Stupidity Without Borders – The Alliance of Utopias | The Brussels Journal: "Writer Spengler in the Asia Times Online commented that demography is destiny: “Never in recorded history have prosperous and peaceful nations chosen to disappear from the face of the earth. Yet that is what the Europeans have chosen to do. Back in 1348 Europe suffered the Black Death.” “The plague reduced the estimated European population by about a third. In the next 50 years, Europe’s population will relive – in slow motion – that plague demography, losing about a fifth of its population by 2050.”"

Stupidity Without Borders – The Alliance of Utopias | The Brussels Journal: "“Europe and Japan are now facing a population problem that is unprecedented in human history,” said Bill Butz, president of the Population Reference Bureau. Countries have lost people because of wars, disease and natural disasters but never because women stopped having enough children. Japan announced that its population had shrunk in 2005 for the first time, and that it was now the world’s most elderly nation. Italy was second. On average, women must have 2.1 children in their lifetimes for a society to replenish itself, accounting for infant mortality and other factors. Only one country in Europe – Muslim Albania – has a fertility rate above 2. Russia’s fertility rate is 1.28."

Stupidity Without Borders – The Alliance of Utopias | The Brussels Journal: "The 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries have witnessed the most spectacular population growth in human history, most of it in Third World countries. The world’s population, estimated at 6.4 billion in 2006, grows by more than 70 million people per year. In sixty years, Brazil’s population has increased by 318 per cent; Ethiopia’s by 503 per cent. There are now 73 million people in Ethiopia – more than the population of Britain or France."

The Epoch Times | Reading the Vital Signs of the World: "The good news in Vital Signs is that in the year 2005 there has been a dramatic growth in renewable energy technologies and also energy efficiencies technologies. The positive side of the high oil price is the incentive it provides for finding alternative energy sources. The best example of growth, said Flavin, are the biofuels, which have become a 'boom industry,' attracting venture capitalists and the like, said Flavin."

The Epoch Times | Reading the Vital Signs of the World: "The record production and consumption masks the other news in Vital Signs that is alarming. For the economic gains there was a high cost in natural resources, most of which are not renewable. Behind the prosperity and unprecedented consumption lies a very troubling fact that the majority of the major ecosystems—like fresh water and clean energy—are being pushed beyond their sustainable limits.

'Business as usual is harming the Earth's ecosystems and the people who depend on them,' said Erik Assadourian, Vital Signs 2006-2007 project director. 'If everyone consumed at the average level of high-income countries, the planet could sustainably support only 1.8 billion people, not today's population of 6.4 billion.'"

The Epoch Times | Reading the Vital Signs of the World: "The world productivity increased last year according to a variety of economic indicators. The gross world product (GWP)—the sum of all finished goods and services—reached 59.6 trillion. Important components of the economy like steel production were up as was aluminum production. More vehicles—45.6 million—were produced than ever before. Meat production was also up.

These facts and similar trends are discussed in Worldwatch Institute's, Vital Signs 2006-200"

KurzweilAI.net
"What surprises me is how few people have been working on higher-level theories of how thinking works. That's been a big disappointment," says Marvin Minsky, whose forthcoming book, The Emotion Machine, reinterprets the human mind as a "cloud of resources," or mini-machines that turn on and off depending on the situation and give rise to our various emotional and mental states.

: "a computer needs to know a couple million things in order to make common-sense connections."

ID21 - communicating development research: "Some key issues in the official as well as private flows include:

* China’s has invested three quarters of its US$660 billion foreign reserves in the USA. But any shift of official flows towards assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar are likely to lead to a decline in the dollar which could in turn result in a sharp slowdown in the USA and world economy.
* Asian central banks are starting to reassess their investment strategies and diversifying their portfolios towards assets in other countries so that the risks related to possible strong dollar devaluation are reduced.
* For China, inflows of private foreign direct investment (FDI) is a means to acquire foreign technology, while FDI to other developed or developing countries means establishing distribution networks abroad and relocate traditional industries to countries with lower wages.
* India through its FDI abroad is seeking new markets, establishing distribution networks, acquiring foreign technologies and brand names
* China and India’s recent need for natural resources to sustain their high growth rate is an important factor for the investments abroad."

