Efforts at innovation Efforts at innovation are carried out by actors who perceive that,through the changes,they can realize net gains, solve particular problems, or better satisfy their own needs or those of others (Davis and North, 1971). Typically, these various motives can only be distinguished analytically.

In sum, the establishment and development of new technological systems will require actors with social power, knowledge and motivation to bring about the necessary changes in material, cultural, and social organizational conditions. Otherwise, there will be no new appropriate technology systems!

No technological innovation will be introduced or incorporated into production, distribution, and use systems (PDU systems) if there are no actors ? entrepreneurs and change agents ? who are motivated and push for its introduction and development. These actors, in addition to their motivation or interests, must possess or mobilize the social powers to bring about the necessary socio-technical restructuring.

Bruland and Mowery (2005) single out two other innovations ? on the institutional level ? that played a key role in the First Industrial Revolution: The development of new forms of company law and finance that supported the growth of corporate firms, and the rise of managerial control of production which transformed workplace organization and scale. This is the basis of the subsequent growth in factory production. ?Managers of ?early industrial enterprises confronted serious challenges in the assembly and maintenance of a suitable workforce, the control of work, and the adoption of new techniques and organizational structures for production activities by a restructured workforce?.two distinct, though clearly overlapping difficulties: the aversion of workers to entering the new large enterprises with their unaccustomed rules and discipline and the shortage of skilled and reliable labour.? ?The emergence of rule-based disciplinary methods, the laborious construction of supervisory systems, and the habituation of workers to an organized and controlled working day emerged slowly but were central developments of early industrialization.

A type of ?Industrial Enlightenment included the surveying and codification of artisanal techniques in published manuals, handbooks, textbooks and pamphlets on industrial practices. Patterns of collective learning and knowledge accumulation during the Industrial Revolution were facilitated as more and more learning was codified, accelerating the diffusion of industrially relevant knowledge across sectors.

Brewing and milling were the first sectors to deploy large, professional managed enterprises with national distribution systems.

Among others, Rogers (1995) in his comprehensive overview of the diffusion of innovations, has identified key factors that influence the potential adopters of an innovation: (1) the relative advantage of the innovation; (2) its compatibility, with the potential adopter?s way of doing things and with established social norms; (3) the complexityof the innovation; (4) Trialability, the ease with which the innovation can b tested by a potential adopter; observability, the ease with which the innovation can be evaluated after trial.

Every new innovation consists of a complex of existing ideas, capabilities, skills, resources, etc. This implies that the greater the variety of these factors within a given system, the greater the scope for them to be combined in different ways, producing new innovations which will be both more complex and more sophisticated.

The process approach to innovation and technological development is one of those most established in the social sciences. Often these models were developed identifying different stages or phases (see below). Basic research -->applied research--->development--->testing/evaluation--> manufacturing/packaging--->marketing/dissemination

The breadth and complexity of knowledge bases for many areas of innovation today mean that even large firms cannot rely simply on their own innovative capacity. Often the reason for buying up other companies is not precisely because of their promise of profitability but because of the need to gain access to particular areas of knowledge.

Organizations are formally and intentionally constructed systems and have explicit goals or purposes and means/production processes to achieve them. Organizations operate as agents or collective actors.

Numerous studies focusing on explaining differences in economic Numerous studies focusing on explaining differences in economic growth across countries and regions at different levels of development ( Faberberg, 2005). Fagerberg (1987, 1988) identified three factors affecting differential growth rates across countries: innovation, imitation, and other efforts related to the commercial exploitation of technology.

However, as Fagerberg (2005) points out, ?Different, and to some extent competing, perspectives should not always be seen as a problem: many social phenomena are too complex to be analyzed properly from a single disciplinary perspective.?

In many instances, particular interest groups and social agents are threatened by the developments associated with the innovations. They may resist the developments and succeed in reorienting or blocking them.

