"Building a Better Business" - Dr Patrick Dixon's new "Futurist" book + $20,000 Challenge: "Corporations face an unprecedented fall in worker motivation in a tight labour market, threatening productivity and profits, warns Europe�s leading Futurist. "...Workplace motivation is falling fast. 90% of 25-35 year olds are looking for a higher purpose at work and six out of ten don’t see any point in what they do. A new generation are asking hard questions about the real value of their jobs.... ’70 % of Britons, and especially managers and senior executives, give time to community causes they are passionate about – and are far more committed to making a difference outside of work than to what they are paid to do....‘Many business executives today can’t connect with the passions of the people they lead. Quarterly results, return on equity and bottom line profit are very poor motivators. Who on earth gets out of bed in the morning to go and make greater shareholder value? ‘Workers are fed up, demoralised by multiple changes and reorganisations, ever greater work demands and by lack of commitment to them as people by those higher up the organisation. ‘Compare all this to the passion the same people have for what they do for free as volunteers. If we could tap just 10% of that same volunteering spirit and connect it to our mission at work, we would see many corporations transformed with higher morale, higher commitment, lower turnover, faster change. ‘

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "If Japan degrades its relationship with South Korea, it risks Seoul improving its relations with Beijing at the expense of Tokyo and Washington. Seoul is facing a population growing more distant from the United States and is seeking to pursue a more independent foreign policy in Asia. Seoul and Beijing are improving their relations. Since Seoul still relies on U.S. military support, it would be an avoidable setback for Japan to alienate South Korea enough for it to move further away from the Japan-U.S. orbit and more toward the Chinese one."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The difficulty for Japan is that its growing nationalism -- necessary for the boosting of its military potential -- infuriates South Koreans, who remember Japan's wartime atrocities on the Korean Peninsula before and during World War II. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "China's size as a country means that if Beijing is able to continue its stable growth as a power, it should supplant Japan's influence in East Asia and force Japan to recognize a debilitating shift in the balance of power. For the United States, it will mean that Japan will be forced to accommodate with China, thus diminishing Washington's influence in East Asia and marking a failure for the Bush administration's current National Security Strategy which argues that in order to contain China, the U.S. 'must build and maintain our defenses beyond challenge.'"

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Washington garrisons its military forces in Japan, and has involved itself in Asian conflicts and affairs in order to keep Japan from falling out of the U.S. sphere of influence and into a Chinese one. The loss of Japan for the United States would count as a major setback for U.S. influence in Asia and for U.S. interests as a whole."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "One of the important reasons behind Japan's military buildup involves China's strengthening position in Asia. As Beijing grows in power and modernizes its military, Tokyo understands this will weaken Japan's own position in East Asia. Japan, which is already isolated politically and geographically in Asia, is watching this change to the power balance with concern. While Japanese leaders are correct in recognizing that the Japanese military will need to become more powerful in light of changes in the regional balance of power, these leaders also need to recognize how important it is to retain strategic allies in East Asia, especially South Korea."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "country's growing nationalism. As the memory of World War II fades, Japanese society is becoming more nationalistic, resulting in Tokyo pushing for an increased military role in the world. Tokyo's nationalistic actions have concerned many of its allies in East Asia, most notably South Korea which is now in a verbal spat with Japan over the preceding concerns."

March 2005, insights, Issue #54: "One drawback of the increasing integration of companies into transnational corporations is that they may pay less tax in countries where they operate. Non-payment of taxes, transfer pricing, and intra-corporate financial flows are costing developing countries billions of dollars a year in lost revenues."

