global community requires moving toward true global governance, with world leaders concerned about people everywhere, not just the residents in the wealthiest and most powerful countries. Not doing so is likely to breed insecurity, increasing what the rich, the less rich, and even the poor countries spend each day on defense rather than development and poverty reduction. It is also likely to cause retreats to nationalism or regionalism, when globalism should be the goal.

Environmental problems will become more acute, and the toll from HIV/AIDS will be huge in the medium run, in Africa and in other regions.
On current trends, it is reasonable to fear that aid from developed countries to the rest of the world will fall short of what is needed for rapid economic and social development.

Imbalances Even with progress on some of the global indicators, the imbalances between regions and countries will deepen.

Development assistance Projecting development assistance is risky, because it depends heavily on the geopolitical situation and the domestic political environments in donor and recipient countries.

Civil conflict Without much faster development in the poorest regions, civil conflict is likely to continue to be a major feature of the development landscape over the next quarter-century.

MDG poverty target Despite the global progress, Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to miss the MDG poverty target, Africa by a wide margin.By 2030 Latin America and the Caribbean will barely achieve its 2015 target, and Sub-Saharan Africa will still be off, though closing in.

China’s PPP output would overtake Europe’s around 2015 and the United States’s by 2020.

The world’s population is currently projected to rise from 6.1 billion in 2001 to 7.1 billion in 2015 and 8 billion in 2030—roughly 1 billion people every 15 years. Almost all the increase will be in developing countries, as industrial country growth slows to nearly zero, and almost all will be in cities. As a result, the developing country share in world population will rise from 84.5 percent to 87.4 percent.

Looking Back,Looking Ahead

The marketplace of development ideasThe 1990s saw big changes in the marketplace of development ideas. The lessons of the adjustment programs of the 1980s and the innovations in economic, political, and social theory together pushed development thinking toward a new paradigm characterized by broader and better integrated understanding of development and greater pragmatism about instruments.

PINR - Congo's International Civil War: "Even the possibility of peace until 2005 depends on containment of the ethnic violence in the Ituri and the Kivu provinces. And much of that depends on the good behavior of DRC's neighbors. For now, at least, the main area protagonists -- Rwanda and Uganda -- are in the U.S. camp and can be expected to refrain from further upsetting the balance of power in the region. But for Rwanda, a resolution of its internal racial problems is necessary and would help to ward off the possibility of further eruptions in DRC.

Those who have called for large-scale peacekeeping operations in central Africa are being far-sighted. Peace will not take hold until the root economic problems are addressed. Furthermore, due to DRC having such a large supply of mineral wealth, economic problems will most likely continue due to exploitation by rich Western states and corruption by local and regional figures. "

PINR - Congo's International Civil War: "A much more obscure player in this region, although certainly the most significant, is the United States. The U.S. has been involved in Congo since the time prior to independence from Belgium. The president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, is also heavily influenced by Washington. Rwanda's chief rival, Uganda, is also U.S.-friendly but because of their animus toward Rwanda they seized the opportunity to fight against them, with the added benefit of doing it on DRC's soil.The U.S. also has financial interests in DRC due to the country's huge columbite-tantalite resources, more commonly known as coltan. This product is also of interest to Japan and several European states whose commodities rely heavily on coltan. When this mineral is refined it becomes metallic tantalum, a heat-resistant powder that can hold a high electrical charge, and is used in virtually every computer chip, cell phone, pager, nuclear reactor, and a variety of other products that rely on electrical power. That alone makes DRC an attractive market for outside powers, but it also has huge supplies of gold, diamonds, copper, and tin. "

PINR - An Era of Instability in World Politics: "Bipolarity simplified world politics by organizing a variety of regional conflicts under the main confrontation, limiting the former through checks imposed by the two leading patrons and protectors. After the fall of the Soviet bloc, the conventional wisdom had it that the United States was the sole remaining 'superpower,' bringing the possibility of a unipolar order. "

Why the United States Supports the State of Israel - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Due to the United States being a major oil dependent country, a central goal of its foreign policy aims has consistently been to foster the conditions necessary for a stable oil flow and depressed oil prices. In order to create these conditions, the United States has been involved in the internal affairs of significant states in order to foster a form of government that will work to fulfill these needs; an example of joint U.S.-British maneuvering to produce these conditions was the forced regime change of Iranian leader Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953, shortly after he nationalized Iran's oil industry. "

Why the United States Supports the State of Israel - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "U.S. support of Israel is both historical and consistent. While there are many reasons for that support, it is primarily founded upon U.S. geopolitical interests. The state of Israel is an isolated country heavily dependent on the United States for its survival. This dependence allows Washington to use the country to further its interests in the Middle East -- interests such as preventing any independent Middle Eastern power from becoming a regional hegemon. "

NGO Proposals on Natural Resources and Conflict - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "A World Bank study has shown that access to natural resources is directly linked to the likelihood of eruption and/or escalation of violent armed conflict. Increased mapping of resources in potential conflict countries and/or regions would be key in developing methods of crisis prevention. "

NGO Letter on Natural Resources and Conflict to the UN Secretary General�s High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "We also suggest binding rules governing the natural resource extraction industry. Such rules can prevent business activities from contributing to conflicts, through bribery, arming of rebel groups, trade in illicitly-obtained resources and the like. Transparency and accountability of payments and contracts, including the �publish what you pay� initiative, could contribute significantly to conflict prevention.
To promote a permanent knowledge base within the organization, the UN should establish a Secretariat office or a permanent inter-agency task force on natural resources and conflict. Such a cross-cutting unit could advise the Security Council and maintain global records on natural resource issues. It would increase efficiency and institutional knowledge and enable the UN to respond more rapidly and effectively. "

NGO Letter on Natural Resources and Conflict to the UN Secretary General�s High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council Recent devastating conflicts have been triggered, funded and exacerbated by the exploitation of natural resources including timber, diamonds, oil, water, ivory, coltan, cobalt and gold. Growing scarcity of some resources may increase such conflicts in the future.
To successfully resolve existing conflicts and prevent future violence, the United Nations must address natural resource issues more thoroughly and systematically. Ad hoc action by the Security Council is not enough. We propose a number of general initiatives that the Council could take, including a definition of “conflict resources” under international law, broad enforcement, more effective action to end impunity, and serious steps towards crisis prevention.

Wired News: Water Filters Rely on Nanotech: "Both companies claim their products are the first filters to block the passage of bacteria and viruses across a nanofibrous membrane effectively, making potable water available for people in places like Bangladesh who face horrific deformities due to high levels of naturally occurring arsenic in the water supply."

Wired News: Water Filters Rely on Nanotech: "Water covers more than 70 percent of the Earth, but only 1 percent can be consumed without processing, filtering or melting polar ice caps. That supply appears to be dwindling as the global population grows and industry and agriculture require more and more water. "

Feature Article: "Metaphorically speaking, our life span is a time bomb with many fuses burning at different speeds. Cutting off only one fuse may be inadequate�we need to take care of them all. "

Feature Article: "Metaphorically speaking, our life span is a time bomb with many fuses burning at different speeds. Cutting off only one fuse may be inadequate�we need to take care of them all. "

Feature Article: "HERE'S WHAT THE MATHEMATICS of reliability theory tells us. First, it predicts that a system may deteriorate with age even if it is built from nonaging elements�that is, elements that have a constant rate of failure that is caused by random factors, like being hit by radiation or infected with a virus, for example. "

Feature Article: "In reliability theory, aging is defined through the increased risk of failure. More precisely, something ages if it is more likely to fall apart tomorrow than today. If the risk of failure does not increase as time passes, then there is no aging in terms of reliability theory. "

Feature Article: "we age and die, we are not so different from the machines we build. The difference, we have found, is minimized if we think of ourselves in this unflattering way: we are like machines made up of redundant components, many of which are defective right from the start. "

Gmail - FUTUREdition Volume 7, Number 20: "Many scientists now believe that we have developed a sophisticated enough understanding of the nature of human aging to begin seriously planning ways to defeat it. Reliability theory allows researchers to predict how a system with a specified architecture and level of reliability of its constituent parts will fail over time. The theory is so general in scope that it can be applied to understanding aging in living organisms as well."

