Swarm Behavior - National Geographic Magazine

Swarm Behavior - National Geographic Magazine: "Where this intelligence comes from raises a fundamental question in nature: How do the simple actions of individuals add up to the complex behavior of a group? How do hundreds of honeybees make a critical decision about their hive if many of them disagree? What enables a school of herring to coordinate its movements so precisely it can change direction in a flash, like a single, silvery organism? The collective abilities of such animals—none of which grasps the big picture, but each of which contributes to the group's success—seem miraculous even to the biologists who know them best. Yet during the past few decades, researchers have come up with intriguing insights. "

Wired Science - Wired Blogs

Wired Science - Wired Blogs: "Synthetic biology -- the emerging science of creating genomes, cellular components and even whole cellular organisms from scratch -- confronts regulators with some tricky problems. At the moment, the research and its products aren't exactly unregulated -- the NIH has rules for conducting biotech research, the FDA would still evaluate a drug made by synthetic organism, the EPA would oversee the potential release of synthetic organisms into the environment -- but it's not entirely clear whether synthetic biology could pose new, unexpected challenges."

Humanity gobbles a quarter of nature's resources - earth - 02 July 2007 - New Scientist Environment

Humanity gobbles a quarter of nature's resources - earth - 02 July 2007 - New Scientist Environment: "'If we want full-scale replacement of fossil fuels by biofuels, this would have dramatic implications for ecosystems,' says Haberl. He warns that some projections foresee four or fivefold increases in biofuel production.

This would mean clearing what remains of the world’s rainforests in countries such as Brazil and Argentina.

As well as wiping out thousands of species, this would have devastating effects on the climate, he argues. Unlike farmland, forests help to seed rainfall because they have high evaporation rates. 'The less evaporation there is, the less rainfall there is and the whole system dries up,' "

World Oil Supplies to Run out Faster than Expected – (Independent – June 14, 2007)
http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece
BP's recently published study shows that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry. However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives. Clearly the experts are not all on the same page in this matter. However, everyone agrees that demand is surging.

100 Most Endangered Sites – (Reuters – June 9, 2007)
http://news.aol.com/topnews/articles/_a/group-names-100-most-endangered-sites/
20070608175609990001?cid=2359
Rising seas, spreading deserts, intensifying weather and other harbingers of climate change are threatening cultural landmarks from Canada to Antarctica, according to the World Monuments Fund. This year's list of the 100 most endangered sites includes 59 countries. The United States is home to more listed sites than any other country with seven sites noted.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
In 100 billion years, everything we can see except local galaxies will have been pushed so far away by the universe's expansion that all other sources of light will have been redshifted beyond our ability to detect them, according to a paper that will appear in October.

All matter other than that in our galaxy will be invisible, and our view of the universe will look like it did in the pre-Hubble days. The cosmic microwave background, which has provided our most detailed understanding of the Big Bang, will also be gone.

International Relations and Security Network ISN - Security Watch - ISN - Global News Headlines

International Relations and Security Network ISN - Security Watch - ISN - Global News Headlines: "Global News Headlines
Newstin Logo

The ISN has partnered with Newstin.com to develop a series of news aggregation feeds on key issues in security, defense and international affairs."

What are NCDs?

NCDs have been called diseases of civilization, Western diseases, diseases of affluence and lifestyle diseases. Simply put, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are chronic, non-infectious diseases that have gained in prevalence with the advancement of medicine, Western diets, tobacco use and sedentary modern lifestyles. NCDs are not curable, but they are preventable and can be manageable. The most common NCDs include cardiovascular disease (heart diseases), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), hypertension, diabetes mellitus Type 2, chronic respiratory disease and those cancers linked to tobacco use, poor diet and lack of activity.

Environmental Factors

Modernization, urbanization, technological advancements and medical discoveries have brought about a huge shift in human lifestyles. Medical advancements via disease vaccination and treatment have increased the average lifespan by (in many cases) virtually eliminating the risk of contracting a non-chronic, infectious disease. At the same time, modern conveniences have allowed humans to become more and more sedentary. What were once characteristic of lifestyles of only the most affluent sectors of society (lower risk of death by infectious disease, sedentary pursuits, lack of physical exercise, sugary diet and high fat consumption) have become commonplace to society at all levels.

