Jun 26, 2009
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Document: "Human activities significantly change the rates of many of Earth’s surface processes. Humankind has become a geological agent that must be taken into account equally with natural processes in any attempt to understand the workings of Earth’s systems. As human populations and per capita consumption of natural resources increase, so do our impacts on Earth’s systems."
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Document: "Earth scientists help society move toward greater sustainability. Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal, are being developed. They will replace fossil fuels as those become scarcer, more expensive to retrieve from Earth, and undesirable due to environmental damage. Earth scientists foster global cooperation and science-informed stewardship that can help to ensure the availability of resources for future generations."
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Document: "Geology affects the distribution and development of human populations. Human populations have historically concentrated at sites that are geologically advantageous to commerce, food production, and other aspects of civilization.
7.3 Natural resources are limited. Earth’s natural resources provide the foundation for all of human society’s physical needs. Most are nonrenewable on human time scales, and many will run critically low in the near future."
7.3 Natural resources are limited. Earth’s natural resources provide the foundation for all of human society’s physical needs. Most are nonrenewable on human time scales, and many will run critically low in the near future."
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Document: "Mass extinctions occur when global conditions change faster than species in large numbers can adapt. Mass extinctions are often followed by the origination of many new species over millions of years as surviving species evolve and fill vacated niches.
6.7 The particular life forms that exist today, including humans, are a unique result of the history of Earth’s systems. Had this history been even slightly different, modern life forms might be entirely different and humans might never have evolved."
6.7 The particular life forms that exist today, including humans, are a unique result of the history of Earth’s systems. Had this history been even slightly different, modern life forms might be entirely different and humans might never have evolved."
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Document: "More complex life forms and ecosystems have arisen over the course of Earth’s history. This complexity has emerged in association with adaptations to new and constantly changing habitats. But not all evolution causes greater complexity; organisms adapting to changing local environments may also become simpler.
6.5 Microorganisms dominated Earth’s early biosphere and continue today to be the most widespread, abundant, and diverse group of organisms on the planet. Microbes change the chemistry of Earth’s surface and play a critical role in nutrient cycling within most ecosystems."
6.5 Microorganisms dominated Earth’s early biosphere and continue today to be the most widespread, abundant, and diverse group of organisms on the planet. Microbes change the chemistry of Earth’s surface and play a critical role in nutrient cycling within most ecosystems."
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Document: "Evolution, including the origination and extinction of species, is a natural and ongoing process. Changes to Earth and its ecosystems determine which individuals, populations, and species survive. As an outcome of dynamic Earth processes, life has adapted through evolution to new, diverse, and ever-changing niches."
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Document: "5.8 Fresh water is less than 3% of the water at Earth’s surface. Most of this fresh water is stored as glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. Less than 1% of Earth’s near-surface water is drinkable liquid fresh water, and about 99% of this water is in the form of groundwater in the pores and fractures within soil, sediment, and rock."
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Document: "5.2 Water is essential for life on Earth. Earth is unique in our Solar System in that water has coexisted at Earth’s surface in three phases (solid, liquid, and gas) for billions of years, allowing the development and continuous evolution of life.
5.3 Water’s unique combination of physical and chemical properties are essential to the dynamics of all of Earth’s systems. These properties include the manner in which water absorbs and releases heat, reflects sunlight, expands upon freezing, and dissolves other materials."
5.3 Water’s unique combination of physical and chemical properties are essential to the dynamics of all of Earth’s systems. These properties include the manner in which water absorbs and releases heat, reflects sunlight, expands upon freezing, and dissolves other materials."
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Document: "3.7 Changes in part of one system can cause new changes to that system or to other systems, often in surprising and complex ways. These new changes may take the form of “feedbacks” that can increase or decrease the original changes and can be unpredictable and/or irreversible. A deep knowledge of how most feedbacks work within and between Earth’s systems is still lacking.