Gmail - FUTUREdition Volume 7, Number 20: "NEC has recently developed a handheld device, which consists of a speech recognition engine, translation software and a voice generator, enabling a user to chat in another language without having to learn any words or phrases"

People's Daily Online -- China-Japan oil race inevitable: "Japan, an economic power poor in energy resources, Japan has to depend on import for almost all energy resources: oil, coal and natural gas. According to authoritative statistics, averagely Japan imported daily almost four million barrels in 2002 and over 4.5 million in 2003. The fact is that its unduly heavy dependence on oil, more than 50 percent of its total energy consumption, has been a serious limitation. ...An indisputable fact is that both China and Japan are confronted with the same scarcity of energy and an surprising convergence...Analyst points out the converging dependence on foreign supply, the same sources of oil and gas import, plus relativity in geopolitics and geoeconomics all inevitably lead to China-Japan competition in the international oil market, which will turn more fierce and cruel as China's four big oil companies go overseas. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Political OrganizationScholars of the “realist” school of international studies maintain that it will not be in the interest of powerful nations to give up part of their sovereignty to global institutions

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Political Organization: "Global governance offers the opportunity for human beings to plan the future of the world in a more organized, democratic manner."

Accelerating Change 2004 - Nov 5-7, Stanford University: "Within five years, our personal computers will be able to store everything we read, write, hear, and many of the images we see including a bit of video. Vannevar Bush outlined such a system in his famous 1945 Memex article. "

Gmail - Press Review for Oct. 27, 2004: Extra $200 Billion Power Investment Needed To Ease Poverty: IEAAbout one-third of the world still won't have access to electricity in 2030 and the UN’s Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of poor living on less than $1 a day by 2015 won't be met unless an extra $200 billion is invested, the IEA said in the report. By 2030 most of
Africa and South Asia will still lag far behind the levels of energy use and access industrialized nations reached three decades ago.

European Press Review: Decisive Demographics? | Press Reviews & Opinion | Deutsche Welle |: "The planned withdrawal of Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip, 'could mark the end of the Israeli dream of a biblical Greater Israel, the beginning of a civil war with the settlers, or more optimistically the start of meaningful new relationship with the Palestinians,'"

Headlines for Tuesday, October 26, 2004: "Lewis predicted that, without emergency funding, much of the organization's $2.5 billion aid to struggling nations this year will have to be reallocated to fuel purchases by local governments, leaving health and education programs grossly underfunded or scrapped altogether. Developing countries are likely to have a harder time attracting such investment, particularly if their financial prospects are weakened by rising oil costs, according to the Lewis."

Headlines for Tuesday, October 26, 2004: “If the inhabitants of Mars visited us, they would come to the conclusion that we are mad,” declared Wolfensohn. “We spend $900 billion on defense and $350 billion on all sorts of agriculture subsidies annually. Development aid on the other hand amounts to $68 billion. We need around $30 per pupil per year to educate children who are not attending school. But the money is not available. Instead, we spend $150 per person per year on defense.” Rich countries have been promising for several years to spend 0.7 percent of their gross domestic product on development aid, which would add up to $200 billion per year compared to today’s $68 billion.

Gmail - World Bank Headlines for Tuesday, October 26, 2004: "Twenty-five years from now, the world will have a population of eight billion, of which seven billion will be in developing countries and one billion in rich countries, compared to five and one billion today. The rich industrialized countries will see their population increase by only 50 million. Meanwhile, the share of the developing countries in the world economy will rise from the current 20 percent to 40 percent in 2050."

ID21 - communicating development research: "An Oxfam report warns that money spent on weaponry is being diverted from the fight against poverty. The estimated total annual expenditure on arms ($900bn) is much higher than the $60bn allocated to aid. Oxfam reports that:
Military expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa rose by 47% during the late 1990s.
Seven developing countries � Oman, Syria, Burma, Sudan, Pakistan, Eritrea and Burundi - spend more on arms than they do on health and education combined: a further fourteen spend more on the military than on both health and education taken individually.
The cost of a radar system bought by Tanzania could have provided health care for 3.5 million Tanzanians.
The six billion dollars which South Africa spent on new weapons in 2003 could have purchased treatment drugs for all the country�s five million AIDS sufferers for two years.
When India agreed to buy a billion dollar US radar system in 2003, aid agencies were still searching for $50m to tackle a polio epidemic.
Half of Pakistan�s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes on defence: when it was preparing to spend several billion dollars on arms in 2003, aid agencies fighting a tuberculosis (TB) epidemic struggled to find funds for this country where TB kills more than 50 000 a year. "

ID21 - communicating development research: "Are industrialised states sacrificing development goals to earn money from the weapons trade? In 2002 arms deliveries to non-Western states made up two thirds of global arms exports. 90% of weapons were exported by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - China, France, Russia, UK and USA. The arms trade threatens achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). "

id21: "The world spends US$ 900 billion on defence each year, but only around US$ 50 billion on development aid. Across Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, an average of US$ 22 billion is spent annually on arms. This sum would enable those regions to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) of achieving universal primary education and reducing infant and maternal mortality. Instead one child in five does not complete primary school, more than 10 million children die each year, and half a million women die in pregnancy or childbirth. id21 Guest Editor Jane Chanaa points to the crucial roles that development organisations and exporter and importer states must play in halting the negative impact of arms deals on development."

Watch on the West: America and the West - FPRIDaniel Mahoney argues that the origin of this distinctive political ideology and practice lies in the social and cultural revolution of the 1960s. By now, what many Europeans call “the generation of ’68” has completed its “long march through the institutions” and come to power in most Western European countries. Mahoney analyzes this cultural revolution and resulting political transformation with particular reference to France, while Uwe Siemon-Netto offers a parallel exposition with a focus on Germany.

E-Notes: The Strategic Balance in the Middle East: an Israeli Perspective - FPRI In a November 17, 2003 testimony before the Israeli Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad, stressed that an Iranian atomic capability would constitute the greatest "threat to the existence of Israel” since 1948. Tehran, according to the intelligence chief, will soon reach a "point of no return” in its nuclear development, after which an Iranian offensive atomic capability would be a virtual certainty. Dagan’s assessment follows a recent warning by Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz that “Israel can in no way accept the presence of a nuclear weapon in Iranian hands”— a thinly-veiled threat that Jerusalem is prepared, if necessary, to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program by force if current international pressure fails to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

E-Notes: The Strategic Balance in the Middle East: an Israeli Perspective - FPRIWhile the future of Iraq remains unclear, Israel has benefited from the regime change in Baghdad. The new Iraq is busy with domestic problems and will find it difficult to conduct an active anti-Israeli foreign policy. The American presence and an initial dependency upon Washington would cause the new regime to avoid WMD programs. Such a posture in Iraq removes the potential for establishing an Eastern Front against Israel. Noteworthy, such a front is closer to Israel’s heartland than potential attacks from the north or south. Indeed, the change in Iraq allows Israel to implement cuts in various items of its defense budget.