Implications

The world has undergone an epidemiological shift where the average person is much more likely to develop an NCD than contract a fatal infectious disease. NCDs, a product of the modern global lifestyle, are now the major cause of deaths across the globe.

Foreign Policy: The Ideology of Development

Foreign Policy: The Ideology of Development: "What explains the appeal of development ideology despite its dismal track record? Ideologies usually arise in response to tragic situations in which people are hungry for clear and comprehensive solutions. The inequality of the Industrial Revolution bred Marxism, and the backwardness of Russia its Leninist offshoot. Germany’s defeat and demoralization in World War I birthed Nazism. Economic hardship accompanied by threats to identity led to both Christian and Islamic fundamentalism. Similarly, development ideology appeals to those who want a definitive, complete answer to the tragedy of world poverty and inequality."

Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil

Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil: "The thin layer of topsoil that covers the planet’s land surface is the foundation of civilization. This soil, measured in inches over much of the earth, was formed over long stretches of geological time as new soil formation exceeded the natural rate of erosion. As soil accumulated over the eons, it provided a medium in which plants could grow. In turn, plants protect the soil from erosion. Human activity is disrupting this relationship."

Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil

Earth Policy Institute Book Byte - Losing Soil: "Now fast forward to a trip in 2002 by a United Nations team to assess the food situation in Lesotho, a small country of 2 million people imbedded within South Africa. Their finding was straightforward: “Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future; crop production is declining and could cease altogether over large tracts of the country if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation, and the decline in soil fertility.” Michael Grunwald reports in the Washington Post that nearly half of the children under five in Lesotho are stunted physically. “Many,” he says, “are too weak to walk to school.”"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/virtual_human_dc
Canadian researchers have developed the most detailed model of a human yet, a movable "4D" image that doctors can use to plan complex surgery or show patients what ailments look like inside their bodies. Called CAVEman, the larger-than-life computer image encompasses more than 3,000 distinct body parts, all viewed in a booth that gives the image height, width and depth. CAVEman also plots the passage of time -- the fourth "D."

Scientists Report Virgin Shark Birth – (CNN – May 23, 2007)
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/05/23/virgin.sharks.ap/index.html
Female sharks can fertilize their own eggs and give birth without sperm from males, according to a new study of the asexual reproduction of a hammerhead shark in a U.S. zoo. Asexual reproduction is common in some insect species, rarer in reptiles and fish, and has never been documented in mammals. The list of animals documented as capable of this has grown along with the numbers being raised in captivity -- but until now, sharks were not considered a likely candidate.

WFS Futurist Update

WFS Futurist Update: "The United States is no longer the biggest air polluter in the world. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China surpassed U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions by 8% in 2006. Other top emitters are the European Union, India, and Russia.

The growth of China's manufacturing sector, driven by increasing demand for Chinese goods globally, is one cause of this surge in emissions."

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
Vision Robotics, a San Diego company, is working on a pair of robots that would trundle through orchards plucking oranges, apples or other fruit from the trees.



In a few years, troops of these machines could perform the tedious and labor-intensive task of fruit picking that currently employs thousands of migrant workers each season.

Computers and the Internet - Hackers - Homeland Security - Cybersecurity - Russia - United States - New York Times

Computers and the Internet - Hackers - Homeland Security - Cybersecurity - Russia - United States - New York Times: "Whatever form cyberwar might take, most experts have concluded that what happened in Estonia earlier this month was not an example.

The cyberattacks in Estonia were apparently sparked by tensions over the country’s plan to remove Soviet-era war memorials. Estonian officials initially blamed Russia for the attacks, suggesting that its state-run computer networks blocked online access to banks and government offices.

The Kremlin denied the accusations. And Estonian officials ultimately accepted the idea that perhaps this attack was the work of tech-savvy activists, or “hactivists,” who have been mounting similar attacks against just about everyone for several years."

