Apr 3, 2009
What to Read on Geopolitics | Foreign Affairs
What to Read on Geopolitics | Foreign Affairs: "Theorizing about the relationship between geography and security is one of the oldest and most central themes of Western political science. Modern geopolitical thinking appeared in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, differing from its predecessors in its emphasis on technological change and global systems of power. In vogue before and through the world wars, geopolitics fell out of favor by the second half of the century, accused of everything from environmental determinism to simplistic binary categorization. Today, however, the subject is undergoing a revival -- perhaps based on the recognition that global political changes in the twenty-first century may stem not simply from human culture and institutions but also the geographical environment."
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs: "Using traditional tools of influence to counter opponents and shift the strategic orientation of secondary regional actors would be a classic move -- and just the sort to get the United States right back in the game."
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs: "All this is sensible, but to best secure U.S. interests in the Middle East, the new administration needs to remind itself of the rules of the local game -- the traditional contest for influence among regional states. It is played out more in political terms than in military ones, although the possibility of violence is never far. The players are the stronger regional powers (Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey) and the playing fields are the weaker powers (Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories) whose governments cannot prevent outsiders from interfering in domestic politics. The tools of influence are money, guns, and ideology -- and the scorecard is judged by the political orientations of the weaker states."
What to Read on Modernization Theory | Foreign Affairs
What to Read on Modernization Theory | Foreign Affairs: "Lipset's argument was actually fairly sophisticated. He claimed that economic development sets off a series of profound social changes that together tend to produce democracy. He noted, for example, that wealthier societies tend to have higher levels of education and urbanization, more sophisticated and varied means of communication, larger middle classes, and greater social equality and mobility. All of these things, Lipset argued, are associated with, and necessary for the emergence and proper functioning of, democratic political institutions."
Mar 18, 2009
NIC 2025 Project
NIC 2025 Project: "Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:
The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East."
The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East."
Jan 6, 2009
Technology Review: Our Past Within Us
Technology Review: Our Past Within Us: "Furthermore, Renfrew told me, 'studies of mtDNA mutation rates give an approximate chronology that ties quite nicely to data from radiocarbon dating of fossil remains.' Like radiocarbon dating itself, mtDNA analysis has refuted long-cherished myths about race by showing that humankind almost certainly had a single origin in Africa, with our main dispersal out of that continent occurring about 60,000 years ago and proba bly involving a relatively small number of humans. During humanity's global diaspora, many populations grew isolated. Today, mitochondrial haplogroups--groups that share common ancestors--are identifiable as originating in Africa, Europe, Asia, the Americas, and the Pacific Islands."
Dec 19, 2008
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "This damage has put the American model of free-market capitalism under a cloud. The financial system is seen as having collapsed; and the regulatory framework, as having spectacularly failed to curb widespread abuses and corruption. Now, searching for stability, the U.S. government and some European governments have nationalized their financial sectors to a degree that contradicts the tenets of modern capitalism. Much of the world is turning a historic corner and heading into a period in which the role of the state will be larger and that of the private sector will be smaller. As it does, the United States' global power, as well as the appeal of U.S.-style democracy, is eroding. Although the United States is fortunate that this crisis coincides with the promise inherent in the election of Barack Obama as president, historical forces -- and the crash of 2008 -- will carry the world away from a unipolar system regardless."
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the United States and Europe. Over the medium term, Washington and European governments will have neither the resources nor the economic credibility to play the role in global affairs that they otherwise would have played. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the interim, they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the United States."
Nov 26, 2008
Economic Growth Fueling Rise of Emerging Players
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
Nov 25, 2008
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial: "Other projections in 'Global Trends 2025': include:
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
The ODNI report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system. The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, "Global Trends 2025" concludes.
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018: "The eight trends are as follows:
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
Global Trends 2025: A "more complex international system" is likely by the year 2025, with global power shifts making the world "almost unrecognizable" by then. The National Intelligence Council, which does strategic thinking for the U.S. intelligence community, takes a look into the future with its "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Globalization and the rise of eastern nations and non-state actors mean that "the players are changing." Among the changes likely in the coming decades: the gap between developed and developing nations will narrow, conflicts will erupt over ever scarcer resources like water and oil, and the United States is likely to remain the major world power, but it will "become more constrained" as other nations and factions rise. Uncertainties remain about whether these demographic and economic issues will lead to a more cooperative or fragmented world, but unpredictable "major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises" are sure to affect the course of history.
