Small numbers, big influence: "MARK Penn’s Microtrends is intriguing because it seems so counter intuitive. Our instinct tells us that the world is dominated by big trends, but, like Stephen Levitt in Freakonomics, Penn argues that these overspanning trends can sometimes be merely a misguided form of conventional wisdom. He points out that to really understand developments that change the world, we have to look at underlying facts, especially through numbers and statistics.
His premise is that our world today, in particular America, is becoming increasingly stratified. In place of megatrends, there are a vast number of what Penn terms small forces, or microtrends. Microtrends are the prevailing vogue among only 1% of any country’s population. It is these small forces that will drive the future."
Jul 28, 2008
Jul 14, 2008
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "There are grounds for hope, however. The use of renewable energy is growing, and China's largest car maker plans for half its cars to be hybrids within two years. But the report's authors say that governments are not up to the job: 'Many of the world's decision-making processes are inefficient, slow and ill-informed, especially when given the new demands from increasing complexity [and] globalisation.' They call on world leaders to do more long-term planning, and to join in global approaches to the interlocking crises. 'Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organised crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded.'"
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Yet nuclear power – the solution increasingly favoured by governments, which are planning to add another 350 reactors to the 438 already operating around the world – will not do the job. 'For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants would have to be built, at $5-15bn per plant, over 15 years – and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050.'
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
It estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, adding: 'Links between terrorists and organised crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007.'
Organised crime, it adds, 'continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counterstrategy'. It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "And this is happening in a world that is already becoming freer and more democratic. Over the past 30 years, the number of free countries has more than doubled from 43 to 90, it reports, while those that are partly free increased from 46 to 60. Just over one-third of humanity still lives in the 43 countries with authoritarian regimes, but half of these people are in China."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "Life expectancy and literacy rates are increasing worldwide, while infant mortality and the number of armed conflicts have been falling fast. Per capita income has been growing strongly enough to cut poverty by more than half by 2015 – except, importantly, in Africa.
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
Even better, it says, 'advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today'."
We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent
We've seen the future ... and we may <u>not</u> be doomed - Green Living, Environment - The Independent: "It goes on. 'This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the internet, international trade, language translation and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve [its] prospects. It is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve [them].'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "However, it notes that 'Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges.'"
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions, says this report published by the Millennium Project, a global participatory futures research think tank affiliated with the World Federation of UN Associations."
Jul 11, 2008
Bloomberg.com: News
Bloomberg.com: News: "Obesity in China Doubled in 11 Years With Rising Prosperity
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
By Cristina Alesci
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Waistlines in China are expanding faster than almost anywhere else, with nearly a quarter of residents in the Earth's most populous nation now overweight, according to a study.
Obesity among China's 1.3 billion people doubled among women and tripled in men from 1989 to 2000, according to a study published today in the journal Health Affairs. China's rising prosperity, which allows more people to afford meat, dairy foods, vegetable oils and sedentary living, is fueling the growth, the study said."
Jul 9, 2008
HealthMap | Global disease alert map
HealthMap | Global disease alert map: "HealthMap
Global disease alert map"
Global disease alert map"
Jul 2, 2008
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "In the history of life on Earth the human species is a very latecomer. But the human impact on the Earth has slowly and then rapidly increased, most of all in the last 250 years, to what has been widely predicted as an unsustainable level in just a few generations hence.
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
The main factors are human population increase, degradation of land, consumption of resources, water pollution and supply, climate change, destruction of biodiversity and other species, the widening division between rich and poor, the risk of conflict, and the technological fix. Technology could hold the key to human survival or its destruction. Despite life on Earth being robust, human survival is not guaranteed. Technology may throw up some interesting options, but it is how we govern these options that will count.
There are solutions to most of problems we have created, but we will have to radically change our thinking on global governance and the whole spectrum of international affairs."
Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks: "Global catastrophes have occurred many times in history, even if we only count disasters causing more than 10 million deaths. A very partial list of examples includes the An Shi Rebellion (756-763), the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), and the famine of the Great Leap Forward in China, the Black Death in Europe, the Spanish flu pandemic, the two World Wars, the Nazi genocides, the famines in British India, Stalinist totalitarianism, and the decimation of the native American population through smallpox and other diseases following the arrival of European colonizers. Many others could be added to this list."