T H E H U M A N S E C U R I T Y B R I E F
http://www.humansecurityinstitute.ca/images/stories/HSBrief2006/figures.html

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "There is a saying in heuristics and biases that people do not evaluate events, but descriptions of events – what is called non-extensional reasoning. The extension of humanity’s extinction includes the death of yourself, of your friends, of your family, of your loved ones, of your city, of your country, of your political fellows. Yet people who would take great offense at a proposal to wipe the country of Britain from the map, to kill every member of the Democratic Party in the U.S., to turn the city of Paris to glass – who would feel still greater horror on hearing the doctor say that their child had cancer – these people will discuss the extinction of humanity with perfect calm. “Extinction of humanity”, as words on paper, appears in fictional novels, or is discussed in philosophy books – it belongs to a different context than the Spanish flu. "

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "In addition to standard biases, I have personally observed what look like harmful modes of thinking specific to existential risks. The Spanish flu of 1918 killed 25-50 million people. World War II killed 60 million people. 10^7 is the order of the largest catastrophes in humanity’s written history. Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the entire human species, seem to trigger a different mode of thinking - enter into a “separate magisterium”."

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk

The Singularity Institute Blog : Blog Archive : Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Biases, and Global Risk: "One of many biases not discussed in this chapter describes the biasing effect of not knowing what we do not know."

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
It is a commonplace complaint among commentators on the human condition that technology seems to have outstripped moral inquiry. As Isaac Asimov put it, "The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." But in the past decade, a realization that technology can after all be a force for the greater good has come about. The freedom of communication brought about by the Internet has been of enormous value in opening eyes and aspirations to possibilities yet to come.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
In a wealthy country, natural resources such as farmland are worth more but only by a small amount, mostly because they can be more efficiently used. The fraction of total wealth contributed by natural resources in a wealthy country is only 2 percent, as compared to 26 percent in a poor one. The vast majority of the wealth in high-income countries is intangible: it is further broken down by the report to show that roughly half of it represents people's education and skills, and the other half the value of the institutions—in other words, the opportunities the society gives its citizens to turn efforts into value.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
Corporate AIs will almost certainly start out self-interested, and evolution favors effective self-interest. It has been suggested by commentators such as Steven Pinker, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Jeff Hawkins, that AIs would not have the "baser" human instincts built in and thus would not need moral restraints. But it should be clear they could be programmed with baser instincts, and it seems likely that corporate ones will be aggressive, opportunistic, and selfish, and that military ones will be programmed with different but equally disturbing motivations.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
Third, intelligence does not spring fully formed like Athena from the forehead of Zeus. Even we humans, with the built-in processing power of a supercomputer at our disposal, take years to mature. Again, once mature, a human requires about a decade to become really expert in any given field, including AI programming. More to the point, it takes the scientific community some extended period to develop a theory, then the engineering community some more time to put it into practice. Even if we had a complete and valid theory of mind, which we do not, putting it into software would take years; and the early versions would be incomplete and full of bugs. Human developers will need years of experience with early AIs before they get it right. Even then they will have systems that are the equivalent of slow, inexperienced humans.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
Most existing AI research is completely pragmatic, without any reference to moral structures in cognitive architectures. That is to be expected: just getting the darn thing to be intelligent is as hard a problem as we can handle now, and there is time enough to worry about the brakes after the engine is working. As I noted before, much of the most advanced research is sponsored by the military or corporations. In the military, the notion of an autonomous machine being able to question its orders on moral grounds is anathema. In corporate industry, the top goal seems likely to be the financial benefit of the company. Thus, the current probable sources of AI will not adhere to a universally adopted philanthropic formulation, such as Asimov's Three Laws. The reasonable assumption then is that a wide variety of AIs with differing goal structures will appear in the coming decades.

KurzweilAI.net

KurzweilAI.net
Over the past decade, the concept of a technological singularity has become better understood. The basic idea is that the process of creating AI and other technological change will be accelerated by AI itself, so that sometime in the coming century the pace of change will become so rapid that we mere mortals won't be able to keep up, much less control it.

NOAA Home Page - Earth Observing System (GEOSS)

NOAA Home Page - Earth Observing System (GEOSS): "More than 60 countries, the European Commission and more than 40 international organizations are supporting the development of a global Earth Observation System that, over the next decade, will revolutionize the understanding of Earth and how it works. With benefits as broad as the planet itself, the U.S.-led initiative promises to make people and economies around the globe healthier, safer and better equipped to manage basic daily needs. The aim is to make 21st century technology as interrelated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects, providing the science on which sound policy and decision-making must be built."