Nov 21, 2008
Intervention by any name Ultra-modern conventional armed forces and weapons are ill-suited to fight today’s asymmetrical wars against non-state actors resorting to sub-conventional arms and tactics. But supercarriers, supersonic aircraft, anti-missile missiles, military satellites, surveillance robots, and unmanned vehicles and boats are not going out of season. Intervention, direct and indirect, open and covert, military and civic, in the internal affairs of other states has been standard US foreign policy since 1945. The US has not hesitated to intervene, mostly unilaterally, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Bolivia and Colombia, in pursuit of its imperial interest.
Taking the USAID (United States Agency for International Development), Fulbright Programme and Congress for Cultural Freedom of the anti-Communist cold war as their model, the stalwarts of the new global war on terror have created equivalents in the State Department’s Millennial Challenge and Middle East Partnership Initiative. The defence department enlists universities through Project Minerva to help with the new model counterinsurgency warfare and unconventional military state-building operations.
But though they endure, overextended empires suffer injuries to their power and prestige. In such moments they tend to lash out, to avoid being taken for paper tigers. Given Washington’s predicament in Iraq, will the US escalate its intervention in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Somalia or Venezuela? The US has the strongest army the world has ever known. Preponderant on sea, in the air and in space (including cyberspace), the US has an awesome capacity to project its power over enormous distances with speed, a self-appointed sheriff rushing to master or exploit real and putative crises anywhere on earth. In the words of the former secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld: “No corner of the world is remote enough, no mountain high enough, no cave or bunker deep enough, no SUV fast enough to protect our enemies from our reach.”
Oct 1, 2008
A disruptive technology is defined "as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable -- even if temporary -- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of U.S. national power," the report said. Those elements are geopolitical, military, economic or social cohesion. It identified six technologies that have that potential.
Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.
Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.
Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.
Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.
Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.
Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.
Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.
Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.
Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.
Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.
The U.S. population will get older, but not to the extent of Western Europe, Japan and China, where the the ratio of young productive people to seniors will begin to approach 1-3. "That is a pretty heavy burden on economic growth," Fingar said.
The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.
Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.
"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.
The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.
Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.
"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.
Aug 25, 2008
At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com
At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com: "The participants were not particularly optimistic. They presented data showing that the boom in biofuels was depleting Southeast Asian rain forests, that “bot herders” — computer hackers for hire — were hijacking millions of computers, and that the lack of progress over handling nuclear waste was both hampering the revival of nuclear energy and adding to terrorism risks."
Aug 10, 2008
What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila
What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila: ". Restructuring of American Business
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best."
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company ca n make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing - outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best."
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company ca n make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing - outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.
Jul 30, 2008
Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia
Quarter of the planet to be online by 2012 - Internet - iTnews Australia: "According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet.According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet."
Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times
Toward a Type 1 civilization - Los Angeles Times: "Toward a Type 1 civilization
Along with energy policy, political and economic systems must also evolve.
By Michael Shermer
July 22, 2008
Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium."
We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain.
In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.
Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0.
Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1.
Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization.
We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like:
Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.
Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy.
Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor.
Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.
Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.
Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.
Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy.
Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.
Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.
Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.
The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens.
For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward.
Along with energy policy, political and economic systems must also evolve.
By Michael Shermer
July 22, 2008
Our civilization is fast approaching a tipping point. Humans will need to make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make that transformation will doom us to the endless political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for the last half-millennium."
We need new technologies to be sure, but without evolved political and economic systems, we cannot become what we must. And what is that? A Type 1 civilization. Let me explain.
In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.
Based on our energy efficiency at the time, in 1973 the astronomer Carl Sagan estimated that Earth represented a Type 0.7 civilization on a Type 0 to Type 1 scale. (More current assessments put us at 0.72.) As the Kardashevian scale is logarithmic -- where any increase in power consumption requires a huge leap in power production -- we have a ways before 1.0.
Fossil fuels won't get us there. Renewable sources such as solar, wind and geothermal are a good start, and coupled to nuclear power could eventually get us to Type 1.
Yet the hurdles are not solely -- or even primarily -- technological ones. We have a proven track record of achieving remarkable scientific solutions to survival problems -- as long as there is the political will and economic opportunities that allow the solutions to flourish. In other words, we need a Type 1 polity and economy, along with the technology, in order to become a Type 1 civilization.
We are close. If we use the Kardashevian scale to plot humankind's progress, it shows how far we've come in the long history of our species from Type 0, and it leads us to see what a Type 1 civilization might be like:
Type 0.1: Fluid groups of hominids living in Africa. Technology consists of primitive stone tools. Intra-group conflicts are resolved through dominance hierarchy, and between-group violence is common.