E-Notes: The Strategic Balance in the Middle East: an Israeli Perspective - FPRI: "The Middle East has been divided for decades between radical forces challenging the regional status quo and Western influence, pro-Western states, and regional actors whose foreign policy fluctuated in accordance with the regional balance of power. Since September 11 2001, we witness an unprecedented American effort to enhance considerably its influence in the region. The global war on terrorism focuses on the Greater Middle East (from Libya to Afghanistan), which hosts the infrastructure (headquarters and training) of most terrorist organizations. The subsequent American invasion of Iraq was an additional effort to establish a Pax Americana in the region. "

Shifts in modern population patterns Death and birth rates start out high, but more or less in equilibrium. Then, advances in knowledge and improvements in income result in broad declines in mortality, precipitating rapid population increase. Finally, socioeconomic development brings about sustained fertility reductions via voluntary, deliberate changes in childbearing patterns, at which point births and deaths once more come into balance....but today we can observe some important and surprising exceptions to these generalizations. Four of these unanticipated trends are (1) the rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility, (2) the emergence of unnatural gender imbalances among the very young, (3) sustained increases in death rates, and (4) American “demographic exceptionalism.”

Press Review World Bank In the past 25 years China has had the most rapid poverty reduction in human history, reducing poverty to under 10 percent. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize laureate and Columbia University professor, believes the fruits of China's economic growth are widely shared and the rural sectors have been better off. Yet, he pointed out in August that in spite of all that, urban areas have done better than rural.

Watch on the West: America and the West - FPRI: "The new European ideology and practice not only required the overthrow of old conservative ideas and values-particularly Christian, national, and Western ones-but, as Paul Gottfried demonstrates, it also required the overthrow of the old Marxist ideology and practice. The old Marxism was too bound up with the industrial working-class, hierarchical organizations, and collectivist values to fit the new Leftism-it was too modern, rather than postmodern. Gottfried discusses this transformation on the Left, especially as it has developed in France and Germany."

Gmail - Press Review for Oct. 25, 2004: World Bank, IMF Only Ready For Case-By-Case Help To Poor Textile ExportersFourthly, poverty. In the past 25 years China has had the most rapid poverty reduction in human history, reducing poverty to under 10 percent. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize laureate and Columbia University professor, believes the fruits of China's economic growth are widely shared and the rural sectors have been better off.

Gmail - Press Review for Oct. 25, 2004: World Bank, IMF Only Ready For Case-By-Case Help To Poor Textile ExportersFourthly, poverty. In the past 25 years China has had the most rapid poverty reduction in human history, reducing poverty to under 10 percent. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize laureate and Columbia University professor, believes the fruits of China's economic growth are widely shared and the rural sectors have been better off.

Watch on the West: America and the West - FPRI: "The new European ideology and practice not only required the overthrow of old conservative ideas and values-particularly Christian, national, and Western ones-but, as Paul Gottfried demonstrates, it also required the overthrow of the old Marxist ideology and practice. The old Marxism was too bound up with the industrial working-class, hierarchical organizations, and collectivist values to fit the new Leftism-it was too modern, rather than postmodern. Gottfried discusses this transformation on the Left, especially as it has developed in France and Germany."

Watch on the West: America and the West - FPRI The new political ideology of humanitarianism and cosmopolitanism comes with its own distinctive political practice, one that oddly claims to be postpolitical. Daniel Mahoney argues that the origin of this distinctive political ideology and practice lies in the social and cultural revolution of the 1960s. By now, what many Europeans call “the generation of ’68” has completed its “long march through the institutions” and come to power in most Western European countries. Mahoney analyzes this cultural revolution and resulting political transformation with particular reference to France, while Uwe Siemon-Netto offers a parallel exposition with a focus on Germany.

Watch on the West: America and the West - FPRI: "Rather, as Stanley Michalak shows, what Europeans (or at least European elites) now wish to promote is a new kind of universalism, in particular an ideology centered upon the ideas of humanitarianism and cosmopolitanism. But as Michalak also shows, this is an ideology advanced by many American elites as well. In this sense, there is still a high degree of unity between Europe and America-or at least between their professional, academic, and cultural elites. It is, however, a unity that rejects the earlier notions of the West. It is also a unity whose ideology has no obvious answer to the new security challenges of today-particularly those posed by transnational networks of Islamic terrorists, who have their own notion of what it means to be cosmopolitan."

E-Notes: What Makes Alliances Tick? The 7th Annual Robert Strausz-Hup� Lecture, Address by the Hon. Dov S. Zakheim - FPRI Yet these kinds of “offers to help,” if that is what they can be termed, are simply a reflection of the calculus that enters into every government’s decision whether or not to join a military conflict. Democracies in particular have a complex calculus; they ignore public opinion at their peril. It is all very nice to tell the leaders of a democratic nation to defy their publics, and often their legislatures as well. If they do so long enough, however, they will no longer be leaders — even if terrorists do not enter into the act, as they did in Spain.

E-Notes: What Makes Alliances Tick? The 7th Annual Robert Strausz-Hup� Lecture, Address by the Hon. Dov S. Zakheim - FPRIDoes all this mean that “there are no alliances, only interests?” Not at all. The distinction is a false one. All states have interests, and when their interests converge often enough they will form alliances. Rarely, if ever, will interests converge all of the time, over years and decades. When some aspect of those interests diverge, the ties that bind alliances might fray, but are unlikely to come apart if underlying commonalities remain intact.

E-Notes: What Makes Alliances Tick? The 7th Annual Robert Strausz-Hup� Lecture, Address by the Hon. Dov S. Zakheim - FPRIRather, I want to point out that the roster of our allies is constantly changing. Recall that Italy was our ally in World War I, our enemy in World War II, and then again our ally during the cold war. Indeed, our war planners continued to have contingency operations directed against the United Kingdom as late as the early 1900s. And Britain’s blockade of Germany was a source of friction with the neutral United States in the early years of World War I.

E-Notes: What Makes Alliances Tick? The 7th Annual Robert Strausz-Hup� Lecture, Address by the Hon. Dov S. Zakheim - FPRI This is not to say that we can expect the same roster of allies to support us in every contingency. In a recent op- ed piece, Charles Krauthammer asks, “of all our allies in the world, which is the only one to have joined the United States in the foxhole in every war in the past 100 years? Not Britain, not Canada, certainly not France,” he states. “The answer is Australia.”

Catastrophic attack At the same time, civilization is vulnerable to cyber terrorism, power outages, information pollution (misinformation, pornography, junk e-mail, media violence), and virus attacks. (The probability of a catastrophic attack—global damages in excess of $100 billion from a chain of combined events—has risen from 2.5% for 2003 to about 30% for 2004, according to mi2g Ltd.)

Globally oriented future-oriented politicians are urgently needed. There is no escaping the need to educate the public, who could in turn elect more global future minded politicians.

In the past 20 years In the past 20 years, income per capita has grown almost 10%, life expectancy has increased about seven years, secondary school enrollments have grown by 30%, and infant mortality has dropped by almost 40%.