3.8 Earth’s climate is an example of how complex interactions among systems can result in relatively sudden and significant changes. The geologic record shows that interactions among tectonic events, solar inputs, planetary orbits, ocean circulation, volcanic activity, glaciers, vegetation, and human activities can cause appreciable, and in some cases rapid, changes to global and regional patterns of temperature and precipitation."
3.8 Earth’s climate is an example of how complex interactions among systems can result in relatively sudden and significant changes. The geologic record shows that interactions among tectonic events, solar inputs, planetary orbits, ocean circulation, volcanic activity, glaciers, vegetation, and human activities can cause appreciable, and in some cases rapid, changes to global and regional patterns of temperature and precipitation."
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Document: "3.5 Regions where organisms actively interact with each other and their environment are called ecosystems. Ecosystems provide the goods (food, fuel, oxygen, and nutrients) and services (climate regulation, water cycling and purification, and soil development and maintenance) necessary to sustain the biosphere. Ecosystems are considered the planet’s essential life-support units.
3.6 Earth’s systems are dynamic; they continually react to changing influences. Components of Earth’s systems may appear stable, change slowly over long periods of time, or change abruptly with significant consequences for living organisms."
3.6 Earth’s systems are dynamic; they continually react to changing influences. Components of Earth’s systems may appear stable, change slowly over long periods of time, or change abruptly with significant consequences for living organisms."
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Document: "Big Idea 3. Earth is a complex system of interacting rock, water, air, and life.
3.1 The four major systems of Earth are the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes a metallic core, solid and molten rock, soil, and sediments. The atmosphere is the envelope of gas surrounding Earth. The hydrosphere includes the ice, water vapor, and liquid water in the atmosphere, the ocean, lakes, streams, soils, and groundwater. The biosphere includes Earth’s life, which can be found in many parts of the geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Humans are part of the biosphere, and human activities have important impacts on all four spheres.
3.2 All Earth processes are the result of energy flowing and mass cycling within and between Earth’s systems. This energy is derived from the sun and Earth’s interior. The flowing energy and cycling matter cause chemical and physical changes in Earth’s materials and living organisms. For example, large amounts of carbon continually cycle among systems of rock, water, air, organisms, and fossil fuels such as coal and oil."
3.1 The four major systems of Earth are the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes a metallic core, solid and molten rock, soil, and sediments. The atmosphere is the envelope of gas surrounding Earth. The hydrosphere includes the ice, water vapor, and liquid water in the atmosphere, the ocean, lakes, streams, soils, and groundwater. The biosphere includes Earth’s life, which can be found in many parts of the geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Humans are part of the biosphere, and human activities have important impacts on all four spheres.
3.2 All Earth processes are the result of energy flowing and mass cycling within and between Earth’s systems. This energy is derived from the sun and Earth’s interior. The flowing energy and cycling matter cause chemical and physical changes in Earth’s materials and living organisms. For example, large amounts of carbon continually cycle among systems of rock, water, air, organisms, and fossil fuels such as coal and oil."
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Document: "Life on Earth began more than 3.5 billion years ago. Fossils indicate that life began with single-celled organisms, which were the only life forms for billions of years. Humans (Homo sapiens) have existed for only a very small fraction (about 0.004%) of Earth’s history.
2.7 Over Earth’s vast history, both gradual and catastrophic processes have produced enormous changes. Super-continents formed and broke apart, the compositions of the atmosphere and ocean changed, sea level rose and fell, living species evolved and went extinct, ice sheets advanced and melted away, meteorites slammed into Earth, and mountains formed and eroded away."
2.7 Over Earth’s vast history, both gradual and catastrophic processes have produced enormous changes. Super-continents formed and broke apart, the compositions of the atmosphere and ocean changed, sea level rose and fell, living species evolved and went extinct, ice sheets advanced and melted away, meteorites slammed into Earth, and mountains formed and eroded away."