The problem is that the "new" has to grow within the framework of the "old" socio-technical systems and institutional framework. The "new" cannot be clearly perceived and is created based on our experience with the "old." Social actors ?private and public, individual and collective? play the roles of entrepreneurs and change agents pushing new products and establishing and developing new systems.

Innovations of the ?breakthrough? or ?systemic? nature are increasingly dependent upon bridging science and technology in new ways. The dynamic interplay between science and technology, and amongst many other elements comprising the environment of innovation, has changed throughout history and is changing rapidly today

Socio-technical systems are exemplified by transport systems, water systems, communication systems all made up, as suggested above, of complexes of components.

Other components are the particular human agents (persons and groups) who have the skills and know-how to use and maintain the technology. Technology is then only one component linked to a number of other components in a social system designed to accomplish tasks and to solve problems.

Technologies extend human capabilities.

Product innovations are new or better material goods as well as services. Process innovations are new or better ways of producing goods and services. The innovations may be technological, technical, or organizational in character.

Technologieare artifacts (physical and non-physical human constructions) used in social action to solve certain problems, to produce certain products, or to earn income and consume. This definition encompasses the more conventional notion that technology is any tool or physical equipment but includes techniques and methods of doing or making.

It is often claimed that that science focuses on knowing ?why?, that is comprehending phenomena and the principles underlying them, while technology is concerned with ?knowing how? to make or produce things; it may be referred to as ?know-how?. Often enough there is a ?reciprocity?, movement back and forth. In general, the boundaries are highly fuzzy and shifting.

science and technology In a social science perspective, science and technology are particular bodies of knowledge, including the knowledge of the means by which new knowledge is obtained

People's Daily Online -- Senior CPC theorist: three trends mark China's development in 21st century: "Zheng said the population of China will reach 1.5 billion in the 2030s or 2040s and it will be the top priority for China to solve the subsistence and development issues for such a huge population, or one fifth of the world's total.
'The Chinese people will be busy with their own affairs for generations to come and there is no need at all for the country to threaten anybody or any nation, ' Zheng said.
The senior theorist said China will unswervingly take part in the economic globalization and deepen co-existence and cooperation with all relevant countries worldwide in a bid to achieve win-win results.
China will blaze new trails in developing industries and an energy-saving society and rely mainly on its own to solve the issues in development, he said. "

FUTUREdition Volume 8, Number 16One-Fifth of Human Genes Have Been Patented -- (National Geographic -- October 20, 2005) .
A new study shows that 20% of human genes have been patented in the United States, primarily by private firms and universities. The study marks the first time that a detailed map has been created to match patents to specific physical locations on the human genome. Researchers can patent genes because they are potentially valuable research tools, useful in diagnostic tests or to discover and produce new drugs.

KurzweilAI.net: "In the evolution of life-forms, the purpose is to survive. In an evolutionary algorithm (a computer program that simulates evolution to solve a problem) applied to, say, investing in the stock market, the purpose is to make money. Simply having more information does not necessarily result in a better fit. A superior solution for a purpose may very well involve less data.
The concept of 'complexity' is often used to describe the nature of the information created by an evolutionary process. Complexity is a close fit to the concept of order "

KurzweilAI.net: "Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. Each epoch of evolution has progressed more rapidly by building on the products of the previous stage. "

KurzweilAI.net: "Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. Each epoch of evolution has progressed more rapidly by building on the products of the previous stage. "

KurzweilAI.net: "Evolution works through indirection: evolution created humans, humans created technology, humans are now working with increasingly advanced technology to create new generations of technology. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. "

From Wall Street to Beijing: Global Finance Has New Rules, New Players - Knowledge@Wharton: "�Throughout the 1980s, the U.S. was the driver of the world economy, and the world focused on exporting to it. The reality is that in the last two, three or four years the real growth engines are India and China,� with Japan now beginning to emerge as well, said James R. Birle, Jr., managing director and head of global equity capital markets at Merrill Lynch."