50 failed nation-states The number of democracies is growing, the number of dictatorships is decreasing, and more people will vote this year then ever before in history. At the same time, there are approximately 50 failed nation-states. What are the international community’s responsibilities for anticipating future failed states and rescuing current ones?

Population Yet the current population of 6.4 billion is forecasted to grow to 8.9 billion by 2050; 98% of this growth is expected in the poorer countries. The North is suffering from aging, declining populations and the need to provide retirement benefits, while the South is suffering from growing populations with very limited opportunities. It seems that a global strategy to match these needs and resources should be on the international agenda.

With better ICT we can more optimally match ideas, people, resources, and challenges worldwide in real time; with emerging global ethics and decision support systems, improved policies seem possible. But will this be sufficient to engage our thinking far enough into the future to get ahead of problems and seize opportunities?

Increasing proliferation of threats We may be in a race between the increasing proliferation of threats and our increasing ability to improve the human condition. This drama drives many people around the world to fight destructive fatalism by implementing innovations benefiting humanity. Yet the emergence of world conscience strategically focused on global challenges is too often distracted by trivia in the media, government pettiness, valueless marketing, daily complexities of survival, and all forms of information pollution. Nevertheless, enough wisdom has prevailed to accelerate human development for a growing majority of the world.

The International Criminal Court and Congo: Examining the Possibilities - International Justice - Global Policy Forum: "Perhaps the best place to begin to think about the possible role of the International Criminal Court in the Democratic Republic of Congo is to offer a brief overview of the conflict in Ituri as it relates to the ongoing war in Congo as a whole. Nestled in far-Eastern Congo, Ituri is far closer to Uganda and Rwanda than to Kinshasa. These two neighboring countries allegedly have created and controlled rebel militias that, though aspiring to exercise power at the national level, have exploited long-standing ethnic tensions between Ituri�s local Hema and Lendu ethnic populations. The international actors are motivated in part by their desire to control the region�s rich mineral resources, including diamonds, gold, timber and cobalt; the national rebel militias hope to materially benefit from their relationships with the international actors and to gain political power at the national level; the local ethnic disputes are rooted in land ownership disagreements, among other things. "

Do US Deficits Threaten Global Financial Stability?- Social and Economic Policy - Global Policy Forum: "America's long history of budget deficits, excessive federal spending, and trade deficits has not deterred capital flight from developing nations. The capital flight from developing nations to the US stems largely from domestic governance failures that cannot be corrected by the US administration. Capital does not end up in the country that needs it most, but in the country that treats it best. "

Do US Deficits Threaten Global Financial Stability?- Social and Economic Policy - Global Policy Forum: "Many of the world's most influential economists - Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, and Larry Summers and the IMF among them - and business leaders, including Peter Peterson and Warren Buffet, believe that US fiscal policies and the country's US$500 billion trade deficit threaten global financial stability. "

TNI Publications: "If, as we should, set out to dismantle and replace today's long, wasteful and undemocratic chains of aid, we might begin by looking at models of public redistribution already at work."

GPF Newsletter Oct. 18-22 -Links Mirages of International Aid (September 2004)
This article looks at modern foreign aid and argues that this undemocratic and paradoxical "industry" has "become a problem posing as a solution." In search of a better aid strategy, the author suggests implementing "solidarity transfers" similar to those in the European Union as a means to more fair and democratic public redistribution of aid. (Le Monde diplomatique)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/develop/oda/2004/09sogge.htm

The Encyclopedia of White Collar and Corporate Crime- Social and Economic Policy - Global Policy Forum: "If we want to do something about the powerful institutions and individuals that shape our lives, we need to educate ourselves about their culture of criminality -- and the public efforts to bring them to justice. One good place to start is the Encyclopedia of White Collar and Corporate Crime "

A Continent in Crying Need of Peacekeepers - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Africa's wars call for assistance at many levels, but training peacekeepers is one good place to start. A recent Oxford University study compared peacekeeping with a range of other interventions, from sanctions to development assistance. The study found that peacekeeping offered by far the best return on donor investment. Sometimes, as in Mozambique and Namibia, peacekeeping has eased a transition from war to peace, and the peacekeepers have gone home. "

Are Their Guns Paid For With British Aid? - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Millions have died in the relentless civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Now the UK has been accused of inadvertently supplying weapons to rebel militia. "

Iraq Explained by Behavioural Finance - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Behavioural studies have shown that individuals do not behave like the 'rational man' beloved by economic models. They do not calmly assess all the alternatives and choose the optimal solution. Instead, they use 'rules of thumb' that enable them to make quick decisions and cut through complexities. These rules create biases and quirks in our decision making. "

Iraq Explained by Behavioural Finance - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Behavioural studies have shown that individuals do not behave like the 'rational man' beloved by economic models. They do not calmly assess all the alternatives and choose the optimal solution. Instead, they use 'rules of thumb' that enable them to make quick decisions and cut through complexities. These rules create biases and quirks in our decision making. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "While anti-terrorism and traditional national-security rhetoric will be employed to explain risky deployments abroad, a growing number of American soldiers and sailors will be committed to the protection of overseas oilfields, pipelines, refineries and tanker routes. And because these facilities are likely to come under increasing attack from guerrillas and terrorists, the risk to American lives will grow accordingly. Inevitably, Americans will pay a higher price in blood for every additional liter of oil they obtain from abroad. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "As noted, a very similar trajectory is now under way in Colombia. The US military presence in oil-producing areas of Africa, though less conspicuous, is growing rapidly. The Department of Defense has stepped up its arms deliveries to military forces in Angola and Nigeria, and is helping to train their officers and enlisted personnel; meanwhile, Pentagon officials have begun to look for permanent US bases in the area, focusing on Senegal, Ghana, Mali, Uganda and Kenya. Although these officials tend to talk only about terrorism when explaining the need for such facilities, one officer told Greg Jaffe of the Wall Street Journal in June 2003 that 'a key mission for US forces [in Africa] would be to ensure that Nigeria's oilfields, which in the future could account for as much as 25% of all US oil imports, are secure'. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Because oil is viewed as the primary motive for US involvement in these areas, and because the giant US oil corporations are seen as the very embodiment of US power, anything to do with oil - pipelines, wells, refineries, loading platforms - is seen by insurgents as a legitimate and attractive target for attack; hence the raids on pipelines in Iraq, on oil-company offices in Saudi Arabia, and on oil tankers in Yemen. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "Sudden infusions of petroleum wealth in otherwise poor and underdeveloped countries tend to deepen divides between rich and poor that often fall along ethnic or religious lines, leading to persistent conflict over the distribution of petroleum revenues. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "As a result, we are seeing a historic shift in the center of gravity for world oil production - from the industrialized countries of the global North to the developing nations of the global South, which are often politically unstable"

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "More significant than this growing reliance on foreign oil, an increasing share of that oil will come from hostile, war-torn countries in the developing world, not from friendly, stable countries such as Canada or Norway. "

The Oil that Drives the US Military - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council: "The use of US military personnel to help protect vulnerable oil installations in conflict-prone, chronically unstable countries is certain to expand given three critical factors: America's ever-increasing dependence on imported petroleum, a global shift in oil production from the developed to the developing world, and the growing militarization of US foreign energy policy. "