KurzweilAI.net
The coming elimination of the barrier between living and nonliving materials will lead to "animats" (living materials) -- nanobiotechnology devices that can survive and function inside human beings, derive energy from biological metabolism, and copy themselves by molecular self-assembly. When that moment happens, it very likely may be beyond our control....

PINR - Economic Brief: The New Role of Coal in Energy Security: "ore than any other energy source, coal increased its share of production, consumption and exports in energy markets during the last two years. The analysis of the current trends and policies in the energy industry suggest that a revival of coal is destined to last for the foreseeable future, which will have important consequences for both political decision-makers and investors.
"

Why Dollar Hegemony Is Unhealthy: The World�s Dangerous Dependence on the US Dollar Risks Hurting All - Social and Economic Policy - Global Policy Forum: "East Asian countries, especially China, have been particularly willing to run trade surpluses with the US because this has fuelled export-led growth. These countries rely on exports to keep their factories operating. Export success then attracts foreign direct investment that advances development. Undervalued exchange rates are vital for this strategy as it keeps exports competitive. Countries have therefore channeled their trade surpluses into dollars, keeping the dollar overvalued and enabling them to sell in the US market. This explains both the continuing strong demand for dollars despite the US trade deficit and the dollar�s dominance in official foreign-exchange holdings."

Why Dollar Hegemony Is Unhealthy: The World�s Dangerous Dependence on the US Dollar Risks Hurting All - Social and Economic Policy - Global Policy Forum: "With US Federal Reserve chairman warning about inflation, the US dollar is in the news these days, and there�s a sense that the world economy has become excessively reliant on the dollar. This reliance smacks of dysfunctional co-dependence whereby the US and the rest of the world both rely on the dollar�s strength, but neither is well served by it.

The US dollar is the world�s premiere currency, with approximately two thirds of world official foreign-exchange holdings being dollars. Moreover, many countries appear willing to run sustained trade surpluses with the US, supplying everything from t-shirts to Porsches in return for additional dollar holdings. This willingness to exchange valuable resources for paper IOUs represents a form of dollar tribute."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Undoubtedly, most of Russia's crude oil exports to Asia will go to China. Relations between Russia and China are at their strongest ever. In addition to unified foreign policy positions against Washington's regime change goals, Moscow and Beijing have cultivated close military and energy trade relations. China has also strengthened its energy relations with Iran and Venezuela, inking multibillion dollar energy investment deals with both countries in the past two years."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "Russia's foreign policy has increasingly diverged from U.S. foreign policy in the past several years. During the past 18 months, conflict has replaced divergence. Moscow has assertively pursued stronger military, political and economic relations with countries whose governments have been targeted for regime change by Washington. These include Iran, Syria, Venezuela and the Palestinian leadership."

Are you reading the news? (July 2006) - News - PhysicsWeb: "The researchers found that the overall half-life distribution follows a power law, which indicates that most news items have a very short lifetime, although a few continue to be accessed well beyond this period. The average half-life of a news item is just 36 hours, or one and a half days after it is released. "

When humans transcend biology - The Boston Globe: "WITH EVERYTHING else that's happening in the world today, debates about whether humanity should embrace as yet nonexistent technologies that could enhance our physical and intellectual abilities and someday make us ``more than human' may seem frivolous. Nonetheless, a debate on ``transhumanism' has been going on for the past few years, with naysayers and doomsayers on one side, optimistic futurists on the other, and too little in between."

KurzweilAI.net
Tissue-engineering researchers are working on tissue replacement projects for practically every body part -- blood vessels and nerves, muscles, cartilage and bones, esophagus and trachea, pancreas, kidneys, liver, heart and even uterus.
A more immediate goal is to improve upon a multitude of smaller therapies: transplantable valves for ailing hearts, cell-and-gel preparations for crushed nerves, injections of skeletal muscle cells for urinary continence or new salivary gland tissue to rescue radiation patients from dry mouth.

Biologists Take a Turn at Raising Eyebrows - New York Times: "Engineers, particularly of the nuclear kind, are used to seeing the fruits of their knowledge refused by a doubtful or distrusting public. For biologists, this bitter experience has become common only recently as they have gained the power to manipulate the genes of crops, animals and people."