Dr Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity, has co-edited a book called Global Catastrophic Risks, to be published by OUP in June 2008. The book
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
includes a foreword by Lord Rees, and essays by twenty-six leading experts who look at
the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
The book also addresses over-arching issues— policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
Jun 30, 2008
Science Journal - WSJ.com
Science Journal - WSJ.com: "In ways we are only beginning to understand, the synapses and neurons in the human nervous system work in concert to perceive the world around them, to learn from their perceptions, to remember important experiences, to plan ahead, and to decide and act on incomplete information. In a rudimentary way, they predetermine our choices."
Jun 28, 2008
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "The total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet, with the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, according to a report by Jupiter Research.
Asia will have the highest online growth rate compared to other regions in the world, ans a large pool of sophisticated online users."
Asia will have the highest online growth rate compared to other regions in the world, ans a large pool of sophisticated online users."
Jun 23, 2008
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View
Accelerating-Intelligence News: Single Article View: "Christian Science Monitor, June 18, 2008
A simple new low-cost solar dish developed by MIT students produces steam heat for less than the cost of heat from oil or natural gas, according to the MIT team.
The steam heat can be used cost effectively for manufacturing, food pasteurization, and heating buildings.
A simple new low-cost solar dish developed by MIT students produces steam heat for less than the cost of heat from oil or natural gas, according to the MIT team.
The steam heat can be used cost effectively for manufacturing, food pasteurization, and heating buildings.
New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists
New Discovery Proves 'Selfish Gene' Exists: "A new discovery by a scientist from The University of Western Ontario provides conclusive evidence which supports decades-old evolutionary doctrines long accepted as fact."
Jun 16, 2008
Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order
Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order: "On the supply side, when we look at how much money we need to invest to increase production, we mainly look at how much oil demand will grow in the future. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. The main problem here is that the existing fields, many mature fields, are declining. So we have to increase production, not only to meet the growth in demand, but also to compensate for the decline in existing mature fields outside of OPEC. These decline-rate issues are not really taken into consideration, which is much more important than demand growth when it comes to production prospects. Our book, World Energy Outlook 2008, will provide a lot of data on that."
Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order
Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: The New World Energy Order: "The bulk of the oil has in the past been produced by the international oil companies, so-called Big Oil. But their existing reserves are declining in what they have under ownership. They have no access to new reserves, the bulk of which are in Middle East countries. In most of these countries, only the national oil company can, by law, invest. So, even though the international oil companies may have the capital and the technology, they don’t have access to the reserves. Therefore, the bulk of the growth in the future needs to come from the national oil companies, and perhaps price will no longer be the main determinant when they make their [production] decisions, because for many countries, oil is their only natural endowment. And those countries legitimately value and want to leave their one and only natural endowment for future generations."
Jun 12, 2008
Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US Interests out to 2025 – (National Intelligence Council – April, 2008)http://www.dni.gov/nic/confreports_disruptive_tech.htmlA “disruptive technology” is defined as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable-even if temporary- degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion). The six disruptive technologies most likely to enhance or degrade US national power out to 2025 were in the areas of: Biogerontechnology; Energy Storage Materials; Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals; Clean Coal Technologies; Service Robotics; and the Internet of Things.
The Dirty Truth about Canada's Tar-Sands Baby – (Foreign Policy – October 30, 2007)http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/6843Canada is already the largest supplier of oil to the United States. Tar-sand extraction has exploded since oil prices began to rise with the start of the Iraq war, and Canada's total oil output will soon double Kuwait's. But tar-sand extraction comes at a much higher environmental cost than traditional drilling. The extraction of the oil requires heat, and thus the burning of vast amounts of natural gas - effectively one barrel of gas to extract two of crude - and some estimate that Fort McMurray and the Athabasca oil sands will soon be Canada's biggest contributor to global warming; nearly as much as the whole of Denmark. This in an area that has already seen, according to David Schindler, professor of ecology at the University of Alberta, two degrees of warming in the past 40 years.