Watch on the West: Four Surprises in Global Demography - FPRI Contemporary world population patterns are shaped by the “demographic transition” concept introduced to the field by the great demographer Frank Notestein several generations ago. That schema offers a stylized description of the great shifts in modern population patterns. Death and birth rates start out high, but more or less in equilibrium. Then, advances in knowledge and improvements in income result in broad declines in mortality, precipitating rapid population increase. Finally, socioeconomic development brings about sustained fertility reductions via voluntary, deliberate changes in childbearing patterns, at which point births and deaths once more come into balance.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends- Succeeding waves of new communication technologies, including the telegraph, telephone, sound recordings, film, radio, television, data recordings, satellites, and the Internet, have been major factors in cultural change since the nineteenth century. New communication technologies have quickly disseminated Western cultural ideas and information throughout the world. Often touted as the “New Economy,” the development of various forms of communication technology has been more profitable for many corporations than their previous ventures in the “Old Economy”—an economy fueled by heavy industry (e.g., steel production, manufacturing, etc.). This shift from “industrial” production of physical goods to the increased production of mass-marketed information, data services, and information hardware (e.g., computers and other information storage devices) has led some economists and historians to designate this current period as the “Information Age.”21

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Some Christian, Muslim, and Jewish leaders, as well as some environmentalists, oppose the cloning of animals, but this practice has not been specifically outlawed in any country. On the other hand, human cloning is illegal in all countries except Great Britain, which has legalized the cloning of embryos to produce new stem cells for research and therapies that could cure a number of diseases. In Japan, stem cell research is not a major issue but human-to-human organ transplants are. Although organ transplants between humans, and even between humans and animals (xenotransplantation), are common throughout most of the world, in Japan, they are a matter of great controversy."

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Three controversial areas include: human embryo stem cell research, human and animal cloning, and organ transplants. Research on stem cells from human embryos is controversial worldwide, but different nations are making different choices to legalize, ban, or strictly limit the procedure. This research has been legalized in China, Great Britain, India, Israel, Japan, and Saudi Arabia; banned in Italy; and strictly limited in Germany and the United States. Among religious groups, the Catholic Church has most clearly spoken against any kind of embryo experimentation. Opposition in Germany has arisen partially from a concern that the practice resembled the nation’s history of Nazi eugenics. Only Great Britain has clearly legalized studying stem cells taken from cloned embryos.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Some medical technologies, no matter how they are distributed, are themselves matters of great debate. In recent years, the development and use of genetic engineering, organ transplants, and biotechnology have introduced major ethical controversies into the medical community. The beliefs of dominant religious communities within a given nation and the different historical experiences of each individual nation, has had a significant impact on how various issues are received in those countries. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends- US economist Jeffrey Sachs writes that “global science is directed by the rich countries and for the rich-country markets.”18 Since most public health research is conducted by wealthy, developed countries, very little research is being conducted on health problems found primarily in tropical regions where many developing countries are located. In these regions, many people are not being vaccinated or receiving proper treatment against diseases (e.g., cholera, diphtheria, and leprosy) for which prevention and treatment are relatively well-understood because their health care systems are inadequate and underfunded. Millions die needlessly each year from preventable and/or curable diseases in undeveloped regions of the world.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Human mobility, warfare, and the adequate funding of health care systems also greatly affect the spread of disease. Warfare often creates refugees and disrupts health-care systems, increasing the risk of epidemics. Under-funded health care systems can also facilitate the occurrence of larger outbreaks. In addition to these factors is the increase in speed and frequency of transcontinental transportation, a factor that has quickened the pace at which new diseases (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS]) are being spread throughout the world. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Viruses and pests are building resistance to many of the achievements made by the public health sector. Epstein notes that “[i]ronically, our very means to control infectious disease—antibiotics and insecticides—are, themselves, rapidly driving the evolution of new and unaffected strains.”17

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Yet public health initiatives, along with reductions in poverty, are increasing employment opportunities for women, changing cultures and school systems, and enabling birth rates to decline. As population growth returns to near zero, nations emerge with a much older population. Demographers call this phenomenon the “demographic transition.”

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Medical technologies have had tremendous impacts on the size and nature of human societies. Improvements in public health over the last few centuries have caused death rates to decline, life spans to lengthen, and national populations to skyrocket. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "New public-health technologies affect the size and demographics of human populations, which in turn affects the scale of human impacts on terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric ecosystems."

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "New public-health technologies affect the size and demographics of human populations, which in turn affects the scale of human impacts on terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric ecosystems."

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends- Many agricultural researchers now seek to develop more “sustainable agricultural technologies.” Sustainable agriculture is defined as the ability of future generations to ensure that they are able to grow enough food to feed themselves without also destroying other ecosystem services.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Humans have altered or eliminated many different ecosystems in order to use land and water for their own purposes. The type of agricultural practices utilized in any given area can have significant impacts on the air composition, water resources, and future soil fertility of a particular area. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "The equivalent of more than six hundred billion US dollars are spent annually throughout the world on research and development within the natural resource, agricultural, public health, communications, and other industry sectors. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends- New technologies can create tremendous changes in societies. From China’s military use of gunpowder as early as the eighth century to the creation of the Internet in the United States (US) in the twentieth century, new methods, machinery, and technologies continue to alter the way humans live. For example, the invention of movable-type printing press technology in China and Korea, and the improvements made to printing technology by the German goldsmith Johann Gutenberg in 1455, ultimately facilitated the distribution of thousands of technological advances over the past five centuries.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Technology is a term that encompasses a wide range of ideas, designs, and systems. US physicist Harvey Brooks defines technology as “knowledge of how to fulfill certain human purposes in a specifiable and reproducible way.”1 In this sense, technology includes not just computers and equipment but also ideas about how to accomplish specific tasks.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Many natural resources (e.g., coal, petroleum, and metals) are nonrenewable. It takes millions of years to naturally reproduce nonrenewable resources. In an effort to slow the use and consequent depletion of these resources, some ecological economists advocate governmental regulation of nonrenewable resources. Other economists argue that free-market competition will lead to technological advances that will slow resource depletion. The depletion of resources in a free-market system has the effect of increasing the base cost of the original resource. When this occurs, it becomes profitable to expend monies for research and development. R&D often leads to the invention of new technological advances "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Technological research is a huge undertaking in many nations. It employs the equivalent of more than four million full-time private, non-profit, and public-sector workers.2"

People's Daily Online -- The Qiangtang Basin of Tibet rich in oil, gas reserves: "The new round of survey on land and resources of China confirms that the Qiangtang Basin on the Tibet Plateau is rich in oil and gas reserves. It will be the region with the brightest outlook for oil exploration and will probably become a new base for China's oil and gas industry."

People's Daily Online -- China, France to develop Linux platform: "China's Ministry of Science and Technology and French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) plan to jointly develop software for Lixun operatng system.
The two governmental departments will cooperate in developing a platform, based on Linux, able to be applied under various environments, such as personal computer, server and personal digital assistant.
The system will support online service and communication application software.
Sources say, Lixun has been developing very fast in France in recent years. In the second quarter of 2004, China's market of platform software also witnessed a high growth rate, with an aggregate of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.9 percent. "

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Political OrganizationEven as governance undergoes globalization, most economic, military, and environmental decisions are still made by individual nations and domestic corporations. The world’s political system can still be described as an anarchic system of competing nations. The future of environmental policy and other types of public policy will be shaped by developing relationships between international institutions, national governments, and corporations.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-Political OrganizationAs international institutions grow in number and scope, humans are making more decisions at the global level than ever before. The environment is among the leading issues being addressed by intergovernmental organizations (e.g., the United Nations) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Furthermore, the decisions leading to environmental degradation are increasingly being made by transnational corporations (TNCs). In studying these trends, political theorists speak of an increasing level of “global governance.”