From Wall Street to Beijing: Global Finance Has New Rules, New Players - Knowledge@Wharton: "The rising power of hedge funds and private equity investment, continued sharp competition among Wall Street firms, and growth in China and India are the key drivers of global finance today, according to industry leaders at a recent Wharton Finance Conference whose theme was From Wall Street to Beijing: Thriving in a Changing Environment."

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Millions 'will flee degradation': "Millions 'will flee degradation'
There will be as many as 50 million environmental refugees in the world in five years' time. "

Scientific publishing | The paperless library | Economist.com: "This is now changing. According to the OECD report, some 75% of scholarly journals are now online. Entirely new business models are emerging; three main ones were identified by the report's authors. There is the so-called big deal, where institutional subscribers pay for access to a collection of online journal titles through site-licensing agreements. There is open-access publishing, typically supported by asking the author (or his employer) to pay for the paper to be published. Finally, there are open-access archives, where organisations such as universities or international laboratories support institutional repositories. Other models exist that are hybrids of these three, such as delayed open-access, where journals allow only subscribers to read a paper for the first six months, before making it freely available to everyone who wishes to see it."

Ray Kurzweil deciphers a brave new world | Newsmakers | CNET News.comBut the condensed version goes like this: Thanks to Moore's Law and other exponential growth rates, by 2030 a $1 computer will be as powerful as the human brain. Information technology's exponential curve will fuel advances in biology, robotics, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence- with world-shattering results including radical life extension and practically omniscient and omnipotent abilities for humans who elect self-augmentation.

Futures PresentationsFutures Links:

Institute of the Future, Anne Arundel CC, Maryland: http://www.aacc.edu/future/default.cfm

World Future Society: http://www.wfs.org/

Prof. Roger Caldwell, Univ of Arizona, Class Website: http://cals.arizona.edu/futures/

Hawaii Center for Futures Studies: http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/

Bruce’s Strategy Page: http://staffwww.fullcoll.edu/bcordell/strategy.htm

Futures Links: "Futures Links:
Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process
World Future Society
Plausible Futures Newsletter
Institute for the Future
Shaping Tomorrow: anticipate the future
World Futures Studies Federation
Institute for Alternative Futures"

Newsletter UK 9/2005: "Futures studies usually focus on the new that will come, and not so much on the old that will disappear. We are going to remedy that on this theme meeting about the 'living dead' categories that haunt our heads and control our view of realities, even though they already have gone or in actuality have lived out their time. Many of the products we use in our everyday lives will be gone in 15 years - e.g. the fixed line phone. Many of the systems, regulations and institutions by which we organize ourselves today will also likely disappear: counties, shopping hours legislation, and perhaps also office hours and homes for senior citizens. The development creates so many new things that it becomes increasingly important to clear out the old stuff. We will provide an argued candidate list of 'zombies'. "

Robert Fisk: War Is the "Total Failure of the Human Spirit" - Security Council - Global Policy Forum: "It's strange because if you have a crime in Santa Fe, the cops come along. First thing they do is look for the motive. When you have an international crime against humanity on the scale of September 11, 2001. The one thing you're not allowed to do is look for the motive for the crime. And I think that by and large for many months Americans were prevented from looking for the motive. By the time they could look for the motive, we were bombing Afghanistan and saying there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq."

Robert Fisk: War Is the "Total Failure of the Human Spirit" - Security Council - Global Policy Forum: "I think you have a big problem with the lobby groups. I don�t mean just the Israeli lobby, I mean the gun lobby and so on. I think you have a major problem with lobby groups in Washington and every president comes along saying he's going to clean that out but he never does. Actually, Bush didn't say that, not George W., anyway. But I think you have a much bigger problem in the United States where on issues like the Middle East, for example, your voice is simply not heard unless it is pro- Israeli, pro-American policy in the Middle East, etcetera, up on the hill. You'll get a few brave souls, Paul Finley. Look what happened to him. But basically you won't get represented on these critical issues. "