Foreign Policy: Job Description for the Next Pope: "The most reliable demographic projections indicate that Christianity and Islam will continue growing exponentially until the Southern Hemisphere is awash in pentecostal, charismatic, militant, and heavily supernaturalist forms of both religions. Historian Philip Jenkins foresees a world population of 2.6 billion Christians in 2025, mostly concentrated in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Islam is projected to grow at a similar rate in Africa and Asia, with Nigeria alone boasting 150 million Muslims by 2050. European-style Catholicism has long been displaced as the dominant cultural expression of Christianity that is exported globally; it is being eclipsed by new forms of piety and religious solidarity shaped in part by the encounter with Islam. "

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Trends and Facts: Security Redefined: "The �natural resource curse� refers to the tendency of mineral wealth to support corruption and conflict rather than economic growth and development. It can be seen at work in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf nations, and in Angola, Cameroon, Colombia, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Venezuela, among others. It is often aided and abetted by corporations acting with the knowledge of corrupt national governments. In general, oil and other mineral wealth also appear to impede the establishment and preservation of democracy where governments use that wealth to reduce pressure for democratic reform by keeping taxes low and spending high, or alternatively by spending it on strong security apparatus to suppress dissent. "

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Trends and Facts: Security Redefined: "Great powers have sought reliable access to oil since at least 1912, when Great Britain converted its fleet from coal to oil and established a stake in Iraq�s oilfields to ensure the ascendancy of the Royal Navy. Other great powers, including the United States, have also wielded their military and economic strength to secure access to oil supplies, interfering in the affairs of other countries and supporting repressive regimes when useful. The 1981 Carter Doctrine asserted the U.S. right to treat any attempt to control the Persian Gulf as �an assault on the vital interests of the United States.� By one mid-range estimate, the United States spends at least $49 billion every year on the military presence necessary to ensure Middle Eastern oil flows. "

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Trends and Facts: Security Redefined: "�Countries that depend on oil revenues tend to be more authoritarian, more corrupt, more conflict-prone, and less developed than countries with diversified economies.�
Second, oil threatens civil security by undermining peace, civil order, democracy, and human rights in many regions. This effect takes at least three forms: great-power actions, the �natural resource curse,� and terrorism. "

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Trends and Facts: Security Redefined: "First, oil threatens global economic security because it is a finite resource with no clear successor and because the gap between supply and demand is growing. Oil, most of it imported, accounts for a large share of energy budgets in most developed countries: 36 percent in France, 39 percent in the United States, and 49 percent in Japan, for instance. (Developing countries are even more vulnerable because their imports are larger in relation to GDP.) Growing evidence suggests that rising demand, especially from nations such as China and India, will soon permanently outpace supply, leading to a longterm rise in prices. Meanwhile, the exporting nations are dependent in their own way, in that many of them�especially in the Middle East�have become accustomed over the years to the heavy stream of revenues from oil sales and have failed to use those funds to diversify their economies. "

Worldwatch Institute: Global Security: Trends and Facts: Security Redefined: "Industrial civilization is defined by the staggering abundance of energy it uses. The global consumption of useful energy per person is about 13 times higher than in pre-industrial times, even though total population has risen by a factor of 10 in the last 300 years. We have become a �culture of energy consumption.� And to date, most of that energy has come from fossil fuels, of which oil is the most highly prized. Oil saturates every aspect of modern life as a feedstock for countless products as well as an energy source, and has become the most important strategic commodity ever. Yet, at the same time, it has become a liability that threatens global security in three broad ways. "

Foreign Policy: Gang World: "Street gangs are proliferating around the world. The United States has unwittingly spurred this phenomenon by deporting tens of thousands of immigrants with criminal records each year. But that only partly explains how gangs went global. Credit also goes to the Internet, where gangs are staking out turf and spreading their culture online. Gang members may have never heard of globalization, but it is making them stronger"

Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | Wolfowitz the pawn in global games: "Europe's acceptance of Wolfowitz as the next bank president, despite widespread public opposition and private doubts, highlights the underlying common interest of the US and Europe to reserve most of the world's top international posts for Americans or Europeans."

Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | Wolfowitz the pawn in global games: "It is ironic that while the UN security council is likely to be restructured in line with the current distribution of economic power between states, the World Bank and the IMF remain firmly locked into the post-second world war settlement."