Foreign Affairs - The Sources of American Legitimacy - Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson: "There is no simple and direct route to the recovery of U.S. legitimacy. The years when the United States appeared as the hope of the world now seem long distant. Washington is hobbled by a reputation for the reckless use of force, and it is going to take a long time to live that down. World public opinion now sees the United States increasingly as an outlier-invoking international law when convenient, and ignoring it when not; using international institutions when they work to its advantage, and disdaining them when they pose obstacles to U.S. designs."

Foreign Affairs - The Sources of American Legitimacy - Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson: "the 'spirit of moderation in a state of overbearing power is a phenomenon which has not yet appeared, and which no wise man will expect ever to see.'"

Foreign Affairs - The Sources of American Legitimacy - Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson: "Having built up a prodigious military machine in the course of its rivalry with the Soviet Union, the United States now found itself without a military equal and in a position, from a narrow military standpoint, to act without the serious prospect of external restraint."

Foreign Affairs - The Sources of American Legitimacy - Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson: "All four of the pillars that supported U.S. legitimacy in the post-World War II era-its commitment to international law, its acceptance of consensual decision-making, its reputation for moderation, and its identification with the preservation of peace-were now in question."

Foreign Affairs - The Sources of American Legitimacy - Robert W. Tucker and David C. Hendrickson: "Legitimacy arises from the conviction that state action proceeds within the ambit of law, in two senses: first, that action issues from rightful authority, that is, from the political institution authorized to take it; and second, that it does not violate a legal or moral norm. Ultimately, however, legitimacy is rooted in opinion, and thus actions that are unlawful in either of these senses may, in principle, still be deemed legitimate."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "The United States cannot and should not prevent the emergence of new technology clusters in Asia. Instead, it should prepare to develop and absorb new technologies as they emerge elsewhere. The ability to make good use of diverse ideas and systems remains one of the United States' most important comparative advantages, and U.S. companies must make sure that good ideas, no matter where they are developed, are brought to market in the United States first."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "Policymakers should therefore be careful not to focus too much on any particular statistic. Dollars spent on R&D or research papers published are easy to measure, but innovation involves many other factors. The speed at which new technologies such as broadband are adopted and diffused, the flexibility of labor markets, and the ease with which new companies can enter and exit technology markets all affect the ability of innovators to flourish in a particular economy-yet such factors usually fall outside the parameters of traditional S&T policy."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "The result has been a shift in the locus of innovation from individual corporate labs to networks of technology firms, capital markets, and research universities.
Cheaper communications technologies have also allowed U.S. companies to operate more globally, dividing production into discrete functions, contracting out to producers in different countries, and transferring technological know-how to foreign partners. "

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "These funding decreases may be exacerbated by a coming labor shortage. The number of Americans pursuing advanced degrees in the sciences and engineering is declining, and university science and engineering programs are growing more dependent on foreign-born talent. Thirty-eight percent of the nation's scientists and engineers with doctorates were born outside the country. And of the Ph.D.'s in science and engineering awarded to foreign students in the United States from 1985 to 2000, more than half went to students from China, India, South Korea, and Taiwan."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "Although federal expenditures on R&D are expected to reach $132 billion in fiscal year 2005 and $137.5 billion in 2009, new spending will be concentrated in the fields of defense, homeland security, and the space program. Funding for all other R&D programs, meanwhile, will remain flat this year and decline in real terms over the next five years."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "Although the United States' technical dominance remains solid, the globalization of research and development is exerting considerable pressures on the American system. Indeed, as the United States is learning, globalization cuts both ways: it is both a potent catalyst of U.S. technological innovation and a significant threat to it. "

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "Today, however, this technological edge-so long taken for granted-may be slipping, and the most serious challenge is coming from Asia. Through competitive tax policies, increased investment in research and development (R&D), and preferential policies for science and technology (S&T) personnel, Asian governments are improving the quality of their science and ensuring the exploitation of future innovations. The percentage of patents issued to and science journal articles published by scientists in China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan is rising. Indian companies are quickly becoming the second-largest producers of application services in the world, developing, supplying, and managing database and other types of software for clients around the world. South Korea has rapidly eaten away at the U.S. advantage in the manufacture of computer chips and telecommunications software. And even China has made impressive gains in advanced technologies such as lasers, biotechnology, and advanced materials used in semiconductors, aerospace, and many other types of manufacturing."

Foreign Affairs - Is America Losing Its Edge? - Adam Segal: "For 50 years, the United States has maintained its economic edge by being better and faster than any other country at inventing and exploiting new technologies. Today, however, its dominance is starting to slip, as Asian countries pour resources into R&D and challenge America's traditional role in the global economy."

Why invest in robots? In the last decade the performance of robots has increased enormously while at the same time their prices have been plummeting. A robot sold in 2003 would have cost about a fourth of what a robot with the same performance would have cost in 1990. In the last few years the price decrease of robots has, however, started to level off. Profitability studies have shown that it is not unusual for robots to have a pay-back period as short as 1-2 years.

Robots How many robots are now working out there in industry? Worldwide at least 800,000 units (possibly the real stock could be well over one million units), of which 350,000 in Japan, close to 250,000 in the European Union and about 112,000 in North America. In Europe, Germany is in the lead with 112,700 units, followed by Italy with 50,000, France with 26,000, Spain with 20,000 and the United Kingdom with 14,000.

People's Daily Online -- China's growth blesses the world: "China had extensive low-cost and high-quality labour resources, which have become a major attraction for multinational companies. Presently, about 80 per cent of the world's top 500 companies have invested in China. By the end of December 2003, China had ushered in a total of US$501.5 billion in actual foreign direct investment (FDI), making it the second largest destination for FDI, after the United States. "

- Table on world and regional military expenditure, 1994-2003: "World and regional military expenditure estimates
1994 - 2003"

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, HIGHLIGHTS: "The free access to genetic sequence data for the human genome and a large number of other genomes, including those for pathogenic micro-organisms, is a great scientific resource, but it could pose a significant threat if misused."

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, HIGHLIGHTS: "The impact of the Iraq war on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism is difficult to assess. Potential proliferators may draw the conclusion that the costs and risks of acquiring WMD have increased significantly, but they may also conclude that the only way to prevent themselves from becoming the victims of regime change is to develop a credible deterrent. Similarly, the Iraq war may have exacerbated the problem of international terrorism by creating a new frontline in Iraq and fuelling Arab and Islamic resentment. Conversely, by triggering new debate on the political future of the greater Middle East it may also have created a chance to address the deeper causes of radical Islamic terrorism."

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, HIGHLIGHTSDuring the first years of the 21st century, at least, the northern hemisphere’s family of democratic states does not seem to have found the formula for becoming more inclusive and more united.

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, Introduction The performance of new military equipment and tactics in Iraq will encourage imitators in some parts of the world and a search for new ‘asymmetric’ responses in others. The concomitant boost in US military expenditure has aggravated both the problems of budgetary and trade imbalance for the USA itself, and the uncertainties for the whole world economy.