If It Feels Good to Be Good, It Might Be Only Natural - washingtonpost.com

If It Feels Good to Be Good, It Might Be Only Natural - washingtonpost.com: "Marc Hauser, another Harvard researcher, has used cleverly designed psychological experiments to study morality. He said his research has found that people all over the world process moral questions in the same way, suggesting that moral thinking is intrinsic to the human brain, rather than a product of culture. It may be useful to think about morality much like language, in that its basic features are hard-wired, Hauser said. Different cultures and religions build on that framework in much the way children in different cultures learn different languages using the same neural machinery."

If It Feels Good to Be Good, It Might Be Only Natural - washingtonpost.com

If It Feels Good to Be Good, It Might Be Only Natural - washingtonpost.com: "Such studies point to a pattern, Greene said, showing 'competing forces that may have come online at different points in our evolutionary history. A basic emotional response is probably much older than the ability to evaluate costs and benefits.'"

Foreign Affairs - The French Exception - Sophie Meunier

Foreign Affairs - The French Exception - Sophie Meunier: "The potential losers from free trade are no longer special-interest groups but global causes: the environment, democracy, and human rights."

THE CENTURY OF ROOTS

THE CENTURY OF ROOTS: "In 'Post Peak', all of our Systems of Habits are in mortal danger. Due to the relative cheapness of crude oil (in relation to other, more expensive daily needs), people don't exactly realize the pivotal role played by its products in their daily routines --- as these products has invaded every nook and cranny of our modern life. It is only when the brakes will be pulled (as they inevitably will have to be), that the general public will come to gradually realize the critical importance of 'Black Gold' --- which currently provides no less than two-fifths of world energy --- and of 'Energy' in general, in their living habits. "

THE CENTURY OF ROOTS

THE CENTURY OF ROOTS: "After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based. It will come to place pressure upon the use of all other sources of energy --- be it natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and all types of sundry renewables especially biofuels. It will eventually come to affect everything else under the sun…"

21 Solutions to Save the World:A Patently Simple Idea

21 Solutions to Save the World:A Patently Simple Idea: "The second area of progress concerns the lack of incentive for drug companies to invent new cures for diseases that affect the poor. Practically all of the world’s drug development addresses the health concerns of rich people: Of the 1,233 drugs licensed worldwide between 1975 and 1997, only 13 targeted tropical diseases. "

Research monkey’s genetic code deciphered - Science - MSNBC.com

Research monkey’s genetic code deciphered - Science - MSNBC.com: "Macaques branched off from the ape family tree far earlier, about 25 million years ago — yet still share about 93 percent of their DNA with humans, the new work shows.
Here’s the key: Six million years isn’t long in evolutionary history. So if a particular gene is different in the human and the chimp, it’s impossible to know which version came first. Add these more ancient Old World monkeys into the mix, however, and it may be possible to tease out genetic changes that were important for key traits of modern humans, such as higher brain power and walking upright.
“That does point us, in a much more powerful way, to answering the question, ’What does humanness mean?’ at the DNA level,” said Collins, director of NIH’s National Human Genome Research Institute."

Farhang Jahanpour, Islam and Human Rights

Farhang Jahanpour, Islam and Human Rights: "The military as an instrument of mass killing is a waste institution - humans, energy, oil, metals, scientific and technical skills, money - it consumes all and restores nothing to the resources of the planet. "

: "'The future is process, not a destination.' -- Bruce Sterling The future is not the end of the story -- people won't reach the 'future' and declare victory. Ten years from now has its own ten years out, and so on; people of tomorrow will be looking at their own tomorrows. The picture of the future offered by foresight consultants, scenario planners, and futurists of all stripes should never be a snapshot, but a frame from a movie, with connections to the present and pathways to the days and years to come."

: "The future is usually the present, only moreso. Conversely, don't expect changes to happen quickly and universally. The details will vary, but most of the time, the underlying behaviors and practices will remain consistent. Most people (in the US, at least) watch TV, drive a car, and go to work -- even if the TV is high definition satellite, the car is a hybrid, and work is web programming."