Type 0.2: Bands of roaming hunter-gatherers that form kinship groups, with a mostly horizontal political system and egalitarian economy.
Type 0.3: Tribes of individuals linked through kinship but with a more settled and agrarian lifestyle. The beginnings of a political hierarchy and a primitive economic division of labor.
Type 0.4: Chiefdoms consisting of a coalition of tribes into a single hierarchical political unit with a dominant leader at the top, and with the beginnings of significant economic inequalities and a division of labor in which lower-class members produce food and other products consumed by non-producing upper-class members.
Type 0.5: The state as a political coalition with jurisdiction over a well-defined geographical territory and its corresponding inhabitants, with a mercantile economy that seeks a favorable balance of trade in a win-lose game against other states.
Type 0.6: Empires extend their control over peoples who are not culturally, ethnically or geographically within their normal jurisdiction, with a goal of economic dominance over rival empires.
Type 0.7: Democracies that divide power over several institutions, which are run by elected officials voted for by some citizens. The beginnings of a market economy.
Type 0.8: Liberal democracies that give the vote to all citizens. Markets that begin to embrace a nonzero, win-win economic game through free trade with other states.
Type 0.9: Democratic capitalism, the blending of liberal democracy and free markets, now spreading across the globe through democratic movements in developing nations and broad trading blocs such as the European Union.
Type 1.0: Globalism that includes worldwide wireless Internet access, with all knowledge digitized and available to everyone. A completely global economy with free markets in which anyone can trade with anyone else without interference from states or governments. A planet where all states are democracies in which everyone has the franchise.
The forces at work that could prevent us from making the great leap forward to a Type 1 civilization are primarily political and economic. The resistance by nondemocratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most politicians, intellectuals and citizens.
For thousands of years, we have existed in a zero-sum tribal world in which a gain for one tribe, state or nation meant a loss for another tribe, state or nation -- and our political and economic systems have been designed for use in that win-lose world. But we have the opportunity to live in a win-win world and become a Type 1 civilization by spreading liberal democracy and free trade, in which the scientific and technological benefits will flourish. I am optimistic because in the evolutionist's deep time and the historian's long view, the trend lines toward achieving Type 1 status tick inexorably upward.
The bulk of the book is devoted to demonstrating the accuracy of this contention through
three historical examples of states that had become Great Powers by following a sound and
balanced geostrategy, but failed to adjust to the sixteenth century geopolitical shift by becoming
undisciplined, complacent, or fearful. In the case of Venice, the doges initially made good use of
the city’s favorable location between Latin Christendom and the Byzantine Empire to become the
western terminus of Eurasian trade networks and the main supplier of Asian goods to the whole
of Western Europe. By establishing control over a network of bases and harbors in the Adriatic
and the Aegean in the eleventh century, Venice ensured its rise as the premier Great Power in the
Mediterranean.
three historical examples of states that had become Great Powers by following a sound and
balanced geostrategy, but failed to adjust to the sixteenth century geopolitical shift by becoming
undisciplined, complacent, or fearful. In the case of Venice, the doges initially made good use of
the city’s favorable location between Latin Christendom and the Byzantine Empire to become the
western terminus of Eurasian trade networks and the main supplier of Asian goods to the whole
of Western Europe. By establishing control over a network of bases and harbors in the Adriatic
and the Aegean in the eleventh century, Venice ensured its rise as the premier Great Power in the
Mediterranean.
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But no situation can be described as unique, since the words with which we describe it are categories which presume features common to some larger group, hence to some continuing structure that ap pears to be stable. And at the same time no truths hold forever because the world is of course inevitably and eternally changing. We have indeed to work with temporarily useful structures/categories that bear within them the processes by which they get transformed into other structures/categories"
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "But, as we have come collectively to know quite clearly in the last few decades, there exists more than one cleavage in any historical system. I therefore began to spend energy trying to analyze which ere the major cleavages in the modern world-system, how they differed the ones from the others, how they related to each other, and how each cleavage limited the effects of each other. I have made an effort to piece apart what I think of as the five major cleavages of our modern world: race, nation, class, ethnicity, and gender"
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein
Yale Sociology » Immanuel Wallerstein: "In the course of my quest, I initially thought that the debate was merely about the empirical analysis of contemporary reality, but I soon became aware that it was a question too of the very tools of analysis. The ones I had been taught seemed to me to circumscribe our empirical analyses and distort our in terpretations. Slowly, over some twenty years, my views evolved, until by the 1970s I began to say that I was trying to look at the world from a perspective that I called “world-systems analysis.” This involved two major intellectual decisions. The first was that the choice of the ‘unit of analysis” was crucial. I became increasingly aware that all of modern social science presumes that the state boundaries constitute the boundaries of “societies.” I came to be convinced that this was a very misleading assumption. Instead, I came to argue that the only plausible unit of analysis was a “world-system,” or more generally, an “historical social system.”"