Africa Fast Running Down Resources – (Planet Ark – June 10, 2008http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/48713/story.htmMany African countries are rapidly running down their natural resources as growing populations push the continent towards its ecological limits. The warning was issued in its first-ever detailed report on Africa's ecological footprint -- an estimate of the area of a country or region's land and sea surface used annually in meeting the individual consumption demands of its people. The report put Egypt, Libya and Algeria at the head of a list of nations of the continent already living well beyond their ecological means. But nine others were also using up their bio-capacity -- Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
The World is Upside Down – (Herald Tribune – June 1, 2008) http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/01/opinion/edcohen.php?page=1
Globalization is now a two-way street; in fact it's an Indian street with traffic weaving in all directions. "In an inverted world, not only have developing economies become dominant forces in global exports in the space of a few years, but their companies are becoming major players in the global economy, challenging the incumbents that dominated the international scene in the 20th century," said Claudio Frischtak, a Brazilian economist and consultant.A shift in economic power is underway whose implications the developed world has not grasped.
Globalization is now a two-way street; in fact it's an Indian street with traffic weaving in all directions. "In an inverted world, not only have developing economies become dominant forces in global exports in the space of a few years, but their companies are becoming major players in the global economy, challenging the incumbents that dominated the international scene in the 20th century," said Claudio Frischtak, a Brazilian economist and consultant.A shift in economic power is underway whose implications the developed world has not grasped.
FUTUREdition - The Future Today
FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "Harnessing Sunlight on the Cheap (Phys Org – May 7, 2008)
http://www.physorg.com/news129389932.html
For a project that could be on the very cutting edge of renewable energy, this one is actually decidedly low tech–and that’s the point. A team of MIT students has spent the last few months assembling a prototype for a concentrating solar power system they think could revolutionize the field. It’s a 12-foot-square mirrored dish capable of concentrating sunlight by a factor of 1,000, built from simple, inexpensive industrial materials selected for price, durability and ease of assembly rather than for optimum performance."
http://www.physorg.com/news129389932.html
For a project that could be on the very cutting edge of renewable energy, this one is actually decidedly low tech–and that’s the point. A team of MIT students has spent the last few months assembling a prototype for a concentrating solar power system they think could revolutionize the field. It’s a 12-foot-square mirrored dish capable of concentrating sunlight by a factor of 1,000, built from simple, inexpensive industrial materials selected for price, durability and ease of assembly rather than for optimum performance."
FUTUREdition - The Future Today
FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "Tasmanian Tiger DNA Resurrected – (BBC News – May 20, 2008)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7408840.stm
A fragment of DNA from the Tasmanian tiger has been brought back to life. The last living specimen died in Hobart zoo in 1936. Australian scientists extracted genetic material from a 100-year-old museum specimen, and put it into a mouse embryo to study how it worked.
It is the first time DNA of an extinct species has been used in this way, says a University of Melbourne team. Some researchers think the method could help reveal the function of genes in species such as the Neanderthals or mammoths."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7408840.stm
A fragment of DNA from the Tasmanian tiger has been brought back to life. The last living specimen died in Hobart zoo in 1936. Australian scientists extracted genetic material from a 100-year-old museum specimen, and put it into a mouse embryo to study how it worked.
It is the first time DNA of an extinct species has been used in this way, says a University of Melbourne team. Some researchers think the method could help reveal the function of genes in species such as the Neanderthals or mammoths."
FUTUREdition - The Future Today
FUTUREdition - The Future Today: "A Critique of Shortsighted Anthropic Principles – (Phys Org – May 16, 2008)
http://www.physorg.com/news130167074.html
Many people marvel that we live in a universe that seems to be precisely tailored to suit the development of intelligent life. The observation is the basis for some forms of “Anthropic Principles” that strive to explain why the laws of physics take the form we observe, given the nearly countless other possibilities permitted by schools of thought such as string theory. But a new paper in Physical Review Letters from a group of physicists at Case Western Reserve University argues that any connection between the laws of physics and the existence of life is likely to be an illusion stemming from our shortsighted definition of intelligent life."
http://www.physorg.com/news130167074.html
Many people marvel that we live in a universe that seems to be precisely tailored to suit the development of intelligent life. The observation is the basis for some forms of “Anthropic Principles” that strive to explain why the laws of physics take the form we observe, given the nearly countless other possibilities permitted by schools of thought such as string theory. But a new paper in Physical Review Letters from a group of physicists at Case Western Reserve University argues that any connection between the laws of physics and the existence of life is likely to be an illusion stemming from our shortsighted definition of intelligent life."