: "'Prediction is very hard, especially when it's about the future.' -- Yogi Berra Completely accurate foresight is a rare thing; most of the time, good futurism means getting key elements right, even if the superficial details are wrong. Predictions based on physical principles and scientific knowledge tend to do better than those based on 'trendspotting' and 'cool hunting,' and are more likely to be corroborated by other specialists. In every case, however, the most important question to ask is 'why?' Why would the suggested change happen? Why would people make the predicted choice? Why would we see this particular outcome?"

Does Technology Drive History? - The MIT Press

Does Technology Drive History? - The MIT Press: "These thirteen essays explore a crucial historical question that has been notoriously hard to pin down: To what extent, and by what means, does a society's technology determine its political, social, economic, and cultural forms?

Karl Marx launched the modern debate on determinism with his provocative remark that 'the hand-mill gives you society with the feudal lord; the steam-mill, society with the industrial capitalist,' and a classic article by Robert Heilbroner (reprinted here) renewed the debate within the context of the history of technology. This book clarifies the debate and carries it forward."

Responsible Nanotechnology: Congress and the Singularity

Responsible Nanotechnology: Congress and the Singularity: "The first is that continued material demands and competitive pressures will continue to drive technology forward. Second, at some point artificial intelligence advances to a point where computers enhance and accelerate scientific discovery and technological change. In other words, intelligent machines start to produce discoveries that are too complex for humans. Finally, there is an assumption that solutions to most of today’s problems including material scarcity, human health, and environmental degradation can be solved by technology, if not by us, then by the computers we eventually develop."

Responsible Nanotechnology: Congress and the Singularity

Responsible Nanotechnology: Congress and the Singularity: "Enhanced abilities to understand and manipulate matter at the molecular and atomic levels promise a wave of significant new technologies over the next five decades. Dramatic breakthroughs will occur in diverse areas such as medicine, communications, computing, energy, and robotics. These changes will generate large amounts of wealth and force wrenching changes in existing markets and institutions."

GLOBAL HISTORY

GLOBAL HISTORY: "Obviously, this process is wrong: Firstly, the productive forces (technical progress) have to be invented. It means that individual consciousness is at the beginning of the process and not at its end! Secondly, these productive forces can determine some social classes just like the wind 'determines' the layers of a cliff. Anyway, these social classes do not determine anything. They are just passive like our cliff layers. Once again, it is the men consciousness which animates these classes through political or institutional changes.
Just imagine that all the productive forces (Tools and other manufactured goods) are suddenly destroyed. Let 'us suppose that the inhabitants are well educated (with scientific and technical knowledge's). Be sure that all the productive's forces will be soon restored. On the other hand, imagine that a no-educated tribe suddenly occupies an industrial state. Do you imagine that the existing productive forces, acting by themselves, will change the mind of the no-educated tribe? Be sure that all the industrial network will be soon completely destroyed!
It means that knowledge, and more largely the spirit, determine the productive forces and not inversely. It means that creativity ( And so Human consciousness) is the real driver of human History."

GLOBAL HISTORY

GLOBAL HISTORY: "Another picture could take in account the evolution of the manufactured products toward complexity. We use to distinguish the prehistoric ages according to their tools (Stone, age, Iron age and so on). Now, let's us imagine a museum with all the manufactured products since the beginning of history. From 4000 BCE to 1800 AD, you will observe quite the same tools with regard to their complexity. For example, a light Roman chariot and a stage coach does not differ very much. Of course, there are many tiny improvements between the former and the latter. However, they all belong to the same 'age'. Today, a jet plane cannot be compared with any means of transportation produced in the past. It means that our jet plane belongs to a new 'age'"

GLOBAL HISTORY

GLOBAL HISTORY: "1-Manufactured products: Evolution in index base 100 in year 1900
Years Index
1800 30
1900 100
1950 600
2000 4500

2-World population: Evolution in millions
Years world population
1000 300
1500 500
1800 950
1900 1650
1950 2500
2000 6200 "