Jul 28, 2008
'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech
'Fuel battery' could take cars beyond petrol - tech - 25 July 2008 - New Scientist Tech: "A new approach to storing electrical energy can store more energy than gasoline in the same volume, and could help extend the range of electric vehicles. But some experts say other approaches are more practical.The biggest technological hurdle facing electric vehicles is their range. Even the best rechargeable batteries cannot match the density of energy stored in a fuel tank.Combining electric power with a combustion engine to make a hybrid electric vehicle sidesteps that problem. But a new take on electrical power storage that is part battery, part chemical fuel cell could ditch gasoline for good.The new design stores energy more densely than petrol, and was conceived by Stuart Licht of the University"
Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred
Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios: The brave new world of e-hatred: "“NATION shall speak peace unto nation.” Eighty years ago, Britain’s state broadcasters adopted that motto to signal their hope that modern communications would establish new bonds of friendship between people divided by culture, political boundaries and distance.
For those who still cling to that ideal, the latest trends on the internet are depressing. Of course, as anyone would expect, governments use their official websites to boast about their achievements and to argue their corner—usually rather clunkily—in disputes about territory, symbols or historical rights and wrongs.
What is much more disturbing is the way in which skilled young surfers—the very people whom the internet might have liberated from the shackles of state-sponsored ideologies—are using the wonders of electronics to stoke hatred between countries, races or religions. Sometimes these cyber-zealots seem to be acting at their governments’ behest—but often they are working on their own,"
For those who still cling to that ideal, the latest trends on the internet are depressing. Of course, as anyone would expect, governments use their official websites to boast about their achievements and to argue their corner—usually rather clunkily—in disputes about territory, symbols or historical rights and wrongs.
What is much more disturbing is the way in which skilled young surfers—the very people whom the internet might have liberated from the shackles of state-sponsored ideologies—are using the wonders of electronics to stoke hatred between countries, races or religions. Sometimes these cyber-zealots seem to be acting at their governments’ behest—but often they are working on their own,"
The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent
The Analyst: Keeping ahead of a changing world - Invest & Save, Money - The Independent: "Consumer trends can simplistically be broken down to three parts; demographics, health and wellness and aspiration. Looking first at demographics we see the re-emergence of a regular theme in my column: urbanisation. Today, 49 per cent of the world's population lives in towns and cities and by 2030 this is forecast to grow to 60 per cent. In addition, the global urban population will grow from 3 billion in 2003 to 5 billion by 2030. These changing demographics will affect the way wages grow and living standards change, providing fantastic opportunities for the likes of convenience stores, branded products, healthcare providers and retailers."
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "Mr. Penn notes that a 2001 bipartisan commission “said that the greatest threat to American national security — behind only terrorist attacks — was the threat of failing to provide sufficient math and science education in America.”"
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times
Why There’s Strength in Small Numbers - New York Times: "The thesis of Mr. Penn’s book is that “you can’t understand the world anymore only in terms of ‘megatrends,’ or universal experience. In today’s splintered society, if you want to operate successfully, you have to understand the intense identity groups that are growing and moving, fast and furious, in crisscrossing directions.” In the United States, he notes, these society-changing “microtrends” can involve as few as three million people, about 1 percent of the population."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "The book’s underlying philosophy is quite refined. The argument is that societal fragmentation occurs because, in a post-modernist and individualistic world, people are beginning to make personal choices. In the process, many niches are being created, and the world is becoming more complex.
One of the important things that lend credence to the 75 microtrends mentioned is the amount of research Penn has done. He always provides bars and statistics to back up his identification of each mini segment of society. Each essay also starts off with how these small movements first gain their momentum, as well as their effects on society and the world as a whole."