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Document: "2.3 Earth formed from the accumulation of dust and gas, and multiple collisions of smaller planetary bodies. Driven by gravity, Earth’s metallic core formed as iron sank to the center. Rock surrounding the core was mostly molten early in Earth’s history, and slowly cooled to form Earth’s mantle and crust. The atoms of different elements combined to make minerals, which combined to make rocks. Earth’s ocean and atmosphere began to form more than 4 billion years ago from the rise of lighter materials out of the mantle.
2.4 Earth’s crust has two distinct types: continental and oceanic. Continental crust persists at Earth’s surface and can be billions of years old. Oceanic crust continuously forms and recycles back into the mantle; in the ocean, it is nowhere older than about 200 million years."
2.4 Earth’s crust has two distinct types: continental and oceanic. Continental crust persists at Earth’s surface and can be billions of years old. Oceanic crust continuously forms and recycles back into the mantle; in the ocean, it is nowhere older than about 200 million years."
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Document: "Our Solar System formed from a vast cloud of gas and dust 4.6 billion years ago. Some of this gas and dust was the remains of the supernova explosion of a previous star; our bodies are therefore made of “stardust.” This age of 4.6 billion years is well established from the decay rates of radioactive elements found in meteorites and rocks from the Moon."
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Document: "Earth’s rocks and other materials provide a record of its history. Earth scientists use the structure, sequence, and properties of rocks, sediments, and fossils to reconstruct events in Earth’s history. Decay rates of radioactive elements are the primary means of obtaining numerical ages of rocks and organic remains. Understanding geologic processes active in the modern world is crucial to interpreting Earth’s past."
Futurum - Abstract Database of Futures Studies
Futurum - Abstract Database of Futures Studies: "Futurum is the first and only abstract database in the field of foresight and futures studies. Futurum makes latest research results and methodological development, published in leading journals of futures studies, easily accessible. The database does not contain full text articles, but the user gets full availability information of all the journals in the database."
Jun 1, 2009
Quick guide to the Motion Chart Gadget - Gapminder.org
Quick guide to the Motion Chart Gadget - Gapminder.org: "QUICK GUIDE TO THE MOTION CHART GADGET
Motion Chart is a free gadget in Google Spreadsheet (an online spreadsheet similar to excel). In motion chart you can convert your data-series into a Gapminder-like graph and put it on your web-page or blog. All you need is a free Google-account.
Motion Chart is a free gadget in Google Spreadsheet (an online spreadsheet similar to excel). In motion chart you can convert your data-series into a Gapminder-like graph and put it on your web-page or blog. All you need is a free Google-account.
Futures Research Methodology--V3.0
Futures Research Methodology--V3.0: "Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.
Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.
The CD-ROM contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages.
Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format."
Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.
The CD-ROM contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages.
Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format."
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.net
Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource, according to the Millennium Project.
Written by leading futurists Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, the 39 chapters include methods such as prediction markets, real-time delphi, robust decisionmaking, structural analysis, state of the future index, wild cards, and normative forecasting. Version 3.0 has added new chapters and updated and improved previous ones.
More info: The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource, according to the Millennium Project.
Written by leading futurists Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, the 39 chapters include methods such as prediction markets, real-time delphi, robust decisionmaking, structural analysis, state of the future index, wild cards, and normative forecasting. Version 3.0 has added new chapters and updated and improved previous ones.
More info: The Millennium Project
May 15, 2009
One of the next frontiers of search is taking all of the unstructured data spread helter-skelter across the Web and treat it like it is sitting in a nice, structured database. It is easier to get answers out of a database where everything is neatly labeled, stamped, and categorized. As the sheer volume of stuff on the Web keeps growing, keyword search keeps getting closer to its breaking point. Adding structure to the Web is one way to make sense of all that data, and Google is starting the tackle the problem with a Google Labs project called Google Squared, which Marissa Mayer mentioned earlier today at the company’s Searchology briefing.
Google Squared extracts data from Web pages and presents them in search results as squares in an online spreadsheet. Michael was at the event and got a personal demo (see video below). From Michael’s Searchology notes:
Google Squared is launching later this month in labs. Google Squared returns search results in a spreadsheet format. It structures the unstructured data on web pages. So a search for Small Dogs returns results with names, description, size, weight, origin, etc., in columns and rows.
