How Facts Backfire - (Boston Globe - July 11, 2010)
Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It's this: Facts don't necessarily have the power to change our minds. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. "The general idea is that it's absolutely threatening to admit you're wrong," says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, lead researcher on the Michigan study. The phenomenon - known as "backfire" - is "a natural defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance." 

Three Years On, Fault Lines Threaten the World Economy - (Financial Times - July 14, 2010)
As Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund notes in a thought-provoking new book, the earthquake of the past few years has damaged western economies, while leaving those of emerging countries, particularly Asia, standing. It has also destroyed western prestige. The west has dominated the world economically and intellectually for at least two centuries. That epoch is over. In the US, the post-WW II "deal" centered on full employment and high individual consumption. In Europe, it centered on state-provided welfare. The deal is over. 

Amazon Says E-Book Sales Outpace Hardcovers - (Wall St. Journal - July 20, 2010)
Amazon.com Inc. said it reached a milestone, selling more e-books than hardbacks over the past three months. But publishers said it is still too early to gauge for the entire industry whether the growth of e-books is cannibalizing sales of paperback books, a huge and crucial market. Over the past month, the Seattle retailer sold 180 Kindle books for every 100 hardcover books it sold, it said. "That is dramatic evidence of how powerful the e-book is now," said Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney. 

Where we are winning

1. Improved water source (% of population with access)

2. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

3. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

4. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population in least developed countries)

5. Population growth (annual %) (A drop is seen as good for some countries, bad for others)

6. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

7. Physicians (per 1,000 people)

8. Internet users (per 100 people)

9. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

10. Life expectancy at birth, total (years)

11. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)

12. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)

13. Number of Major Armed Confl icts (number of deaths >1,000)

14. Food availability (cal/cap)

Where we are losing:

15. CO2 emissions (kt)

16. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

17. People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age- 15 largest countries)

18. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)

19. Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)

20. Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries)

21. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)

22. Refugee population by country or territory of asylum

Where there is little change

23. Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)

24. Homicide Rate

25. Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)

Where there is uncertainty

26. Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number)

27. Population in Countries that are Free (percent of total global population)

28. Forest area (% of land area)

29. Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income

30. Number of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases

The state of the future � KurzweilAI

The state of the future � KurzweilAI: "[ ]


Our study has found eight specific problem areas where things are getting worse: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies, People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age for 15 largest countries), Unemployment (% of total labor force), Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total), Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries), People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number), and Refugee population by country or territory of asylum."