One of the important things that lend credence to the 75 microtrends mentioned is the amount of research Penn has done. He always provides bars and statistics to back up his identification of each mini segment of society. Each essay also starts off with how these small movements first gain their momentum, as well as their effects on society and the world as a whole."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "The book comprises concise essays that are divided into 15 main areas of life: Love, Work, Religion, Health, Family, Politics, Teens, Food and Drink, Lifestyle, Money and Class, Fashion, Technology, Entertainment, Education, and International. Each of these areas has four to five subgroups, for a grand total of 75 essays. To say the least, the book’s scale is large."
Small numbers, big influence
Small numbers, big influence: "MARK Penn’s Microtrends is intriguing because it seems so counter intuitive. Our instinct tells us that the world is dominated by big trends, but, like Stephen Levitt in Freakonomics, Penn argues that these overspanning trends can sometimes be merely a misguided form of conventional wisdom. He points out that to really understand developments that change the world, we have to look at underlying facts, especially through numbers and statistics.
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."
Jul 14, 2008
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "There are grounds for hope, however. The use of renewable energy is growing, and China's largest car maker plans for half its cars to be hybrids within two years. But the report's authors say that governments are not up to the job: 'Many of the world's decision-making processes are inefficient, slow and ill-informed, especially when given the new demands from increasing complexity [and] globalisation.' They call on world leaders to do more long-term planning, and to join in global approaches to the interlocking crises. 'Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organised crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded.'"
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Yet nuclear power – the solution increasingly favoured by governments, which are planning to add another 350 reactors to the 438 already operating around the world – will not do the job. 'For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants would have to be built, at $5-15bn per plant, over 15 years – and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050.'
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "And this is happening in a world that is already becoming freer and more democratic. Over the past 30 years, the number of free countries has more than doubled from 43 to 90, it reports, while those that are partly free increased from 46 to 60. Just over one-third of humanity still lives in the 43 countries with authoritarian regimes, but half of these people are in China."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Life expectancy and literacy rates are increasing worldwide, while infant mortality and the number of armed conflicts have been falling fast. Per capita income has been growing strongly enough to cut poverty by more than half by 2015 – except, importantly, in Africa.
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "It goes on. 'This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the internet, international trade, language translation and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve [its] prospects. It is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve [them].'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "However, it notes that 'Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges.'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions, says this report published by the Millennium Project, a global participatory futures research think tank affiliated with the World Federation of UN Associations."
Jul 11, 2008
Bloomberg.com: News
Bloomberg.com: News: "Obesity in China Doubled in 11 Years With Rising Prosperity
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
Jul 9, 2008
HealthMap | Global disease alert map
HealthMap | Global disease alert map: "HealthMap
Global disease alert map"
Global disease alert map"
Jul 2, 2008
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "In the history of life on Earth the human species is a very latecomer. But the human impact on the Earth has slowly and then rapidly increased, most of all in the last 250 years, to what has been widely predicted as an unsustainable level in just a few generations hence.
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "Global catastrophes have occurred many times in history, even if we only count disasters causing more than 10 million deaths. A very partial list of examples includes the An Shi Rebellion (756-763), the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), and the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the native American population through smallpox and other diseases following the arrival of European colonizers. Many others could be added to this list."
Dr Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity, has co-edited a book called Global Catastrophic Risks, to be published by OUP in June 2008. The book
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
Jun 30, 2008
Science Journal - WSJ.com
Science Journal - WSJ.com: "In ways we are only beginning to understand, the synapses and neurons in the human nervous system work in concert to perceive the world around them, to learn from their perceptions, to remember important experiences, to plan ahead, and to decide and act on incomplete information. In a rudimentary way, they predetermine our choices."
Jun 28, 2008
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet, with the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, according to a report by Jupiter Research.
Asia will have the highest online growth rate compared to other regions in the world, ans a large pool of sophisticated online users."
Asia will have the highest online growth rate compared to other regions in the world, ans a large pool of sophisticated online users."
Jun 23, 2008
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Christian Science Monitor, June 18, 2008
A simple new low-cost solar dish developed by MIT students produces steam heat for less than the cost of heat from oil or natural gas, according to the MIT team.
The steam heat can be used cost effectively for manufacturing, food pasteurization, and heating buildings.
A simple new low-cost solar dish developed by MIT students produces steam heat for less than the cost of heat from oil or natural gas, according to the MIT team.
The steam heat can be used cost effectively for manufacturing, food pasteurization, and heating buildings.
New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists
New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists: "A new discovery by a scientist from The University of Western Ontario provides conclusive evidence which supports decades-old evolutionary doctrines long accepted as fact."
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