Jun 9, 2008
We're really subsidising Opec-Swaminomics-Swaminathan A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Times of India
We're really subsidising Opec-Swaminomics-Swaminathan A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Times of India: "Rich countries have learned from history, but developing countries have not. The demand for oil in rich countries is slowing today with rising prices. Petrol consumption has fallen in the US as the price has risen to $4/gallon. US demand for gas-guzzling large cars has collapsed, and General Motors wants to sell its Hummer brand, the largest car of all. All these positive outcomes flow from passing on the burden of Opec to the consumer.
But China, India and many developing countries have tried to keep oil prices artificially low. Thus, they have kept demand artificially high (they now account for a big chunk of world demand). And that is why Opec is able to sell oil at $135/barrel, despite a global slowdown.
Ideally, India should pass on the full cost to consumers, as it did in 1974. But for politicians who view high subsidies as electoral necessities, here is a proposal. First, abolish all implicit and explicit subsidies on oil. Use the money saved to cut excise duties on other items of common consumption and provide cash to poor families. Overall inflation and government revenue will be unchanged. Yet, the poor will benefit, and high oil prices will encourage energy-efficiency. India's oil use will fall, helping lower Opec's prices. That will be better than today's policy, which ends up subsidising Saudi Arabia."
But China, India and many developing countries have tried to keep oil prices artificially low. Thus, they have kept demand artificially high (they now account for a big chunk of world demand). And that is why Opec is able to sell oil at $135/barrel, despite a global slowdown.
Ideally, India should pass on the full cost to consumers, as it did in 1974. But for politicians who view high subsidies as electoral necessities, here is a proposal. First, abolish all implicit and explicit subsidies on oil. Use the money saved to cut excise duties on other items of common consumption and provide cash to poor families. Overall inflation and government revenue will be unchanged. Yet, the poor will benefit, and high oil prices will encourage energy-efficiency. India's oil use will fall, helping lower Opec's prices. That will be better than today's policy, which ends up subsidising Saudi Arabia."
Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com
Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com: "By 2010, China will have more Ph.D. scientists and engineers than the United States. These professionals are not fundamentally a threat. To the contrary, they are creators, whose ideas are likely to improve the lives of ordinary Americans, not just the business elites. The more access the Chinese have to American and other markets, the more they can afford higher education and the greater their incentive to innovate."
Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com
Economic View - This Global Show Must Go On - NYTimes.com: "THE last 20 years have brought the world more trade, more globalization and more economic growth than in any previous such period in history. Few commentators had believed that such a rise in trade and living standards was possible so quickly.
David G. KleinMore than 400 million Chinese climbed out of poverty between 1990 and 2004, according to the World Bank. India has become a rapidly growing economy, the middle class in Brazil and Mexico is flourishing, and recent successes of Ghana and Tanzania show that parts of Africa may be turning the corner as well."
David G. KleinMore than 400 million Chinese climbed out of poverty between 1990 and 2004, according to the World Bank. India has become a rapidly growing economy, the middle class in Brazil and Mexico is flourishing, and recent successes of Ghana and Tanzania show that parts of Africa may be turning the corner as well."
May 29, 2008
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Thanks also, I should note, to the success of the system’s
modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of
entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption,
drugs, liquor, and religion that has so far successful deadened most of
the general public into apathetic stupor."
modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of
entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption,
drugs, liquor, and religion that has so far successful deadened most of
the general public into apathetic stupor."
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Third, military overstretch. Empires are by definition
colonizers, and trying to keep control over hostage peoples by force
inevitably leads to large and often uncontrollable armies, massive
drains on the economy, and ultimately rebellion on the
periphery. As the Roman empire collapsed when the
“barbarians” at its frontiers revolted and the Roman legions, stretched
from Germany to Africa to Persia and grown unruly and corrupt, were
defeated, as the Persian empire fell in the 5th century BC because it
was unable to maintain the colonies it had established from India to
Africa and the peripheries rose in revolt, so the American empire is
overextended, weakened at the peripheries, forced to use ill-equipped
and undertrained troops to maintain it, and even the generals admit
that it can’t be sustained. We have 547,000 – more than half a million – active troops,
based at (this is amazing and little understood) more than 725 admitted
military bases in at least 40 countries around the world, plus a formal
“military presence” in no less than 153 countries, on every continent
but Antarctica, and nearly a dozen fully armed carrier and missile
fleets on all the seven seas."
