Economic Growth Fueling Rise of Emerging Players
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
Nov 25, 2008
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial: "Other projections in 'Global Trends 2025': include:
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
The ODNI report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system. The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, "Global Trends 2025" concludes.
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018: "The eight trends are as follows:
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
Global Trends 2025: A "more complex international system" is likely by the year 2025, with global power shifts making the world "almost unrecognizable" by then. The National Intelligence Council, which does strategic thinking for the U.S. intelligence community, takes a look into the future with its "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Globalization and the rise of eastern nations and non-state actors mean that "the players are changing." Among the changes likely in the coming decades: the gap between developed and developing nations will narrow, conflicts will erupt over ever scarcer resources like water and oil, and the United States is likely to remain the major world power, but it will "become more constrained" as other nations and factions rise. Uncertainties remain about whether these demographic and economic issues will lead to a more cooperative or fragmented world, but unpredictable "major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises" are sure to affect the course of history.
Nov 21, 2008
Intervention by any name Ultra-modern conventional armed forces and weapons are ill-suited to fight today’s asymmetrical wars against non-state actors resorting to sub-conventional arms and tactics. But supercarriers, supersonic aircraft, anti-missile missiles, military satellites, surveillance robots, and unmanned vehicles and boats are not going out of season. Intervention, direct and indirect, open and covert, military and civic, in the internal affairs of other states has been standard US foreign policy since 1945. The US has not hesitated to intervene, mostly unilaterally, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Bolivia and Colombia, in pursuit of its imperial interest.
Taking the USAID (United States Agency for International Development), Fulbright Programme and Congress for Cultural Freedom of the anti-Communist cold war as their model, the stalwarts of the new global war on terror have created equivalents in the State Department’s Millennial Challenge and Middle East Partnership Initiative. The defence department enlists universities through Project Minerva to help with the new model counterinsurgency warfare and unconventional military state-building operations.
But though they endure, overextended empires suffer injuries to their power and prestige. In such moments they tend to lash out, to avoid being taken for paper tigers. Given Washington’s predicament in Iraq, will the US escalate its intervention in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Somalia or Venezuela? The US has the strongest army the world has ever known. Preponderant on sea, in the air and in space (including cyberspace), the US has an awesome capacity to project its power over enormous distances with speed, a self-appointed sheriff rushing to master or exploit real and putative crises anywhere on earth. In the words of the former secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld: “No corner of the world is remote enough, no mountain high enough, no cave or bunker deep enough, no SUV fast enough to protect our enemies from our reach.”
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