[PINR] 05 July 2006: Intelligence Brief: North Korea's Missile Tests
More revealing will be the response by China and South Korea. If Beijing does not take significant action against Pyongyang after the tests, it will demonstrate that Beijing will maintain its current status-quo policy toward North Korea. If Seoul refrains from harshly criticizing Pyongyang, it will demonstrate that it does not see the missile tests as a significant threat to its interests and will continue to pursue its policy of increasing economic ties with the North. The missile tests could, however, weaken moderates in South Korea and result in the country moving back toward the more hard-line U.S.-Japan policy toward Pyongyang. The coming days will be critical to assess changes in the power balance in this festering East Asian conflict.

People's Daily Online -- China now 4th largest economy, says WB: "China has overtaken Britain by the tiniest of margins to become the world's fourth-largest economy, according to the World Bank's latest calculations.

The World Bank said that by its official measure China produced US$2.263825 trillion in output in 2005, just US$94 million, or 0.004 per cent, more than Britain."

The United States, Japan and Germany remain the world's first-, second- and third-largest economies respectively, according to the bank, which posted its 2005 rankings on its website over the weekend.

ABS-CBN Interactive: "Yet, for all its engagement with the world, many observers and analysts also ask if the US is retreating from the international legal system. The Washington watchers have noted that, especially under the Bush administration, America has walked away from important agreements that its allies have embraced or espoused."

FileContent (Objet application/pdf) In examining these issues, this report offers an overview of four groups of factors that the
authors have identified as the root causes of conflict and insecurity in today’s world and the
likely determinants of future conflict:
1 Climate change
2 Competition over resources
3 Marginalisation of the majority world
4 Global militarisation

People's Daily Online -- Democracy makes a difference: "China and the West are at different stages of development. While the West is already in the post-industrial era, industrialization and the universal application of information technology has yet to be completed in China."

Introduction. The world of security and peace research in a 40-year perspective — SIPRI Yearbook 2006: "Notions of danger and security have also become more complex over the past 40 years, shifting away—in particular—from any sense that armaments are the core of the problem. A wider spectrum of trans-state, intra-state and personal violence has taken the place of state-to-state conflict, and the salience of ‘human security’ threats such as epidemic disease and natural disasters has grown. Non-state actors of all kinds have gained in power, as security menaces but potentially also as contributors to solutions. Different levels of security response, from sub-national through national and regional to global, need to be integrated and correctly
applied."

Introduction. The world of security and peace research in a 40-year perspective — SIPRI Yearbook 2006: "In its 40 years of existence, SIPRI has witnessed a shift from the clear-cut bipolar confrontation of the cold war to a much more complicated strategic environment. No simple formula such as North–South or West–West confrontation, a new US ‘empire’, or the identification of human categories like terrorism or Islam as ‘the’ enemy can be either intellectually or morally satisfying. "

Conflict: "The nature of conflict is changing, non-state actors, terrorism and fragmentation of violence have become recurring themes in the past years. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has released it’s 2006 year book outlining conflict situations across the globe.

Whilst the number of conflicts has abated from 31 in 1991 to an ‘official’ figure of 17 in 2005, the global environment of instability has intensified, leaving a much more disjointed picture of global security. "

KurzweilAI.net
The Universe had no unique beginning, instead, the countless "alternative worlds" of string theory may actually have existed, said Stephen Hawking of the University of Cambridge and Thomas Hertog of the European Laboratory for Particle Physics at CERN in Geneva.

Foreign Affairs - Book Review - The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times - Odd Arne Westad: "The Cold War began and ended in Europe, but some of its most severe effects were felt in the Third World. Despite the fact that both the United States and the Soviet Union could claim impressive anticolonial credentials, they viewed the upheavals set in motion by decolonization as an extension of their confrontation. The consequent interventions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America tended to extend and accentuate local quarrels, with dismal consequences for all. In the end, it was Moscow's blundering into Afghanistan that hastened the collapse of the Soviet system."

Foreign Affairs - Book Review - Before the Next Attack: Preserving Civil Liberties in an Age of Terrorism - Bruce Ackerman: "Terrorist attacks on democracies have awful but predictable effects: they trigger public panic and lead politicians to pass restrictive laws with the promise of greater security. In this brilliant study, a Yale legal scholar outlines proposals aimed to prevent the abuses of presidential power that could all too easily result from a future attack."