colonizers, and trying to keep control over hostage peoples by force
inevitably leads to large and often uncontrollable armies, massive
drains on the economy, and ultimately rebellion on the
periphery. As the Roman empire collapsed when the
“barbarians” at its frontiers revolted and the Roman legions, stretched
from Germany to Africa to Persia and grown unruly and corrupt, were
defeated, as the Persian empire fell in the 5th century BC because it
was unable to maintain the colonies it had established from India to
Africa and the peripheries rose in revolt, so the American empire is
overextended, weakened at the peripheries, forced to use ill-equipped
and undertrained troops to maintain it, and even the generals admit
that it can’t be sustained. We have 547,000 – more than half a million – active troops,
based at (this is amazing and little understood) more than 725 admitted
military bases in at least 40 countries around the world, plus a formal
“military presence” in no less than 153 countries, on every continent
but Antarctica, and nearly a dozen fully armed carrier and missile
fleets on all the seven seas."
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "I have studied empires pretty carefully
over the last few years, and I have figured out the basic nature of
these systems and concluded that all empires collapse, and usually
within less than a century, because of their inherent nature.
They not only make mistakes but usually the same set of mistakes,
simply because of the inevitable character of the imperial structure,
which ultimately fails because of its size, complexity, territorial
reach, social stratification, economic disparities, heterogeneity,
domination of people and nature, hierarchy, and environmental ignorance."
over the last few years, and I have figured out the basic nature of
these systems and concluded that all empires collapse, and usually
within less than a century, because of their inherent nature.
They not only make mistakes but usually the same set of mistakes,
simply because of the inevitable character of the imperial structure,
which ultimately fails because of its size, complexity, territorial
reach, social stratification, economic disparities, heterogeneity,
domination of people and nature, hierarchy, and environmental ignorance."
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons
Kirkpatrick Sale - You Know Your Empire Is Collapsing When... - Vermont Commons: "Let’s say for starters, you know your empire is collapsing when the
empire that is your fiercest rival buys up a total of 26 percent of
three of your major Wall Street firms for $9 billion, and declares that
it has another $200 billion that it is looking to invest.[Since we’re going to be doing some numbers here, I should pause
to give a little reference for the concept “billion.” A billion seconds
ago was . . . 1959, which means some of you here haven’t yet lived a
billion seconds. A billion minutes ago Jesus was walking along
the Sea of Galilee – more than 2 millennia ago. A billion hours
ago, about 100,000 years before the present, the classic Neanderthal
peoples were wandering Europe and the Middle East, and Homo sapiens
started to move out of Africa. We throw the term around a lot,
but a billion is a big, big number.]Next, you might figure your empire is collapsing when its total debt
obligations amount to $50.5 trillion. That is so big that it’s about
the same as the total household income of everyone in the"
empire that is your fiercest rival buys up a total of 26 percent of
three of your major Wall Street firms for $9 billion, and declares that
it has another $200 billion that it is looking to invest.[Since we’re going to be doing some numbers here, I should pause
to give a little reference for the concept “billion.” A billion seconds
ago was . . . 1959, which means some of you here haven’t yet lived a
billion seconds. A billion minutes ago Jesus was walking along
the Sea of Galilee – more than 2 millennia ago. A billion hours
ago, about 100,000 years before the present, the classic Neanderthal
peoples were wandering Europe and the Middle East, and Homo sapiens
started to move out of Africa. We throw the term around a lot,
but a billion is a big, big number.]Next, you might figure your empire is collapsing when its total debt
obligations amount to $50.5 trillion. That is so big that it’s about
the same as the total household income of everyone in the"
Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise
Technology Review: TR10: Modeling Surprise: "TR10: Modeling Surprise
Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."
Combining massive quantities of data, insights into human psychology, and machine learning can help manage surprising events, says Eric Horvitz."
May 26, 2008
Who Will Rule the 21st Century?
Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "China has other challenges as well. Aside from its risky social experiment, it has an economy in which less than a quarter of its people truly participate, and its one-child policy is exacerbating the problems of an already aging population. India, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with its overwhelming number of have-nots and its aforementioned corruption. True, India is a democracy, but a democracy muddled by a profusion of divergent political parties."
Who Will Rule the 21st Century?
Who Will Rule the 21st Century?: "But “right now” doesn’t mean forever. All you need is a ruler to draw the straight-line extrapolation showing that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. For China, that would occur as early as 2045; for India, the date would be some 20 years later. Which is why you so often hear experts predicting that, by midcentury, the U.S. will be trailing the two new world superpowers.
We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions."
We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions."
May 14, 2008
Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study
Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study: "Three Chinese institutions were among the world's top four banks at the end of 2007 at a time when the market capitalisation of Western banks was suffering from a global financial crisis, a study showed Wednesday.
The number one spot in the rankings, compiled by the Boston Consulting Group, was occupied by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with market capitalisation of nearly 340 billion dollars (218 billion euros).
In second place was China Construction Bank, followed by HSBC of Britain, Bank of China, Bank of America and Citigroup of the United States."
The number one spot in the rankings, compiled by the Boston Consulting Group, was occupied by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with market capitalisation of nearly 340 billion dollars (218 billion euros).
In second place was China Construction Bank, followed by HSBC of Britain, Bank of China, Bank of America and Citigroup of the United States."
Bloomberg.com: News
Bloomberg.com: News: "April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's discoveries of what may be two of the world's three biggest oil finds in the past 30 years could help end the Western Hemisphere's reliance on Middle East crude, Strategic Forecasting Inc. said.
Saudi Arabia's influence as the biggest oil exporter would wane if the fields are as big as advertised, and China and India would become dominant buyers of Persian Gulf oil, said Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at Strategic Forecasting in Austin, Texas. Zeihan's firm, which consults for companies and governments around the world, was described in a 2001 Barron's article as ``the shadow CIA.''
Brazil may be pumping ``several million'' barrels of crude daily by 2020, vaulting the nation into the ranks of the world's seven biggest producers, Zeihan said in a telephone interview. The U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters would be reduced, leaving the region exposed to more conflict, he said.
``We could see that world becoming a very violent one,'' said Zeihan, former chief of Middle East and East Asia analysis for Strategic Forecasting. ``If the United States isn't getting any crude from the Gulf, what benefit does it have in policing the Gulf anymore? All of the geopolitical flux that wracks that region regularly suddenly isn't our problem.''"
Saudi Arabia's influence as the biggest oil exporter would wane if the fields are as big as advertised, and China and India would become dominant buyers of Persian Gulf oil, said Peter Zeihan, vice president of analysis at Strategic Forecasting in Austin, Texas. Zeihan's firm, which consults for companies and governments around the world, was described in a 2001 Barron's article as ``the shadow CIA.''
Brazil may be pumping ``several million'' barrels of crude daily by 2020, vaulting the nation into the ranks of the world's seven biggest producers, Zeihan said in a telephone interview. The U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters would be reduced, leaving the region exposed to more conflict, he said.
``We could see that world becoming a very violent one,'' said Zeihan, former chief of Middle East and East Asia analysis for Strategic Forecasting. ``If the United States isn't getting any crude from the Gulf, what benefit does it have in policing the Gulf anymore? All of the geopolitical flux that wracks that region regularly suddenly isn't our problem.''"
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "The migrations of humans out of Africa to populate the rest of the world appear to have begun about 60,000 years ago, but little has been known about humans between Eve and that dispersal.
The new study looks at the mitochondrial DNA of the Khoi and San people in South Africa, who appear to have diverged from other people between 90,000 and 150,000 years ago.
The researchers led by Doron Behar of Rambam Medical Center in Haifa, Israel, and Saharon Rosset of IBM T.J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York, and Tel Aviv University concluded that humans separated into small populations before the Stone Age, when they came back together and began to increase in numbers and spread to other areas."
The new study looks at the mitochondrial DNA of the Khoi and San people in South Africa, who appear to have diverged from other people between 90,000 and 150,000 years ago.