Google is looking for data structures on the web that imply facts, and then grabbing it for Squared results. “It takes an incredible amount of compute power to create one of those squares,” she says.
Google Squared extracts data from Web pages and presents them in search results as squares in an online spreadsheet. Michael was at the event and got a personal demo (see video below). From Michael’s Searchology notes:
Google Squared is launching later this month in labs. Google Squared returns search results in a spreadsheet format. It structures the unstructured data on web pages. So a search for Small Dogs returns results with names, description, size, weight, origin, etc., in columns and rows.
Google is looking for data structures on the web that imply facts, and then grabbing it for Squared results. “It takes an incredible amount of compute power to create one of those squares,” she says.
May 14, 2009
May 10, 2009
KurzweilAI.net
KurzweilAI.netGoogle researchers Hyunyoung Choi and Hal Varian combined data from Google Trends on the popularity of different search terms with models used by economists to predict trends in areas such as travel and home sales, resulting in better forecasts in almost every case.
Google has demonstrated before that search data can predict flu outbreaks, and last week World Bank economist Erik Feyen said he could cut errors in a model that forecasts lending to the private sector by 15% using Google search data.
Google has demonstrated before that search data can predict flu outbreaks, and last week World Bank economist Erik Feyen said he could cut errors in a model that forecasts lending to the private sector by 15% using Google search data.
May 7, 2009
Ray Kurzweil: A singular view of the future - opinion - 06 May 2009 - New Scientist
Ray Kurzweil: A singular view of the future - opinion - 06 May 2009 - New Scientist: "The power of ideas to change the world is accelerating and few people grasp the implications of that fully. People don't think exponentially, yet exponential change applies to anything that involves measuring information content. Take genetic sequencing. When the human genome project was announced in 1990, sceptics said: 'No way you're going to do this in 15 years.' Halfway through the project the sceptics were still going strong, saying you've only finished 1 per cent of the project. But that's actually right on schedule: by the time you get to 1 per cent you're only seven doublings away."
Five futurist visionaries and what they got right - tech - 06 May 2009 - New Scientist
Five futurist visionaries and what they got right - tech - 06 May 2009 - New Scientist: "Five futurist visionaries and what they got right"
Apr 3, 2009
What to Read on Geopolitics | Foreign Affairs
What to Read on Geopolitics | Foreign Affairs: "Theorizing about the relationship between geography and security is one of the oldest and most central themes of Western political science. Modern geopolitical thinking appeared in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, differing from its predecessors in its emphasis on technological change and global systems of power. In vogue before and through the world wars, geopolitics fell out of favor by the second half of the century, accused of everything from environmental determinism to simplistic binary categorization. Today, however, the subject is undergoing a revival -- perhaps based on the recognition that global political changes in the twenty-first century may stem not simply from human culture and institutions but also the geographical environment."
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs: "Using traditional tools of influence to counter opponents and shift the strategic orientation of secondary regional actors would be a classic move -- and just the sort to get the United States right back in the game."
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs
The Return of the Old Middle East | Foreign Affairs: "All this is sensible, but to best secure U.S. interests in the Middle East, the new administration needs to remind itself of the rules of the local game -- the traditional contest for influence among regional states. It is played out more in political terms than in military ones, although the possibility of violence is never far. The players are the stronger regional powers (Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey) and the playing fields are the weaker powers (Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories) whose governments cannot prevent outsiders from interfering in domestic politics. The tools of influence are money, guns, and ideology -- and the scorecard is judged by the political orientations of the weaker states."
What to Read on Modernization Theory | Foreign Affairs
What to Read on Modernization Theory | Foreign Affairs: "Lipset's argument was actually fairly sophisticated. He claimed that economic development sets off a series of profound social changes that together tend to produce democracy. He noted, for example, that wealthier societies tend to have higher levels of education and urbanization, more sophisticated and varied means of communication, larger middle classes, and greater social equality and mobility. All of these things, Lipset argued, are associated with, and necessary for the emergence and proper functioning of, democratic political institutions."