OECD Observer: Statistics, knowledge and progress: "Climate change is a good example. Global warming is occurring, but poor data, or misuse of good data, can lead to unhelpful overreaction on the one hand, inaction on the other. Economic growth is another case in point. What does gross domestic product really tell us about economic and social progress? Not much. As the late Robert Kennedy remarked, such an indicator �does not capture the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play � it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.�"

OECD Observer: Statistics, knowledge and progress: "Not necessarily. Statistics are information, but as Albert Einstein put it, �information is not knowledge�. Yet, it is knowledge that leads to good decision-making and spurs progress. Statistics are raw material for the creation of knowledge, just as steel is raw material for manufacturing automobiles. Obviously, the quality of statistics is critical for public policy. Flawed information undermines knowledge, and can lead to poor policy decisions, and undermine progress."

OECD Observer: Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?: "On the other hand, neither GDP nor this balance sheet takes account of environmental degradation, insecurity or inequality. The main obstacle to overcome in deriving a single measure for all these dimensions is finding a convincing proxy price � or imputed price � for each and every component, on top of goods and services. "

OECD Observer: Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?: "First, it is inaccurate to say that GDP does not capture wellbeing. It captures at least the wellbeing that results from the production of goods and services. Indeed, when statisticians quantify the goods and services produced, they take into account their utility to the consumer. Nevertheless, it is true that there are other dimensions to wellbeing which GDP misses."

OECD Observer: Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?: "But, the public is so used to GDP that we sometimes forget how hard it is to accurately sum all of the goods and services produced in a country together, from bricks and tableware to banking and software. First of all, to make such aggregating possible, you need to define what production is and what it is not. Our conventions may sometimes look arbitrary, such as when we exclude the output of domestic work that is carried out in the home. We do not consider, for example, that taking care of one�s own children is production, whereas we do when a hired nanny does the same work."

OECD Observer: Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?: "Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?
Fran�ois Lequiller: If by growth you mean the expansion of output of goods and services, then GDP or preferably real GDP � which measures growth without the effects of inflation � is perfectly satisfactory. It has been built for this purpose. The letter P stands for �Product�, the result of production. Gross Domestic Product is defined as the sum of all goods and services produced in a country over time, without double counting products used in other output. It is a comprehensive measure, covering the production of consumer goods and services, even government services, and investment goods."

OECD Observer: Is GDP a satisfactory measure of growth?: "If ever there was a controversial icon from the statistics world, GDP is it. It measures income, but not equality, it measures growth, but not destruction, and it ignores values like social cohesion and the environment. Yet, governments, businesses and probably most people swear by it."

OECD Observer: Netherlands: "When the current welfare state was built in the 1960s, the Dutch population was young, ethnically homogeneous and living in similar types of households. Today�s welfare arrangements were designed to accommodate the predominant life-cycle pattern of that time: education for the young, then working careers (for men) and running the home (for women), followed by retirement.
Dutch society has radically changed since then. The average skill level has greatly improved, women participate more fully in the labour market, and living arrangements have become more heterogeneous. As a result, individual life cycles are much more varied."

OECD Observer: Netherlands: "Like many OECD countries, the Netherlands is in the middle of a debate on how to amend the welfare state. Trends such as population ageing, globalisation, technological progress and individual freedoms make it necessary to consider changes to the social welfare system that go beyond adjusting benefit rates or sharpening financial incentives. A recent policy initiative by the Dutch government merits attention. We call it the individual life-cycle savings scheme "

Nuclear Weapons: Nuclear proliferation? Despite a number of nuclear
non-proliferation treaties, efforts seem to be headed in the opposite direction: proliferation. The US has in recent months and years
indicated an interest in increasing nuclear weapons. North Korea has admitted to having nuclear weapons, and the Bush Administration is
concerned with Iran. With countries fearing each other, there may be increased calls saying that all countries have a right to nuclear
weapons, not just nuclear energy as current non-proliferation treaties allow.

Gmail - Security Watch Weekly Wrap: 13/05: "The US-led invasion of Afghanistan did nothing to reconstitute the political medium after the fallout of war, and the continued failure of the government in
Kabul to project its influence outside the capital is the structural cause behind the rapid proliferation of opium production.