Robert Fisk: War Is the "Total Failure of the Human Spirit" - Security Council - Global Policy Forum: "You have a bigger problem in the United States in that, as I understand it -- well, I'll quote a U.S. Marine who said to me in San Diego a few months ago, 'Our problem is we have this kind of false democracy,' he said, 'We vote for our senators and congressman for what they say they'll give us and they give us something and say something completely different. "

Modeling of long-term fossil fuel consumption shows 14.5 degree hike in temperature: "If humans continue to use fossil fuels in a business as usual manner for the next several centuries, the polar ice caps will be depleted, ocean sea levels will rise by seven meters and median air temperatures will soar 14.5 degrees warmer than current day. "

People's Daily Online -- US tops the world with 2,267,800 in jail: "US tops the world with 2,267,800 in jail. The number of American prison inmates tops the world at 2,267,800 and continues to grow, according to a report released Oct. 23 by the statistics authority of the US Department of Justice. "

People's Daily Online -- French scholar: The world needs China: "In today's world, various dangers and crises, such as global warming, epidemic, poverty, terrorism, control over new science and technology, and fragile financial system, constitute the common challenges that all countries must face. "

People's Daily Online -- China replaces US to be Australia's biggest source of imports: "China has replaced the United States to become Australia's biggest source of imports.
In the year to September, China, which includes Hong Kong, accounted for 14.3 percent of Australian imports, Australian Associated Press (AAP) quoted new figures released Friday as reporting.
This compared to 13.9 percent which the United States accounted of Australian imports in the same period. "

People's Daily Online -- China becomes major victim of trade protectionism: "China became one of the major victims of trade protectionism in the past nine months or so, suffering from a wide range of trade barriers including anti-dumping, safeguard measures, subsidies and countervailing measures and special safeguard measures.
According to the China's Foreign Trade Report (fall, 2005) released on Friday by the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three quarters of this year, China incurred trade frictions involving 8.9 billion US dollars, a growth of more than 700 percent over the year-earlier level. "

The work has also been about trying to understand how the key bureaucratic components that are responsible for executing the states’ monopoly of force and coercion—the military—were organised, financed, equipped, deployed, controlled and managed then and since. The next challenge must be focused on moving the agenda forward, motivating for a second phase that addresses the conceptual suggestions of a regional security sector project based on national security interests, inherent capacities, and geophysical and strategic advantages.

Most military assistance was to support the colonial and settler project against the nationalist armed struggle project, until full decolonisation in 1994. Thereafter, support switched to the independent
states in different forms. The most interesting example of this was Britain’s support of the Mozambican Armed Forces after the Rome Treaty of 1992, hosted in eastern Zimbabwe.

SPACE.com -- U.S. Military Wants to Own the Weather: "While efforts to tame storms have so far been clouded by failure, some researchers aren�t willing to give up the fight. And even if changing the weather proves overly challenging, residents and disaster officials can do a better job planning and reacting.
In fact, military officials and weather modification experts could be on the verge of joining forces to better gauge, react to, and possibly nullify future hostile forces churned out by Mother Nature.
While some consider the idea farfetched, some military tacticians have already pondered ways to turn weather into a weapon."

People's Daily Online -- Expert says China to become world's No. 1 automaker by 2020: "An economist has said China's auto industry is to experience rapid growth in the coming 15 years and the country will become the world's largest automaker by 2020.
'China's per capita GDP has topped 1,000 US dollars, which means a growing number of Chinese citizens will be able to afford private cars and the auto industry will outgrow the country's GDP, ' said Dr. Feng Fei, an economist with the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese cabinet. "

Reuters Business Channel | Reuters.com: "Global goods trade will grow slightly more in 2006 than this year, World Trade Organization economists predicted on Thursday, but the WTO chief voiced concern at an overall trend toward lower growth."