Mar 18, 2009
NIC 2025 Project
NIC 2025 Project: "Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:
The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East."
The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East."
Jan 6, 2009
Technology Review: Our Past Within Us
Technology Review: Our Past Within Us: "Furthermore, Renfrew told me, 'studies of mtDNA mutation rates give an approximate chronology that ties quite nicely to data from radiocarbon dating of fossil remains.' Like radiocarbon dating itself, mtDNA analysis has refuted long-cherished myths about race by showing that humankind almost certainly had a single origin in Africa, with our main dispersal out of that continent occurring about 60,000 years ago and proba bly involving a relatively small number of humans. During humanity's global diaspora, many populations grew isolated. Today, mitochondrial haplogroups--groups that share common ancestors--are identifiable as originating in Africa, Europe, Asia, the Americas, and the Pacific Islands."
Dec 19, 2008
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "This damage has put the American model of free-market capitalism under a cloud. The financial system is seen as having collapsed; and the regulatory framework, as having spectacularly failed to curb widespread abuses and corruption. Now, searching for stability, the U.S. government and some European governments have nationalized their financial sectors to a degree that contradicts the tenets of modern capitalism. Much of the world is turning a historic corner and heading into a period in which the role of the state will be larger and that of the private sector will be smaller. As it does, the United States' global power, as well as the appeal of U.S.-style democracy, is eroding. Although the United States is fortunate that this crisis coincides with the promise inherent in the election of Barack Obama as president, historical forces -- and the crash of 2008 -- will carry the world away from a unipolar system regardless."
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman
Foreign Affairs - The Great Crash, 2008 - Roger C. Altman: "The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the United States and Europe. Over the medium term, Washington and European governments will have neither the resources nor the economic credibility to play the role in global affairs that they otherwise would have played. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the interim, they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the United States."
Nov 26, 2008
Economic Growth Fueling Rise of Emerging Players
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power
now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history. This shift
derives from two sources. First, increases in oil and commodity prices have generated windfall
profits for the Gulf states and Russia. Second, lower costs combined with government policies
have shifted the locus of manufacturing and some service industries to Asia.
Nov 25, 2008
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial: "Other projections in 'Global Trends 2025': include:
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves."
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
200811202686 | Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World | / | Editorial
The ODNI report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system. The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, "Global Trends 2025" concludes.
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018
Futurists Forecast Eight Trends for 2018: "The eight trends are as follows:
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
In search of 'enoughness'--Consumers rethink their life goals and what they work for.
New Americanism--America reconsiders its place in the world.
Sensing consumers--Technology exposes hidden aspects of daily life.
The transparent self--Biological and other advances reveal the body and mind's inner workings.
Just-in-time life--Ubiquitous information flows reshape how people socialize, work, and shop.
Women in charge--Women overtake men educationally, leaving them better prepared for the 21st century workforce.
Virtual made real--Boundaries between virtual and real worlds become more porous.
Education revolution--Ivy-covered walls go virtual and modular."
Global Trends 2025: A "more complex international system" is likely by the year 2025, with global power shifts making the world "almost unrecognizable" by then. The National Intelligence Council, which does strategic thinking for the U.S. intelligence community, takes a look into the future with its "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World." Globalization and the rise of eastern nations and non-state actors mean that "the players are changing." Among the changes likely in the coming decades: the gap between developed and developing nations will narrow, conflicts will erupt over ever scarcer resources like water and oil, and the United States is likely to remain the major world power, but it will "become more constrained" as other nations and factions rise. Uncertainties remain about whether these demographic and economic issues will lead to a more cooperative or fragmented world, but unpredictable "major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises" are sure to affect the course of history.