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, CHAPTER 10: "During most of 2003, much of the focus in national military spending debates continued to be on the need to increase military spending to meet increasing dangers and risks in an increasingly complex and globalized world. However, towards the end of the year and in early 2004, there were several indications that other factors, related to the economic burden of the military sector and to ethical considerations, tended to increase in importance in several countries. In particular, the US doctrine of pre-emptive wars was being challenged on both ethical and international law grounds, as well as because of the large costs and dubious successes associated with it. Thus, while US military expenditure is set to continue to grow and will continue to propel world military spending, the pace is likely to fall back somewhat in the next few years. In the longer term it is doubtful whether current levels will be economically and politically sustainable."

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, CHAPTER 10: "During most of 2003, much of the focus in national military spending debates continued to be on the need to increase military spending to meet increasing dangers and risks in an increasingly complex and globalized world. However, towards the end of the year and in early 2004, there were several indications that other factors, related to the economic burden of the military sector and to ethical considerations, tended to increase in importance in several countries. In particular, the US doctrine of pre-emptive wars was being challenged on both ethical and international law grounds, as well as because of the large costs and dubious successes associated with it. Thus, while US military expenditure is set to continue to grow and will continue to propel world military spending, the pace is likely to fall back somewhat in the next few years. In the longer term it is doubtful whether current levels will be economically and politically sustainable."

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, CHAPTER 10While military expenditure is also rising in several other major countries, these increases are much smaller, and there is little indication that the strong increase in US military spending is resulting in an equally strong tendency for other countries to follow suit. It is difficult to assess the importance of US influence relative to more basic drivers of military spending, such as changing threat perceptions, increased global responsibilities and force projection, and the dynamics of military technology—in particular, since these factors are often strongly interlinked with the relevant countries’ relations with the USA. While all countries accept that no nation is currently able to match the USA in military power, there are other types of response that could impact on their military spending.

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, CHAPTER 10While military expenditure is also rising in several other major countries, these increases are much smaller, and there is little indication that the strong increase in US military spending is resulting in an equally strong tendency for other countries to follow suit. It is difficult to assess the importance of US influence relative to more basic drivers of military spending, such as changing threat perceptions, increased global responsibilities and force projection, and the dynamics of military technology—in particular, since these factors are often strongly interlinked with the relevant countries’ relations with the USA. While all countries accept that no nation is currently able to match the USA in military power, there are other types of response that could impact on their military spending.

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, CHAPTER 10: "World military spending in 2003 increased by about 11 per cent in real terms. This is a remarkable rate of increase, even more so given that it was preceded by an increase of 6.5 per cent in 2002. Over two years world military spending increased by 18 per cent in real terms, to reach $956 billion (in current dollars) in 2003. High-income countries account for about 75 per cent of world military spending but only 16 per cent of world population. The combined military spending of these countries was slightly higher than the aggregate foreign debt of all low-income countries and 10 times higher than their combined levels of official development assistance in 2001. While it is not possible, because of a lack of data, to make the same comparison for 2003, it is clear that these gaps have widened owing to the stark rise in world military expenditure since 2001. Thus, there is a large gap between what countries are prepared to allocate for military means to provide security and maintain their global and regional power status, on the one hand, and to alleviate poverty and promote economic development, on the other."

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2004, IntroductionThe severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003 was a reminder that the world is threatened by other dangers— including, for example, climate change and environmental collapse—for which it has yet to find either united policies or adequate resources. More insidious damage was done in the year to human rights and freedoms, without which security policies designed to protect and spread Western-style values risk losing both credibility and effect.

FORE: Disciplines-Policy-Global Trends-: "Scholars in fields from economics to religion have debated the connections between economic systems, cultural attitudes, and the tendency to choose war over negotiation and compromise.
Increasingly, war causes severe environmental damage, and severe environmental damage can lead to the instigation of additional war responses."

Item DetailsGlobal inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) declined in 2003 for the third year in a row, to $560 billion (table 1). This was prompted again by a fall in FDI flows to developed countries: at $367 billion, they were 25% lower than in 2002 (table 2). Worldwide, 111 countries saw a rise in flows, and 82 a decline. The fall in flows to the United States by 53%, to $30 billion – the lowest level in the past 12 years – was particularly dramatic. FDI flows to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) also slumped, from $31 billion to $21 billion. It was only developing countries as a group that experienced a recovery, with FDI inflows rising by 9%, to $172 billion overall. But in this group, the picture was mixed: Africa and Asia and the Pacific saw an increase, while Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a continuing decline. The group of 50 least developed countries (LDCs) continued to receive little FDI ($7 billion). Prospects for 2004, however, are promising. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) – still low at $297 billion in 2003 – began to pick up. They rose by 3% in the first six months of 2004 over the same period in 2003.

Is there really a rise in oil prices?: "Which energy source will we use in future? Despite forecasts of a change to nuclear power, oil will continue to play a key role. According to the International Energy Agency demand will increase by 1.9% a year, from 80m barrels a day in 2003 to 120m in 2020. By then Arab countries will produce 41% of global supplies rather than the present 25%."

Asociaci�n de Historia Actual. Article: "With the end of the cold war in 1989 and the subsequent decline of Russia as a serious immediate contender, as well as the decline during the 1990s of the hype of Japan as #1, two other regions, states and powers came into contention. One is the United States whose fortunes and prospects seemed to have declined after 1970 but recovered in the 1990s; and even so it is a Paper Tiger. The other is East Asia, despite its post 1997 crisis, and especially China --the Fiery Dragon. This article analyzes the economic and geopolitical keys that orient the strategies of both contenders. The examination of the world economy and of the predominant place in it of the East Asian points to the most fundamental bases of contemporary economic developments in the region and also presages important world economic ones for the foreseeable future."

The Eternal Return: Imperialism and �Globalization� Revisited - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "The Viet Nam war ended the use of citizen armies in the United States. Since then, the Cold War fight has depended on the use of anti-communist mercenary armies wherever possible (the Contras in Nicaragua, Renamo in Mozambique, Savimbi in Angola), selective military engagement, and the occupation of strategic chokepoints (both geographically and institutionally). As was the case with nineteenth century European imperialism, the deployment of military force to secure and defend capitalist globalization today is being carried out by professional armies. Overall, this has weakened the bargaining position of workers and strengthened the position of capital. "

The Eternal Return: Imperialism and �Globalization� Revisited - Empire? - Global Policy Forum: "In current discourses, �globalization� tends to be misrepresented in two ways. First, it is wrongly represented as either a radical and absolute break with the past or the result of an evolutionary process. Second, it is treated as impelled by macro-economic forces and the technological evolution of capitalism. Globalization is not new: capitalism 'globalized' from the start. [31] Moreover, throughout its history, the globalization of capital has been driven by processes that are largely national and political. A broad-based political campaign is endeavoring to accelerate the globalization of capital today. While it is being waged on many fronts, it is specifically aimed at reversing the post-war social settlements that tied capital to the development of national communities by shifting power from labor to capital within states and undermining democratic national governments. "

Three major sources of changes They are: changes in the world economy (such as globalization), new institutional configurations (such as the establishment of the WTO) and ideological shifts in development thinking (such as the emergence of the Washington Consensus).

Mullahs Love US Oil Policy By channeling money to undemocratic oil-rich regimes in the Middle East, US energy policy creates an environment that supports rather than fights terrorism. (New York Times)
http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/terrorwar/analysis/2004/1008mullahs.htm

DRC Discrepancies between official figures are illustrative: in March the Central Bank of Congo reported the DRC produced 783 tonnes of cobalt metal. In the same month, the DRC’s customs office reported 13,365tonnes of cobalt metal was exported – a difference of over 12,000 tonnes. This discrepancy raises serious questions about where mining revenues are going and how trade and production is being recorded.