Europe and VISA: Separated at Birth? - Global Policy Forum - Nations and States: "In the history of the formation of empires and states, every major power � from Spain in the 16th century through France, Britain and the United States in the 19th century to Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union in the 20th century and the United States in the 21st century � has provoked its neighbors to unite against it. But as Europe's strength grows, its neighbours want to join it � rather than balance it. How has Europe pulled this off? "

Europe and VISA: Separated at Birth? - Global Policy Forum - Nations and StatesThe European Union looks a lot like VISA, the credit card network -- both are small, decentralized organizations where power rests with their members. So argues this Globalist piece, which asks an interesting question: how has Europe managed to grow in size and strength without provoking its neighbors into uniting against it? The author argues that this is a singular phenomenon. All throughout history, the emergence of every major power has resulted in neighbors moving to balance that strength. But in Europe's case, the opposite has happened: other countries want to join instead.

Smart Mobs - Book Summary: "Smart mobs emerge when communication and computing technologies amplify human talents for cooperation. The impacts of smart mob technology already appear to be both beneficial and destructive, used by some of its earliest adopters to support democracy and by others to coordinate terrorist attacks. The technologies that are beginning to make smart mobs possible are mobile communication devices and pervasive computing - inexpensive microprocessors embedded in everyday objects and environments. Already, governments have fallen, youth subcultures have blossomed from Asia to Scandinavia, new industries have been born and older industries have launched furious counterattacks."

Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentThe challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met under some scenarios that the MA has considered but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices, that are not currently under way

Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentOver the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel
The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: "The trend toward rapid, global diffusion of technology will continue, although the stepped-up technology revolution will not benefit everyone equally.
Among the drivers of the growing availability of technology will be the growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between developing countries and Western countries, the increasing size of the technologically literate workforce in some developing countries, and efforts by multinational corporations to diversify their high-tech operations. "

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: Some experts believe it is only a matter of time before a new pandemic appears, such as the 1918–1919 influenza virus that killed an estimated 20 million worldwide. Such a pandemic in megacities of the developing world with poor health-care systems—in Sub-Saharan Africa, China, India, Bangladesh or Pakistan—would be devastating and could spread rapidly throughout the world. Globalization would be endangered if the death toll rose into the millions in several major countries and the spread of the disease put a halt to global travel and trade during an extended period, prompting governments to expend enormous resources on overwhelmed health sectors. On the positive side of the ledger, the response to SARS showed that international surveillance and control mechanisms are becoming more adept at containing diseases, and new developments in biotechnologies hold the promise of continued improvement.

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: "The process of globalization, powerful as it is, could be substantially slowed or even stopped. Short of a major global conflict, which we regard as improbable, another large-scale development that we believe could stop globalization would be a pandemic. However, other catastrophic developments, such as terrorist attacks, could slow its speed."

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: Currently, about two-thirds of the world’s population live in countries that are connected to the global economy. Even by 2020, however, the benefits of globalization won’t be global. Over the next 15 years, gaps will widen between those countries benefiting from globalization—economically, technologically, and socially—and those underdeveloped nations or pockets within nations that are left behind. Indeed, we see the next 15 years as a period in which the perceptions of the contradictions and uncertainties of a globalized world come even more to the fore than is the case today.

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: In terms of capital flows, rising Asia may still accumulate large currency reserves—currently $850 billion in Japan, $500 billion in China, $190 billion in Korea, and $120 billion in India, or collectively three-quarters of global reserves—but the percentage held in dollars will fall. A basket of reserve currencies including the yen, renminbi, and possibly rupee probably will become standard practice.
Interest-rate decisions taken by Asian central bankers will impact other global financial markets, including New York and London, and the returns from Asian stock markets are likely to become an increasing global benchmark for portfolio managers.

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: Rising Asia will continue to reshape globalization, giving it less of a “Made in the USA” character and more of an Asian look and feel. At the same time, Asia will alter the rules of the globalizing process. By having the fastest-growing consumer markets, more firms becoming world-class multinationals, and greater S&T stature, Asia looks set to displace Western countries as the focus for international economic dynamism—provided Asia’s rapid economic growth continues.