Nov 21, 2008
Intervention by any name Ultra-modern conventional armed forces and weapons are ill-suited to fight today’s asymmetrical wars against non-state actors resorting to sub-conventional arms and tactics. But supercarriers, supersonic aircraft, anti-missile missiles, military satellites, surveillance robots, and unmanned vehicles and boats are not going out of season. Intervention, direct and indirect, open and covert, military and civic, in the internal affairs of other states has been standard US foreign policy since 1945. The US has not hesitated to intervene, mostly unilaterally, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Bolivia and Colombia, in pursuit of its imperial interest.
Taking the USAID (United States Agency for International Development), Fulbright Programme and Congress for Cultural Freedom of the anti-Communist cold war as their model, the stalwarts of the new global war on terror have created equivalents in the State Department’s Millennial Challenge and Middle East Partnership Initiative. The defence department enlists universities through Project Minerva to help with the new model counterinsurgency warfare and unconventional military state-building operations.
But though they endure, overextended empires suffer injuries to their power and prestige. In such moments they tend to lash out, to avoid being taken for paper tigers. Given Washington’s predicament in Iraq, will the US escalate its intervention in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Somalia or Venezuela? The US has the strongest army the world has ever known. Preponderant on sea, in the air and in space (including cyberspace), the US has an awesome capacity to project its power over enormous distances with speed, a self-appointed sheriff rushing to master or exploit real and putative crises anywhere on earth. In the words of the former secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld: “No corner of the world is remote enough, no mountain high enough, no cave or bunker deep enough, no SUV fast enough to protect our enemies from our reach.”
Oct 1, 2008
A disruptive technology is defined "as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable -- even if temporary -- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of U.S. national power," the report said. Those elements are geopolitical, military, economic or social cohesion. It identified six technologies that have that potential.
Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.
Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.
Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.
Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.
Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.
Biogerontechnology involves technologies that improve lifespan. Think of Dorian Gray. If people are living longer and healthier lives, it will challenge nations to develop new economic and social policies for an older and healthier population.
Energy storage systems, such as fuel cells and ultracapacitors, would replace fossil fuels.
Crop-based biofuels and chemicals production, which will reduce gasoline dependence.
Clean coal technologies can improve electrical generation efficiency and reduce pollutants.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a number of industries, ranging from the military to health care.
Internet pervasiveness will be in everyday objects, such as food packages, furniture and paper documents. It will also streamline supply chains, slash costs "and reduce dependence on human labor," according to the report.
The U.S. population will get older, but not to the extent of Western Europe, Japan and China, where the the ratio of young productive people to seniors will begin to approach 1-3. "That is a pretty heavy burden on economic growth," Fingar said.
The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.
Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.
"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.
The next president will receive a particularly bleak warning about climate change. By 2025, "it is not a good time to live in the Southwest because it runs out of water and looks like the Dust Bowl. It is not a good time to be along the Atlantic Seaboard, particularly in the South because of the projected increase and intensity and severity and frequency of severe weather -- more hurricanes, more serious storms, and so forth," Fingar said.
Among the climate-related problems Fingar cited are water shortages in "the already unstable Middle East" and in China.
"Think about the difficulty of scrounging up in the international system the food for 17 [million] or 18 million North Koreans, for a few tens of millions on the Horn of Africa ... you have got one hell of a problem. And that is going to happen. This isn't in the 'maybe' category. This is in the 'for-real' category," Fingar said.
Aug 25, 2008
At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com
At Conference on the Risks to Earth, Few Are Optimistic - NYTimes.com: "The participants were not particularly optimistic. They presented data showing that the boom in biofuels was depleting Southeast Asian rain forests, that “bot herders” — computer hackers for hire — were hijacking millions of computers, and that the lack of progress over handling nuclear waste was both hampering the revival of nuclear energy and adding to terrorism risks."
Aug 10, 2008
What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila
What in the world is going on?: A global intelligence briefing... by Armila: ". Restructuring of American Business
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best."
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company ca n make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing - outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best."
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company ca n make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing - outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.
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