Humans have to learn their social skills from scratch, taking in new
information and evolving their behaviors accordingly as they mature.
Robots, on the other hand, are equipped with ready-to-go programmed
skills. This may be a mistake, according to researchers at the
Institute of Cognitive Sciences and Technology in Italy.
SOURCES:
Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies,
http://www.istc.cnr.it

Political Affairs Magazine - The Brave New World Of Genetics: "The brave new world of genetically designed future may still be some distance away, but the threat of its insidious arrival through selective abortion and consequent reducing heterogeneity of the gene pool still remains. The heart of this is the belief that all human characteristics are genetically determined –– from disease to obesity. If we press the right buttons and take out these genes, the human population would be better off: this is the new eugenics program. It is time that society wakes up to what is on offer and takes a reasoned stand on this. With large parts of today’s scientific community getting co-opted into this new genetic wisdom and with billions of dollars in profits from their patents, the scientific community cannot be the sole arbiter of such decisions. "

First Molecular Proof That Some Aspects of Aging Are Out of Our Control: "There’s no argument that eating well, exercising wisely, and avoiding high risk behaviors can increase one’s chances for a longer, healthier old age. But it’s also obvious that in many ways the aging process is out of our control; that despite our best efforts (in concert with a genetic make-up that makes us more or less susceptible to certain diseases) our cells and tissues ultimately degenerate and eventually die. "

PINR - Economic Brief: Fallout from Energy Trends: "ecent economic forecasts point to the emergence of new energy players on the global scene. Russia, though never fading completely from the world scene, is coming back with a new marketing brand as an energy supplier. Venezuela is catching world attention by its open defiance of the United States. The Central Asian states of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and the Caspian littoral republic of Azerbaijan, have become key to energy diversity long sought by the West. Iran, too, can openly threaten the West and affect world energy and futures markets by using energy as a geopolitical weapon. In and of itself, these trends are nothing new -- OPEC used oil as a successful geopolitical tool in the 1970s, profoundly affecting the global economy. Today's major investment trends and calculations point to the accumulation of vast capital earned from oil sales in states that lack the developed, diversified economies of countries dependent on oil. "

ISN Publishing House: Global Responses to Global Threats: Sustainable Security for the 21st Century: "The authors argue that international terrorism is a relatively minor threat when compared to other more serious global trends. The report offers an overview of four factors identified as the root causes of conflict and insecurity: climate change, competition over resources, marginalization of the majority world and global militarization. The authors propose a new approach to global security that does not attempt to unilaterally control threats through the use of force, but rather aims to cooperatively resolve the root causes of those threats."

Gmail - Eldis Conflict and Security Reporter
This article presents a new approach for assessing the impact of environment on domestic armed conflict by using geo-referenced data and small geographical units of analysis. It addresses some of the most important factors assumed to be influenced by global warming: land degradation, freshwater scarcity, and population density and change. The preliminary results indicate that the relationships between local level demographic/environmental factors and conflict are not uniform.

Foreign Affairs - India and the Balance of Power - C. Raja Mohan: "After more than a half century of false starts and unrealized potential, India is now emerging as the swing state in the global balance of power. In the coming years, it will have an opportunity to shape outcomes on the most critical issues of the twenty-first century: the construction of Asian stability, the political modernization of the greater Middle East, and the management of globalization."

Foreign Affairs - India and the Balance of Power - C. Raja Mohan: "India is on the verge of becoming a great power and the swing state in the international system. As a large, multiethnic, economically powerful, non-Western democracy, it will play a key role in the great struggles of the coming years. Washington has recognized the potential of a U.S.-Indian alliance, but translating that potential into reality will require engaging India on its own terms."

Report Details Failure of U.S. Prison System -- (The Seattle Times -- June 8, 2006)
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003046811_prison08.html
Americans spend $60 billion a year to imprison 2.2 million people - exceeding any other nation - but receive a dismal return on the investment, according to a report to be released today by a commission urging greater public scrutiny of what goes on behind bars. The report says legislators passing get-tough laws have packed the nation's jails and prisons to overflowing with convicts, most poor and uneducated, but have done little to help them emerge as better citizens upon release.