People's Daily Online -- China to be No.2 economic entity by 2020: "The latest Global Competitiveness Report 2004 released by World Economic Forum estimates that China would become the global second largest economic entity by 2020 based on the current fast growing pace of China's economy.
The report foresees that China will become the global second economic entity by 2020. 'The encouraging feature of China's economic growth is that China opens its huge market to the world and the number of poor people is on a dramatic decrease,' said Augusto Lopez-Claros, chief economist of World Economic Forum. "

We haven’t got the right ideas to promote development,” says Harvard University’s Ricardo Hausmann. “There is a crisis in development thinking. It’s a crisis where leadership will not come from Wolfensohn.”

Wired News: People Are Human-Bacteria Hybrid: "Most of the cells in your body are not your own, nor are they even human. They are bacterial. From the invisible strands of fungi waiting to sprout between our toes, to the kilogram of bacterial matter in our guts, we are best viewed as walking 'superorganisms,' highly complex conglomerations of human, fungal, bacterial and viral cells. "

BBC - Science & Nature - Genes - Adam and Eve: "In the 1980s a scientist called Allan Wilson carried out such a comparison. He looked at the mitochondrial DNA of 135 women from all around the world. By comparing the number of copying mistakes separating each woman from each other woman, he arrive at a startling conclusion: Through our maternal line we all share the same common ancestor who lived around 150,000 years ago.
By one estimate this shared ancestor is your 10,000th great grandmother � and everyone else's 10,000th great grandmother as well.
She has come to be known as 'Mitochondrial Eve'. "

BBC - Science & Nature - Genes - Adam and Eve: "DNA is a valuable tool when it comes to reconstructing our ancestry. We can trace the links between ourselves and our ancestors through the DNA we share with them. The trouble is that sex gets in the way.
Sex mixes genes (through recombination) and shuffles chromosomes such that everyone's genetic make-up is unique. We share only half of our genes with each of our parents, one quarter with each of our grandparents. The trail becomes increasingly hard to follow with every generation. "

BBC - Science & Nature - Genes - African roots study: "Looking at differences in DNA can help us find out about our history. This is true for people of all races and backgrounds. The two most useful pieces of DNA used in history research are:
Mitochondrial DNA - we inherit mitochondrial DNA only from our mothers. It passes virtually unchanged from mother to child from generation to generation
Y chromosome DNA - only men have a Y chromosome. Boys inherit their Y chromosome from their fathers. It passes almost unchanged from father to son through the generations
All our other DNA is made up of a mixture of DNA from both of our parents. It's mixed up every generation in a process known as recombination, which makes it more complicated for looking at our ancestry. "

BBC - Science & Nature - Genes - African roots study: "Modern humans, Homo sapiens, emerged little more than 100,000 years ago. There has been little opportunity for variation between humans to occur in this time. As a result, the genetic differences between people across the world are very small � somewhere around 0.03%. While the amount of genetic variation between people does vary, each one of us, with the exception of identical twins, is genetically unique. This is why no two people look alike. "

The Descent of Man - Episode 4 (Modern Technologies): "Author Richard Dawkins believes that humans alone, of all species, have the capacity to rebel against their genes, to 'upset their designs'.
Yet Dawkins' own work helped to pave the way for the development of evolutionary psychology; and in the 1990s, philosophers, social scientists, legal theorists and others have begun to advocate a morality based on evolution. "

Global perspective is essential component of modern education - 2004-10-11 - San Antonio Business Journal: "Even the average man on the street understands that he is living in a changing world -- a world increasingly interdependent and interconnected. More and more products we buy are being manufactured in foreign lands; political upheavals in other countries are increasingly impacting our own lives; and interaction with people of other cultures is becoming almost routine. The popular name for this is globalization. "

News > Press Releases > Archives > By Month > 2004 > Fujitsu Develops Service Robot that Offers Human Task Support in Offices and Commercial Establishments - FUJITSU: "Fujitsu Develops Service Robot that Offers Human Task Support in Offices and Commercial Establishments"

Gmail - FUTUREdition Volume 6, Number 19Experts met at the National Academy of Sciences conference to discuss the challenges facing nanotechnology, including looking squarely at the risks involved. One scientist warns, "The chief danger is not what nanomachines might do by accident. It is instead the consequences, both intended and unintended, of what people choose to do with powerful new technologies in a world dominated by economic and strategic competition."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: " Democratization [17] has been defined as humanity learning to live, and cooperate, with each other, constructively and non-violently. "

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: "The (120-year) long cycle of global politics is also known as the rise and decline of world powers. This is the process that selects the agency of global political evolution. This is the process by which in the past half-millennium four nation-states have, in succession, each gained the position of global leadership {5,6]. This is the process that will also select the agency for future global organization. Such a cycle has four generation-long phases: Agenda-setting (variation), Coalition-building (cooperation); Macrodecision (selection), and Execution (amplification). This process is enabled by the evolutionary potential of the nation-state or global organization anchored in the active zone of the world system."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: " Evolutionary learning mechanisms, powerful though they are, do not operate equally, everywhere, and instantaneously. They appear first in, and favor, regions and areas with high evolutionary potential. Such regions or areas are those marked by organizational capacity equal to the requirements of global competition; they show openness that advantages diversity that is a condition of innovation; they excel in technologies of cooperation, and offer conditions favorable to low-cost transactions. Generally they are responsive to global problems. Because evolutionary potential varies across areas, and across time, some regions become, for periods of system time, privileged zones from which innovation then diffuses in well-understood patterns."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: " In sum, global political evolution is here conceived as driven by both competition and cooperation organized and amplified by the diversity of policies and strategies."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: Where “natural” selection concerns forces of nature operating within the physical environment (including climate and geography), “social” selection operates primarily within the social environment at the global, regional, national and local levels. Where “natural” selection acts via genetic material, and must necessarily take time, “social” selection is faster, involves cultural transmission, and acts upon clusters of human behavior embodied in policies and strategies.

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: "How and why this might be so remains to be demonstrated, on this site, and elsewhere. World political institutions obviously are not unchangeable. That fact must be blindingly obvious to one who engages in the thought experiment of comparing world politics 500 or 1000 ago with those of the year 2000. The whole of the world system has changed in that time, and with it also, unsurprisingly, the structure of world politics.

That is why the thesis of the allegedly permanent, hence also unchangeable, nature of international politics, and hence also for example its consequently unavoidable propensity to war, is unacceptable. But if global institutions are indeed subject to change, the process can be either random, and therefore unfathomable, or else display patterns of regularity. The task for students of evolutionary world politics is to explore that second possibility and that is where evolutionary theory finds its place."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: "The basic hypothesis organizing this field (and provisional answer to the basic question) is the evolutionary one: that world politics is subject to evolution. That is, it proposes that structural changes in political (and more generally, social) arrangements of the human species are the product of evolutionary processes."

WHAT IS EVOLUTIONARY WORLD POLITICS: "As the introductory sentence makes clear, the focus of this study is not the rich description, or the analysis of the functioning, of global political institutions. The basic question for evolutionary world politics concerns change: how do world-wide political arrangements re-form over the long-run, and what explains the process that, certainly over the past millennium, can be described as one of political globalization?"