The researchers led by Doron Behar of Rambam Medical Center in Haifa, Israel, and Saharon Rosset of IBM T.J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York, and Tel Aviv University concluded that humans separated into small populations before the Stone Age, when they came back together and began to increase in numbers and spread to other areas."
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Studies using mitochondrial DNA, which is passed down through mothers, have traced modern humans to a single 'mitochondrial Eve,' who lived in Africa about 200,000 years ago."
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com
Humans nearly wiped out 70,000 years ago, study says - CNN.com: "Human beings may have had a brush with extinction 70,000 years ago, an extensive genetic study suggests.
Geneticist Spencer Wells, here meeting an African village elder, says the study tells 'truly an epic drama.'
The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought, according to an analysis released Thursday.
The report notes that a separate study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that the number of early humans may have shrunk as low as 2,000 before numbers began to expand again in the early Stone Age."
Geneticist Spencer Wells, here meeting an African village elder, says the study tells 'truly an epic drama.'
The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought, according to an analysis released Thursday.
The report notes that a separate study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that the number of early humans may have shrunk as low as 2,000 before numbers began to expand again in the early Stone Age."
May 8, 2008
Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain | Worldwatch Institute
Fertility Falls, Population Rises, Future Uncertain Worldwatch Institute: "Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one certainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.) Although the average woman worldwide is giving birth to fewer children than ever before (see Figure 1), an estimated 136 million babies were born in 2007.1 Global data do not allow demographers to be certain that any specific year sets a record for births, but this one certainly came close. The year's cohort of babies propelled global population to an estimated 6.7 billion by the end of 2007. (See Figure 2.)"
May 7, 2008
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds. Virtual Reality Is Getting Real — In the next 15 years VR experiences will be fully integrated into real life. We’ll “attend” meetings, practice surgical techniques, travel to exotic places, test design flaws before building things, and create digital clones to be our representatives in virtual worlds."
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead. Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead."
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020. Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020."
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States."
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
WFS Forecasts for the Next 25 Years: "The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving this increased prosperity. But challenges to prosperity will also become more acute, such as water shortages that will affect two-thirds of world population by 2025."
May 6, 2008
ID21 - communicating development research
ID21 - communicating development research: "A publication from the Oxford Research Group, in the UK, challenges the idea that the ‘war on terror’ must be prioritised over all other global challenges. Current responses to terrorism may actually provoke rather than contain it. The authors identify four challenges more deserving of international attention: climate change; competition over resources; socio-economic marginalisation of the majority world; and global militarisation."
TheMercury.com - News Article
TheMercury.com - News Article: "As important as military strength is to China today, economic development and political stability are just as central to its leaders' thinking—as Ambassador Zhou himself made clear when he was here just 11 weeks ago. From the U.S. perspective, China's growing engagement with the rest of the world is driven primarily by two things: a need for access to markets, resources, technology, and expertise, and a desire to assert its influence in the region and with developing countries in other parts of the world.
I should note that even as it aspires to a larger global role, China faces significant domestic challenges and structural weaknesses: things like uneven income distribution, growing dependence on foreign oil and other imported resources, environmental degradation, an aging population, and massive migration from rural areas to cities. All of these factors will influence China's trajectory, and we can't ignore them. But to me, the key question for the future is whether China is ready to accept the responsibility that comes along with 'great power status.'"
I should note that even as it aspires to a larger global role, China faces significant domestic challenges and structural weaknesses: things like uneven income distribution, growing dependence on foreign oil and other imported resources, environmental degradation, an aging population, and massive migration from rural areas to cities. All of these factors will influence China's trajectory, and we can't ignore them. But to me, the key question for the future is whether China is ready to accept the responsibility that comes along with 'great power status.'"
TheMercury.com - News Article
TheMercury.com - News Article: "I say that with full appreciation for the remarkable speed and scope of China's recent military buildup. The Chinese have fully absorbed the lessons of both Gulf wars, developing and integrating advanced weaponry into a modern military force. While it's true that these new capabilities could pose a risk to U.S. forces and interests in the region, the military modernization is as much about projecting strength as anything else. After two centuries of perceived Western hegemony, China is determined to flex its muscle. It sees an advanced military force as an essential element of great power status. And it is the Intelligence Community's view that any Chinese regime, even a democratic one, would have similar nationalist goals."
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