NIC - Mapping the Global Future: Contradictions of Globalization: "The reach of globalization was substantially broadened during the last 20 years by Chinese and Indian economic liberalization, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the worldwide information technology revolution. Through the next 15 years, it will sustain world economic growth, raise world living standards, and substantially deepen global interdependence. "

Gmail - FUTUREdition Volume 8, Number 5
Software that gives legal advice could shake up the legal profession by dispensing faster and fairer justice. Given the choice, who would you rather trust to safeguard your future: a bloodsucking lawyer or a cold, calculating computer? It is a choice that you may well encounter in the not-too-distant future, as software based on “artificial intelligence” (AI) starts to dispense legal advice. Instead of paying a lawyer by the hour, you will soon have the option of consulting intelligent legal services via the web.

Gmail - FUTUREdition Volume 8, Number 5To combat a shrinking population, a small town in northern Japan has decided to give a cash award to each woman who has a third child.

Economist.com | BRAIN SCAN: "Mr Kurzweil has no time for sceptics who argue that human immortality is impossible, or that mortality is what makes life precious. �That's nonsense,� he says. �What makes the human species unique is that we insist upon going beyond our limitations. We are not staying within the limits of our biology. Life expectancy was 37 in 1800, 45 in 1900 and now it's over 80. Ageing is not a graceful process and death is a great tragedy, a profound loss of knowledge, skill, experience and relationships.� "

Traditional economic theory predicts that capital mobility and international trade will push the world's national economies to one income level. As poorer nations race ahead, richer ones should slow down. Eventually, theory says, national economies would reach equilibrium. The reality of the last few decades, however, defies this notion; most of the poorest economies continue to lag far behind. For 50 years, foreign aid has been the main way the international community has promoted economic development. Yet it has not proven to be a silver bullet.

Headlines for Wednesday, March 30, 2005: "Dow Jones and The Associated Press report that the four-year, $24 million study - the largest-ever to show how people are changing their environment - found that humans had depleted 60 percent of the world's grasslands, forests, farmlands, rivers and lakes. Unless nations adopt more eco-friendly policies, increased human demands for food, clean water and fuels could speed the disappearance of forests, fish and fresh water reserves and lead to more frequent disease outbreaks over the next 50 years, "

Headlines for Wednesday, March 30, 2005: "The study contains what its authors call 'a stark warning' for the entire world. The wetlands, forests, savannahs, estuaries, coastal fisheries and other habitats that recycle air, water and nutrients for all living creatures are being irretrievably damaged. In effect, one species is now a hazard to the other 10 million or so on the planet, and to itself. 'Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted,'"

Headlines for Wednesday, March 30, 2005The human race is living beyond its means. A report [titled “The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report”] backed by 1,360 scientists from 95 countries - some of them world leaders in their fields - today warns that the almost two-thirds of the natural machinery that supports life on Earth is being degraded by human pressure

Headlines for Wednesday, March 30, 2005: "In consultation with other governments and with non-governmental organizations, the G7 countries can provide the catalyst for taking five steps to create a more inclusive, transparent and effective selection process for the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. First, develop job descriptions for the positions, including qualifications and experience. Second, eschew barriers that limit the candidate pool to a certain country (the US in the case of the World Bank) or set of countries ('old' Europe in the case of the IMF). Third, appoint, when needed, an internationally balanced selection committee to evaluate applicants and provide a shortlist for consideration by the boards of the multilateral institutions. Fourth, allow the boards formally to interview the candidates, and fifth, specify a voting process that would select a candidate who commands consensus."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "The Sino-Indian relationship is bound to be one of the most important bilateral relationships in the coming decades simply by the sheer weight of numbers: combined they represent 40 percent of the world's population and their continuing economic growth will project them to the second and third place within the next two decades. How they manage their relationship will have a tremendous impact on peace and stability in the regional and, increasingly, global context. "

Foreign Affairs - North America's Second Decade - Robert A. Pastor: "Summary: In just ten years, NAFTA has created the world's most formidable free trade area. But in the absence of true partnerships and multilateral institutions, movement toward further regional integration has slowed. The United States, Mexico, and Canada have many common interests; they need to pursue them in common ways."