Make Oil from Just about Anything: "Any carbon-based waste, from turkey guts to used tires, can, by adding sufficient heat and pressure, be turned into oil through a process called thermo-depolymerization, This is very similar to how nature produces oil, but with this technology, the process is expedited by millions of years to achieve the same byproduct. Proponents of this technology claim that a ton of turkey waste can cough up about 600 pounds of petroleum."

Remove the Salt: "According to the United Nations, water supply shortages will affect billions of people by the middle of this century. Desalination, basically removing the salt and minerals out of seawater, is one way to provide potable water in parts of the world where supplies are limited. The problem with this technology is that it is expensive and uses a lot of energy. Scientists are working toward better processes where inexpensive fuels can heat and evaporate the water before running it through membranes with microscopic pores to increase efficiency."

Top 10 Emerging Environmental Technologies: "Wasteful energy policies, overuse of resources, water supply shortages, global climate change, and deforestation are just some of the issues experts say need to be addressed for humans to achieve sustainable living on this planet. By the year 2025, an additional 2.9 billion people will strain tightening water supplies, and the world's energy needs will go up 60 percent by 2030, according to the United Nations. LiveScience looks at 10 technologies—some old, some new, some a bit offbeat—that might help make the future a little brighter. "

Our urban world: "Cities in the 21st century face unprecedented challenges. The pressing shortfalls in urban water, sanitation and waste-management services and the deteriorating quality of air and water in city environments are experienced in a context of deepening income inequities. If no serious action is taken, the urban slum population is expected to hit 1.4 billion by 2020. In part, global interest in cities peaks when this projected state of the world confronts us, whereby, in just 14 years, one of every three city dwellers will live in impoverished, overcrowded and insecure conditions."

Our urban world: "We are at a pivotal point, about to cross the 50-per-cent threshold to an urbanized planet. This is our first urban century. The global urban population will increase by two billion, reaching close to five billion in 2030. This means that every year, the world's urban population will increase by about 70 million, equivalent to seven new megacities. Many of our global cities have grown to unthinkable size, and are reaching the 20-million and 30-million population range."

World Trends Research - Major Trends Shaping Global Context: "The modernization, urbanization and globalization of China, India and other Asian nations will be the most dynamic and convulsive events of the coming decades. Billions of people will have their personal and collective lives transformed to a greater degree, in a shorter space of time, than has been experienced by any people ever before. "

Chindia at a Crossroads - BusinessWeek Online - MSNBC.com: "The economic ascendancy of India and China is naturally one of the most widely discussed trends in today's globalized world. The countries' advantages are formidable: huge surpluses in working-age populations; cost competitiveness; efficiencies in manufacturing and services; and huge markets increasingly integral to the business strategies of multinational companies, all make them structural drivers for global productivity and disinflation.

The two economies will be the dominant growth stories for the next 30 years. By 2015, India's gross domestic product will reach the $2 trillion mark while China's will surpass $6 trillion, driven by the powerful combination of favorable demographics, structural reforms, and globalization. There is little doubt that the importance of the two countries is only likely to rise."

War on terrorism 'self-defeating,' warns UK think-tank - Irna: "International terrorism is actually a relatively minor threat when compared to other more serious global trends, and that current responses to those trends are likely to increase, rather than decrease, the risks of further terrorist attacks, ORG warned.

Instead its four alternative root causes of conflict were likely to lead to 'substantial global and regional instability, and large- scale loss of life, of a magnitude unmatched by other potential threats.'
The report highlighted that the current responses to security threats were characterised as a 'control paradigm' - an attempt to maintain the status quo through military means and control insecurity without addressing the root causes."

War on terrorism 'self-defeating,' warns UK think-tank - Irna: "The British government's obsession with the 'war on terror' is counterproductive and distracting politicians from more fundamental threats to global security, a leading independent UK think-tank warned Monday.

The Oxford Research Group (ORG) said that the most likely causes of future conflict are climate change, competition for natural resources, social and economic marginalisation and militarization."

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "China now provides a major source of leverage against the United States for some Latin American and Caribbean countries. As in many other parts of the developing world, China is redrawing geopolitical alliances in ways that help propel China's rise as a global superpower. "

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR): "hina's forays into Latin America are part of its grand strategy to acquire 'comprehensive national power' to become a 'global great power that is second to none.' Aiming to secure access to the continent's vast natural resources and markets, China is forging deep economic, political and military ties with most of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. "