Learning from Failed Political Leadership — HBS Working Knowledge

Learning from Failed Political Leadership — HBS Working Knowledge: "Russia is now rearming and will be a major threat in the next decade; China is growing rapidly and modernizing its military as fast as it can, and will be a major threat beginning in about another ten years. Even Europe, which is now trying to move unification forward by anti-Americanism (which we cannot stop, no matter how much we might toe a European line), will become an increasingly aggressive rival as the century lengthens. These threats will take on many forms including terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the breakout of wars with the potential to become nuclear exchanges. America must devise a more realistic and effective foreign policy to avoid becoming ensnared in future global conflicts.Russia is now rearming and will be a major threat in the next decade; China is growing rapidly and modernizing its military as fast as it can, and will be a major threat beginning in about another ten years. Even Europe, which is now trying to move unification forward by anti-Americanism (which we cannot stop, no matter how much we might toe a European line), will become an increasingly aggressive rival as the century lengthens. These threats will take on many forms including terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the breakout of wars with the potential to become nuclear exchanges. America must devise a more realistic and effective foreign policy to avoid becoming ensnared in future global conflicts."

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "The analysis in this essay reveals that there are five main factors that influence a state's strategic behavior: the type of anarchy present in a system, its polarity, the power balance, the geo-political situation and the perception of state leaders. Taking these variables into account, the conclusions drawn differ greatly from Waltz's balance of power theory. They are that a state seems more interested in non-balancing strategic behavior, thereby further destabilizing the balance of power in the system. "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "In amalgamating the viewpoints of the various scholars earlier discussed, this essay argues that when facing a hegemonic threat,16 states in the system have three strategic options from which to choose: balancing, bandwagoning, and withdrawing. In selecting the balancing strategy, a state, either on its own or with others, opposes the hegemonic threat through warfare, political coalitions, and military alliances. In selecting the bandwagoning strategy, a state forms political and military alliances with the hegemon or potential hegemon, thus joining its camp. In selecting the withdrawing strategy, a state joins neither side, and attempts to stay out of the conflict. There are various ways of pursuing a withdrawing strategy. They include: a state's ‘distancing’ itself from the hegemon and its allies, thereby ‘hiding from the threat’; or adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude in order to join in the conflict at the most opportune moment; or assuming the ‘isolationist’ stance of keeping a safe distance and completely ignoring the struggle. In other words, withdrawing encompasses the strategic options external to balancing and bandwagoning that have been raised by various scholars.17 Taking into account the high costs associated with balancing and the advantages of bandwagoning or withdrawing in order to eliminate short-term threats, from a systemic perspective, the latter two strategies are much more common than that of balancing. "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "The main reason for states not pursuing a balancing strategy is its high cost. Most states under most circumstances simply cannot bear the burden, and opt for a less costly strategy. Schroeder believes that when under threat, a state has a number of strategies from which to choose: balancing, hiding, transcending, and bandwagoning. Balancing is actually the least common strategy adopted, and is usually a last resort, while bandwagoning and hiding are far more common.11 "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "Schweller tries to bring the concept of the ‘revisionist state’ back into the language of realism. He does not believe that the world consists of identical states that all seek to maintain the status quo, but that there are state quo states and revisionist states. The former are supporters of the current international system and intent upon ‘preserving their own status and position within the system’. They are satisfied states. The latter are losers under the current arrangement, or sometimes outside of it, and want to revise the existing system.6 Status quo states balance against states and alliances they perceive as a threat to their own security and/or the security of the system as a whole; they are ‘security-maximizing states’. Revisionist states, on the other hand, are primarily concerned with destroying the current order and making additional gains. Many, therefore, choose to bandwagon with revisionist great powers bent on constructing a new international system; they are ‘power-maximizing states’.7 "

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics

In the Shadow of Hegemony: Strategic Choices -- Zongyou 1 (2): 195 -- The Chinese Journal of International Politics: "In today's post-Cold War global environment, the United States (US) has clearly become the dominant power and a hegemonic force. Waltz's theory would predict other states’ attempting to counter US supremacy, thereby leading to a new balance of power in international politics. But this has not been the case; on the contrary, many states have chosen to participate in American power and primacy. Moreover, when reviewing the history of non-European regions, it is clear that balances of power have not frequently occurred. Also, that the existence of hegemonic states or empires is possible within the realm of international politics. During China's Warring States (475–221 BC) period the ultimate result of the ‘seven powers competition’ was not ‘seven powers co-existence’, but the creation of a ‘unified’ empire after the state of Qin had destroyed the other six. "